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    Gold Mover Lower as Consumer Confidence Moves Higher

    Last updated 16 hours ago

    Commentary for Tuesday, July 29, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $5.00 today at $1298.30 as consumer confidence moved higher. The Dollar Index (81.21) has also been generally higher over the last 5 days and crude oil while somewhat weaker has remained in the triple digits ($101.67).

    I would also say that early gains in overnight Hong Kong and London trading turned into profit taking opportunities when escalating Middle East violence failed to ignite safe-haven buying.

    The Federal Open Market Committee began a meeting today which will conclude tomorrow – not much buzz but you never know these days – let’s wait for released information.        

    This from Bloomberg – “Confidence among consumers soared in July to an almost seven-year high as increased employment opportunities led to brighter views of the U.S. economy.

    The Conference Board’s index advanced to 90.9, the highest since October 2007, from 86.4 in June, the New York-based private research group said today. The gauge exceeded the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists.

    “Employment conditions improved, gas prices are lower, equity markets remain robust, and that’s pretty much it,” said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. “The fact that confidence is rising at a fairly steady rate implies that employment growth is going to continue at a fairly healthy rate.”

    More Americans than at any time in the past six years viewed jobs as abundant and a greater share anticipated their incomes will increase, laying the groundwork for a pickup in consumer spending. Progress in the labor market and other data showing limited traction in the housing market probably explain why Federal Reserve policy makers are forecast to keep interest rates low well into 2013 even as they trim monetary stimulus.

    Home prices rose in the 12 months ended in May at the slowest pace in more than a year as a lull in residential real estate limited appreciation. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices in 20 U.S. cities increased 9.3 percent from May 2013 after a 10.8 percent gain in the year ended in April. Compared with the prior month, home prices fell for the first time in two years, the group said today in New York.”

    Silver closed up $0.02 at $20.54 and actual physical sales with the coin dealers we talk to are disappointing – not terrible but they seem stuck in the typical summer doldrums.

    Platinum followed gold lower down $7.00 at $1483.00 and palladium was off $2.00 at $878.00. Kenny moved rhodium spot to $1270.00 today and we are selling the world standard Baird Rhodium 1 oz Bar for $1390.00 delivered – still undervalued and the physical market remains active with investors. 

    This from Kira Brecht (Kitco/TraderPlanet) - Who Wins the Tug Of War in Gold? Geopolitics Versus Better Growth Outlook - Comex December gold futures closed out last week's action at nearly unchanged levels, after trading both higher and lower intra-week. The gold market is caught in a tug of war right now, supported on the downside by concerns about geopolitical uncertainty, but beaten down by concerns that stronger economic growth will lead to Fed rate hikes sooner rather than later. 

    Let's take a close look at both sides of the coin to see who might hold the edge going forward —gold bulls or gold bears?

    Over the weekend, the cease-fire in the Gaza broke down. And, German government leaders began to prepare the public against the consequence of sanctions against Russia as the European Union is expected to up the ante this week on its economic response to the crisis in the Ukraine. Could these situations continue to escalate? Could Russia adopt an energy embargo on its oil exports? What impact could that have on the European Union and even the global economy?

    This multitude of global hot spots, instability and political, military and economic concerns has put a bid into the gold market in recent days and weeks. Dips in gold have been used as buying opportunities.

    On the other hand, this week will usher in an economic heavy data week in the U.S. — with forecasts showing expectations of generally improving economic conditions. That in turn pushes the U.S. Federal Reserve closer and closer to the timing of its first monetary policy rate hike.

    On Wednesday, the second quarter GDP advance is due for release, with Nomura forecasting an annualized rate of growth at 3.1%.  That would be a strong rebound following the 2.9% decline in U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter. Also, on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will conclude its two-day meeting. For now, no major new announcements are expected though modest changes to the language surrounding the nature of the economic outlook are possible. Then, finally on Friday, the U.S. Labor department will release the July non-farm payrolls report. Nomura expects a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls.

    The brightening economic outlook in the U.S. has been a reminder to gold investors that the timing of the first rate hike is coming closer. For now, most market watchers expect a hike in the second or third quarter of 2015. But, what could this stronger economic data mean to the inflation front? And, is the Fed perhaps already behind the curve, letting inflationary pressures brew?

    With these two underlying bullish (geopolitical uncertainty) and bearish factors (concerns over economic improvement and rate hikes) buffeting gold back and forth, near term trade could be choppy, volatile and see whipsaw type of trade amid illiquid late summer trading conditions.

    Both the geopolitical developments and economic improvements have risks ahead. Let's dig a little deeper.  Looking at the Russian-Ukraine situation, most countries in the European Union and Eastern Europe are very dependent on Russia for their energy needs for both crude oil and natural gas.

    "A Russian curtailment of energy exports, even a short-lived one, would likely plunge continental Europe, if not the global economy, into another recession," according to Jay Bryson, global economist at Wells Fargo.  While a Russian decision to halt exports would hurt their export revenue significantly, it remains a lethal economic weapon in their arsenal if the situation continues to escalate. Euro zone or global recession would likely prove gold supportive as global central banks would be forced to maintain their historically accommodative stances.

    Meanwhile, shifting to another global hot spot, oil export questions are heating up. Over the weekend, news broke that Baghdad is disputing the right of the Iraqi Kurds to sell oil, and have threatened legal action. Nearby crude oil futures remain above $100 per barrel, despite the ever-growing levels of U.S. domestic production.

    With global crude oil production sitting at roughly 92 million barrels per day, there is some spare capacity in the global oil marketplace, but not much. Spare capacity refers to the amount of extra crude oil the world could produce on short notice if needed. With Iraq exporting about 2.9 million barrels per day, the threat of a supply disruption continues to loom large.  Supply disruptions would cause a further spike in oil prices, which at its root is an inflationary impact in the economy.

    With the evolving geopolitical uncertainties seemingly around every corner, sell-offs in gold will likely meet buying interest.

    Finally, looking back at the improving U.S. economic picture, there are some who argue the U.S. Federal Reserve may already be behind the curve in its tightening cycle, which leaves risk for inflation to grow stronger as the economy continues to improve.

    "We still think the evidence is the Fed is behind the curve as the labor market is all but at full employment.  No inflation today, but keep in mind many inflation episodes are commodity driven by stronger worldwide economic demand.  It can come back in a hurry.  As the U.S. economy continues to move forward from here now in the sixth year of expansion from the recession, Fed policy needs to be in neutral and neutral is a few hundred basis points higher from here.  Better get on it.  There is no risk of too-low inflation anymore.  Inflation risks are all on the upside the next few years, according to Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

    While there are plenty of concerns about the so-called "Taylor Rule" which was developed by economist John Taylor about two decades ago —the economic formula projects a fed funds rate about 100 basis points higher than it is now. Does this mean the Fed is ignoring inflation risks? Possibly.

    "The rule relates the appropriate level of Fed funds to the trend rate of growth (assumed to be 2%), to the rate of inflation, plus half the deviation of inflation from target and half the deviation of GDP from potential output. Currently, inflation is 0.5% below target and, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the output gap is 4% (way too wide, in our view, as an estimate, but let’s assume it is right). At the moment, this would deliver a target Taylor rule-consistent rate of 1.25% (2 + 1.5 - 0.25 - 2.0). That is 100bp higher than currently applies, if we take the OECD’s estimate of the output gap," according to BNP Paribas economists.

    Add it all up? The improving economic picture leaves the U.S. economy at risk for above-target inflation, especially with a Fed that could already be behind the curve.  Geopolitical uncertainty will keep a bid under the market. While gold may get knocked back in the near term by improving U.S. economic data, rising inflation may be waiting in the wings, and that tends to be gold-bullish as well.

    This from ONE News - More than 35% of Americans have debts and unpaid bills that have been reported to collection agencies, according to a study released today by the Urban Institute.

    These consumers fall behind on credit cards or hospital bills. Their mortgages, auto loans or student debt pile up, unpaid. Even past-due gym membership fees or cellphone contracts can end up with a collection agency, potentially hurting credit scores and job prospects, said Caroline Ratcliffe, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank.

    "Roughly, every third person you pass on the street is going to have debt in collections," Ratcliffe said. "It can tip employers' hiring decisions, or whether or not you get that apartment."

    The study found that 35.1% of people with credit records had been reported to collections for debt that averaged $5178, based on September 2013 records. The study points to a disturbing trend: The share of Americans in collections has remained relatively constant, even as the country as a whole has whittled down the size of its credit card debt since the official end of the Great Recession in the middle of 2009.

    The above quote about American debt should get everyone’s attention – without a fast way to bankrupt this accumulating debt it will eventually support the idea that cheap money is the only way to move on and still keep the American consumer buying on credit. In the end this debt will support the price of gold. 

    While it may look like a tug of war between the bulls and the bears, in the end both sides of the coin could ultimately prove to be gold bullish.”

    The walk-in cash trade today was again quiet and so were the national phones. The public continues to ignore the safe-haven market.  

    The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “2” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 5) (last Thursday – 5) (last Friday – 4) (Monday – 3). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water and cokes.

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Answers to Some of the Most Common Questions About Investing in Precious Metals

    Last updated 22 hours ago

    Investing in rare coins and precious metals is a great way to diversify your investment portfolio. But finding a reputable precious metal and coin dealer is not easy. Read this article to find out how to locate a good precious metal dealer and start investing in precious metals the right way.

    How Do I Incorporate Coins and Precious Metals in My Investment Portfolio?
    Because the market for gold and silver is larger than the market for platinum and palladium, many investors say that platinum and palladium should comprise no more than five percent of your investment portfolio, compared with 10 percent for silver and gold. In sum, a conservative approach is to use 10 to 20 percent of your investment funds to purchase inflation-sensitive certified rare coins and precious metals.

    How Do I Find the Right Precious Metal Dealer?
    Do not buy from a coin dealer that offers in-house coin and precious metals storage. This is an unsafe way to keep your coins; instead, opt for bank storage or independent storage facilities like CNT Depository, Inc. Do not go to a coin dealer that uses high-pressure sales tactics, either. The best coin dealers do not use commissioned salespeople and never pressure you into making a purchase you are not 100 percent comfortable with.  

    How Do I Distinguish Between Bullion Coins and Certified Rare Coins?
    Bullion coins are minted coins that are not used in day-to-day transactions. Bullion coins made from precious metals are a great investment, as their value will go up or down based on the commodity price. Rarity is often not a factor in the value of collectible coins or bullion.  

    What Should I Know Before Buying Rare Coins Made of Precious Metals?
    Only buy rare coins that are graded by the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS), as this is the most accepted standard among the top dealers in the country. Furthermore, avoid buying rare coins that are less than 30 years old, as they haven’t yet established secondary market pricing.

    For more tips on investing in precious metals and coins, contact California Numismatic Investments, one of the country’s largest precious metal dealers. Call us at (888) 612-2679 or visit our website for more information about investing in precious metals. 

    Gold Closes Almost Unchanged Waiting on Wed Fed Info

    Last updated 1 day 16 hours ago

    Commentary for Monday, July 28, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $0.20 at $1303.30 watching the Federal Reserve and a possible interest rate change this Wednesday.

    I don’t buy the rumor but some believe the Fed will raise rates to stay on top of possible creeping inflation. With pending home sales moving in the wrong direction my money says the Federal Reserve does just what Yellen promised – stay the course, which will support gold.

    Silver closed down $0.06 at $20.52.

    Platinum closed up $12.00 at $1490.00 and palladium up higher by $1.00 at $880.00  

    This from FXEmpire Commentary – “The GBP/USD traded higher as investors squared positions ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy announcement and Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Although the majority of investors believe the Fed will stay the course until its next meeting in September, some feel the need to lighten up on short positions after an eight day decline just in case there are any surprises.

    Position-squaring ahead of the U.S. economic events later this week also helped boost the EUR/USD slightly. Most of the move was attributed to short-covering with very limited speculative buying. There were no economic reports today from the Euro Zone so investors had very little news to trigger a reaction. Technical factors may have also helped underpin the market since several indictors showed the Euro in oversold territory, following last week’s crushing sell-off.

    September crude oil weakened again on Monday, however, the market had reached a technical retracement zone which may encourage profit-taking, short-covering or aggressive counter-trend buying. Fundamentally, a steep increase in gasoline stocks continues to remain the catalyst behind the weaker crude oil prices. Although supply has fallen because of the increased production of gasoline, this is not being driven by true demand for crude oil.

    December Comex Gold futures rebounded for a second day, following the sharp sell-off on July 24. The current chart pattern suggests the market may retracement to $1318.50 to $1325.30 before the next round of selling pressure begins.

    Fundamentally, the market is being underpinned by a slight drop in the U.S. Dollar which is being caused by uncertainty going into the Fed announcement on July 30 and the U.S. jobs report on August 1.

    Two U.S. economic reports today also helped pressure the dollar. Flash Services PMI for July remained unchanged at 61.0, but failed to meet the 62.3 estimate. Some estimates were as low as 59.8. U.S. Pending Home Sales for June fell 1.1%. This was well below the May figure of 6.0%. Traders were looking for a reading of -0.2%.”

    I am a big fan of Moving Averages in the precious metals which can provide additional directional information. But like all technical indicators should be taken with a grain of salt. Some popular averages are 50, 100 and 200 day periods – the shorter ones being more sensitive than longer periods.

    The theory here – underline that word – is that when the moving average is moving lower and the price of gold moves below that average it signals possible further weakness. If the price of gold is moving higher and the price of gold rises above that average it may signal that further buying is in order. 

    Now compare gold’s close today ($1303.30) to its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) ($1293.00) – 100 DMA ($1302.00) and 200 DMA ($1286.00) / it may be significant that today’s gold close is higher than all three moving averages.

    Look also at silver’s close today ($20.51) to its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) ($20.17) – 100 DMA ($20.08) and 200 DMA ($20.33) / it may also be significant that today’s silver close is higher than all three moving averages.

    SINGAPORE, July 28 (Reuters) – “Gold slipped slightly on Monday due to a stronger dollar but held above $1,300 an ounce as its safe-haven appeal was burnished by heightened tensions between the West and Russia, and violence in the Middle East.

        * Spot gold dipped 0.2 percent to $1,305.45 an ounce by 0011 GMT, largely holding the previous session's 1.1 percent gain. The metal logged its second consecutive weekly drop on Friday on strong U.S. economic data.

        * Fighting subsided in Gaza on Sunday after Hamas Islamist militants said they backed a 24-hour humanitarian truce but there was no sign of any comprehensive deal to end fighting with Israel.

        * Fierce clashes between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian rebels continued on Sunday as Europe and the United States prepared economic sanctions on Russia over the conflict.

        * In a measure of investor sentiment, hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bets on gold futures and options as the yellow metal's price rose last week, while slashing net-long positions in silver, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.

        * Russia and Turkey lifted their gold holdings in June as both countries increased their bullion reserves for a third consecutive month, data from the International Monetary Fund showed on Friday.

        * Silver bullion banks Deutsche Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC have been accused of manipulating prices in the multi-billion dollar market in a lawsuit filed on Friday.

        * The company operating the gold price 'fix' has appointed a supervisory committee to oversee the century-old system of benchmarking gold prices ahead of the implementation of stricter regulations, its website showed on Friday.

        * Some disappointing U.S. earnings and weak German economic data pressured world stock markets on Friday.

        * The U.S. dollar hovered near six-month highs against a basket of major currencies early on Monday, holding onto solid gains made last week as investors turned bearish on the euro.”

    The World Gold Council posted a comprehensive report on their site – China’s Gold Market: Progress and Prospects. If you are serious about the price of gold read this report about the positive link between the growing Chinese middle class and gold consumption. I have taken a small quote from the article regarding jewelry stores in China which will give you an idea of the possible scalability of their gold demand.   

    “There are now approximately 100,000 jewellery outlets in China, stocking mostly 24 carat products. The boom in Chinese jewellery consumption has been accompanied by break-neck growth in the number of retail outlets. The first wave of openings targeted wealthier first and second tier cities but in recent years expansion has been concentrated on China’s over 600 third and fourth tier cities. Many of the stores are franchises belonging to the large Hong Kong retailers such as Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook or local heavyweights such as Lao Feng Xiang and China National Gold Group. The latter, for example, has in just a handful of years built a portfolio of 2,200 stores. There are also many smaller, regionally focused groups; mega-stores such as Beijing’s famous CaiBai and retail chains owned by jewellery manufacturers. Growth in the number of shops has occurred hand-in-hand with a huge increase in the number of department stores and shopping malls in China’s cities. Each department store will typically have no less than five jewellery counters and new malls will feature outlets representing several of the famous brands.”

    This comes from Zero Hedge / GoldCore / Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily -

    “The New York Times ran an op-ed piece today by British Conservative backbencher Kwasi Kwarteng, suggesting that China could someday peg its currency to gold, as Britain did in 1821.

    "China has the reserves to do this, and it could have the political will, if the dollar proved to be unreliable as a store of value in the future," he says. "Having expanded its manufacturing base and captured international markets, China may well find a world hooked on its products. It could eventually — in, say, 20 years — peg the renminbi to gold, considering it preferable to the dollar as a store of value, because of its permanence and longevity. With a balanced budget and a gold-backed currency, China’s economy could be even more formidable than it is today. Such a move would truly mark its return as the “Middle Kingdom.”

    Hard as it may be to contemplate today, this scenario would, in many ways, be a more secure basis for an international monetary regime system than the system of floating exchange rates that Nixon inadvertently created in 1971, one that forever overturned the Bretton Woods order."

    It is an interesting article and it is interesting that it was published in The NY Times as it is a newspaper that has traditionally been quite hostile towards gold.

    Some form of quasi gold standard in China is something we have written about since 2005 and it seems more likely by the year.

    The world turns slowly…and then very fast.”

    The idea of a real gold backed currency has been the Holy Grail of gold bullion buyers for more than 30 years. I have always believed the idea was a pipe dream because as the world became more interrelated its currency fate became more related.

    World governments have a common interest in a “race to the bottom” relative to valuations because after Bretton Woods their value relative to gold was replaced with their value relative to one another. This of course answers the question as to why they keep a wary eye on each other’s fiscal policy.

    And a real gold backed currency could lead to another feared outcome – deflation. I know it sounds funny but without the capacity to expand the money supply - even without end - you could create a financial deflation box.

    I always figured the gold standard conversation was also just fantasy because there was no replacement for the dollar. No other currency had the strength and staying power based on the economic powerhouse which is US manufacturing.

    But postings like the above are becoming more common in this world of high stakes financial poker. This Spy vs Spy contest between world currencies is rigged toward inflation but one which might have dire consequences if the participants misstep.

    Perhaps a gold backed currency is not as farfetched as I once believed - but not because it is a natural result of government currency debasement.

    Is it possible that this new currency will be created because the old and dead Cold War has been replaced with a new and savvy financial opponent who is not satisfied to play second fiddle on the world financial stage?

    An opponent with an obtuse political agenda which now understands that the “military strength” game played with the US is a loser and will sooner or later challenge US dollar hegemony? 

    The walk-in cash trade today was none existent – actually it was not that bad but when we are talking about what’s for lunch at 10:00 AM it is never a good sign. Phones were quiet too – typical of summer trading.

    What does not seem reasonable is that gold is barely able to hold $1300.00 as political tension escalates – with this level of violence it should be testing overhead resistance at $1375.00.    

    The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “3” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 4) (last Wednesday – 5) (last Thursday – 5) (last Friday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water and cokes.

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Gold Higher into an Uncertain Weekend

    Last updated 4 days ago

    Commentary for Friday, July 25, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed higher by $12.50 at $1303.10 going into the weekend. The gold market continues to drift since Thursday’s loss but today’s higher close is encouraging.

    The overnight gold market in Hong Kong and London did develop a slight upward bias which continued into today’s domestic play as gold regains the important $1300.00 level.  

    This looks more like a corrective bounce in prices and perhaps some support from the continuing Gaza and Ukraine conflict – no one really wants to be short with this kind of world tension going into the weekend.

    So short-covering is in order as the market continues to reassess recent losses.

    There is a nice upward channel forming in gold from recent lows in the $1289.00 area but even with today’s positive close the market remains defensive. The bulls are under assault because gold has broken through its 100 day moving average.

    And there may be another factor to soon consider. CNBC this morning claims new metrics indicate that as much as 70% of the S & P is overvalued. I would take this with a grain of salt in that I believe a great deal of recent good news in the stock market is fueled with cheap money. 

    And the Fed is committed to keeping the status quo – low interest rates until the economy is on better footing. At any rate if the stock market begins to look weak gold will benefit and if stocks actually slide gold will benefit a great deal. No big deal as yet but something to watch.

    In the short term it looks like neither the bulls nor the bears dominate - but Thursday’s loss needs to be resolved so the key metric this morning will be gold’s 200 day moving average which is about $1287.00. Stay above that mark (like today) and gold has survived a bear raid – move below that number and we could be in for a test of the $1240.00.

    An important factor this bounce to higher ground is its 50 Day Moving Average ($1293.00) – and there is now significant consolidation between $1293.00 and $1296.00 with an upward bias in today’s close. Today’s close above the 50 Day Moving Average makes the bulls happy.  

    Still gold remains range bound between $1200.00 and $1400.00. For paper traders any volatility within this range is like money in the bank – quickly tradable and also quickly defensible.

    For physical players this is a good place to build core positions especially because gold is now discounted about 30% from all-time highs.

    Silver closed up $0.21 at $20.58 with mostly small to mid-size deals both ways.

    Platinum was up $5.00 at $1478.00 and palladium was up $11.00 at $880.00.

    The Weekly Precious Metal Closes – July 21 through July 24 – 2014

                Gold                Silver              Platinum         Palladium

    Mon    $1313.70         $20.96             $1493.00         $876.00

    Tues    $1306.10         $20.96             $1483.00         $874.00

    Wed    $1304.50         $20.95             $1485.00         $873.00

    Thurs  $1290.60         $20.37             $1472.00         $869.00

    Fri       $1303.10         $20.58             $1478.00         $880.00

    I am a big fan of closing prices instead of trading ranges and this type of information will keep us focused on real changes in the market.

    Technically gold broke down this week losing its 100 day moving average but nicely recovered short-term – so on the week down $10.00 but recovering the important $1300.00 level.  

    Silver held a tight range but lacks the physical follow through to move higher - so finished the week off $0.38.

    Platinum also held a tight range and on the week platinum lost $15.00. 

    The latest mining news might provide longer term clues. “No meaningful production” at Lonmin following the strike and unit costs per PGM ounce year-on-year are expected to increase more than 60 percent, including special costs, the company added.

    Palladium like platinum traded within a very tight range gaining $4.00 on the week. Palladium has fared nicely consider more bullish news out this week regarding its use in the auto industry.  

    Gold’s Next Week – Our Singularly Unscientific Employee Survey

    We are also beginning to track the opinion of individual GoldDealer.com employees as to their opinion on the direction of gold next week.

    They were offered three responses – UP – DOWN – FLAT.

    Ten people offered an opinion – four believe the price of gold will move higher next week – two believe the price of gold will move down next week – and four employees believe the price of gold will remain flat next week. 

    SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) – “Gold retained sharp overnight losses to trade near a five-week low on Friday and was headed for a second straight week of losses, as strong global economic data offset the metal's safe-haven appeal.

    Gold's decline despite simmering tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine does not bode well for prices in the near term, especially at a time when physical demand in Asia is sluggish. Spot gold was little changed at $1,292.10 an ounce by 0243 GMT, after losing nearly 1 percent on Thursday. The metal hit $1,287.46 in the previous session - its lowest since June 19 - before recovering slightly. Gold has lost 1.4 percent of its value this week. Silver, platinum and palladium were also headed for weekly losses.

    "The next key level to watch is the 200-day moving average near $1,286.00" said one trader in Sydney. "If we break that, gold is likely to see more losses."

    Bullion came under pressure after data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly 8-1/2 years last week, suggesting the labor market recovery was gaining traction.

    In China, factory activity expanded at its fastest in 18 months in July, boosting global equities. "Positive economic data put a dampener on the gold market, as risk assets caught a bid and safe-haven buying dried up," ANZ analysts said in a note. Gold had managed to stay above $1,300 an ounce for most of this week as violence continued over the Gaza strip, and tensions between the West and Russia over Ukraine remained high.

    But sentiment has been hit after strong data, with SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, seeing an outflow of 3.6 tonnes on Thursday - the biggest one-day drop in more than a month.

    In the physical markets, buying picked up slightly in the previous session as prices dipped below $1,300, but demand was still much weaker than what was seen last year. Data on Thursday showed that China's net overseas gold purchases through key conduit Hong Kong fell to a 17-month low in June as a weaker yuan curbed demand from the world's biggest bullion consumer and as direct imports via the mainland flourished.”

    Despite the encouraging higher close in gold the walk-in cash trade was average. And national phone action was subdued. That does not mean the public has lost interest because certain sectors (rhodium bars and IRA bullion additions) have remained active.

    And questions continue regarding bullion choices. If you look at the GoldDealer.com Activity Scale it has moved from trading in lower half of the Ten Scale to about mid-point so volume numbers are improving. But the average small to mid-size player remains missing in action and perhaps waiting for better prices.

    The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “4” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 4) (Tuesday – 4) (Wednesday – 5) (Thursday – 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water and cokes. No popcorn machine as yet and I am working on the In and Out Burger plan again.

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your weekend.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Gold Tests Recent Lows on Better Than Expected Unemployment Numbers

    Last updated 5 days ago

    Commentary for Thurs, July 24, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $13.90 today at $1290.60 giving up the important $1300.00 support as US weekly unemployment numbers came back better than expected, with just 284,000 registering, while the forecast was for 310,000. This was the lowest reading since February 2006 and points to continued improvement in the economic recovery. This would reinforce current Fed policy which aims to reduce quantitative easing by year end.

    The US manufacturing sector has once again failed to hold on to expansion rates above 57 (see below), however, this indication of a reduction in expansion does not necessarily imply a negative connotation to the sector.  Demand remains robust and, with export order growth remaining subdued, this implies that demand continues to be driven domestically as economic momentum continues to pick up steam. This is further backed by new business growth which continues to increase strongly, albeit at a slightly reduced rate on last month, where manufacturing production increased to a four month high.

    Going forward, we should continue to see strong demand within the manufacturing sector which should continue to add upside pressure to base metal prices. This sign of sustained strength within manufacturing, which indicates maintained consumer confidence going forward, will likely increase downside pressure on the precious metals, as we would expect this to spur increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could decide to raise rates earlier than is currently expected, as this decision remains data dependent.

    This latest test of support is also technically driven so let’s look at gold’s 50 Day Moving Average ($1293.00) its 100 Day Moving Average ($1303.00) and its 200 Day Moving Average ($1287.00).

    Gold broke below its 100 Day Moving Average ($1303.00) which indicates a continuation of last week’s sell-off but then found significant support around the 50 Day Moving Average ($1293.00).

    This pattern is similar to last week’s test – gold at that time reversed in short covering and settled higher ($1313.00) but failed to gather further upside strength resulting in the usual push/pull market between the bulls and bears.

    So I would consider today’s action another test of the downside putting the bears in charge short term but there has not been enough damage to claim we have resumed the bearish trend -  especially with developing military problems in Ukraine and Gaza.

    But the bulls are under assault and so gold’s 200 Day Moving Average becomes key ($1287.00) – a break below this number would likely set up a retest of recent $1240.00 lows and confirm a long term range bound market.

    Silver followed gold lower down $0.58 at $20.37. In a similar fashion watch silver’s moving averages for short term clues: 50 Day Moving Average ($20.13) – 100 Day Moving Average ($20.09) and 200 Day Moving Average ($20.35). 

    From Standard Bank – Walter de Wet - "China’s June silver imports a mere blip – “We keep a close eye on silver. It has been quite resilient, trading between $18.50 and $22 since late last year. As with many other metals, China’s silver import numbers are crucial to the metal’s price, especially since China turned net importer of silver in 2009. China’s latest silver import numbers show the same picture as for gold and platinum – the country has probably imported too much metal of late. We therefore foresee that the silver price will not manage to sustain rallies beyond $22. China imported 107mt of silver in June, up from 47mt in May and 70mt in March. Although the rise of silver imports in June is encouraging, volumes have been lacklustre.

    Also, YTD total imports are largely skewed by the large import number of 332mt in February (Figure 1); the year otherwise has been very weak. At the current pace of imports, China would have imported 1,630mt in 2014, compared to total imports of 3,578mt in 2010, 2,236mt in 2011 and 1,994mt in 2012. Nevertheless, total imports for 2014 would be marginally higher than the 1,360mt imported in 2013. However, unlike palladium, where our estimates would suggest the bias lies towards China importing more metal in H2:14, silver’s bias lies to China importing less metal in H2:14 than H1:14. This is premised on the fact that since 2011, H2 has been characterized by seasonal weakness, with m/m declines in silver imports starting in September and continuing into December.

    What would change this profile? A sharp decline in the silver price. Indeed, given the seasonal weakness in Chinese imports starting in September, combined with the fact that we see mine supply rising and a speculative market that has flipped from being very short silver to very long silver on COMEX, we maintain that the price bias for silver lies to the downside, as the price is currently near the upper end of the $18.50 - $22.00 range.”

    We believe sooner or later silver will break to the upside – in the meantime take advantage of “sale” prices. The discount to old highs is substantial and no one is smart enough to call the exact bottom so buy weakness. When considering silver bullion stick with the standard fair – low premium bullion products.

    And avoid the telemarketing nonsense – high premium “fake collectable bullion” designed to look like something special.

    And always keep in mind the big advantage silver bullion offers - a low premium and affordable entry price. Everyone - on all economic levels can participate. This is powerful investment leverage which will eventually produce results.

    Platinum was lower by $13.00 at $1472.00 and palladium was down $4.00 at $869.00. In a similar fashion watch platinum’s moving averages for short term clues: 50 Day Moving Average ($1473.00) – 100 Day Moving Average ($1457.00) and 200 Day Moving Average ($1432.00).  

    The walk-in cash trade today was active which is usual on lower prices but there was not a big pop in buyers which might indicate the public is a bit spooked by the sudden drop in prices.

    I would be concerned but not get carried away – it’s summer like trading conditions – thin really – so traders can push markets around for short term gains.

    The phones were just average and we will need a few more days to see if this weakness confirms or is just another blip in a market which continues range bound.  Rather large bullion activity going into IRA Accounts continues.

    The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “5” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 2) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 4) (Monday – 4) (Tuesday – 4) (Wednesday – 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water and cokes. No popcorn machine as yet and I am working on the In and Out burger plan again.

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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