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Gold Moves Higher in Late Trading. Greece? China? Oil?

Commentary for Monday, July 6, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $9.90 on the Comex today at $1172.90. I can’t say the price of gold was too impressed one way or the other with the still unfolding events in Greece. Prices were pretty much flat in Hong Kong and London trading between $1163.00 and $1168.00 but there was a late in the day rally which woke everyone up on the domestic close. The question being was gold firmer because of safe-haven buying in Europe or is there some other reason behind today’s move?

You might want to consider the Dollar Index – some writers claim higher gold in the face of the stronger dollar is important. The Dollar Index to me looks more like choppy here - around 96.00 – strong for sure but a trend which has been in place since last Wednesday. At any rate gold did not move higher because of a weaker dollar.

And today’s higher close in gold is still no big deal but let’s consider the price of crude oil - it might be more reactive than gold in this situation. The 5 day chart relative to WTI Crude was steady around $60.00 a barrel from last Monday through last Wednesday and then it began to weaken moving to $52.58 by today and stocks also moved lower - perhaps the realization that a crashing Greece will not be good for anyone?

And then there is the Chinese re-liquidation program for lack of a better term. The idea that China could be in economic trouble is a much bigger threat to gold than Greece.

This from Reuters - “Chinese stocks rose on Monday, as an unprecedented series of support measures unleashed by Beijing brought some relief to a market whose headlong slide over the past three weeks had raised fears about the stability of the world's second-biggest economy.

In an extraordinary weekend of policy moves, brokerages and fund managers vowed to buy massive amounts of stocks, helped by China's state-backed margin finance company, which in turn would be aided by a direct line of liquidity from the central bank.

The CSI300 index .CSI300 of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed up 2.9 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC gained 2.4 percent.

That represented a significant pullback, however, from an initial burst of euphoria that pushed both indexes up around 8 percent when trading began, raising questions about whether the rebound can be sustained.

Oliver Barron, China policy research analyst at NSBO, said it wasn't just faith in the markets at stake after investors had ignored official measures to prop up equities as indexes slid around 12 percent last week.

"After the market continued to fall despite myriad support measures, the government reached peak panic mode and must have worried that investors would not only lose confidence in the markets, but in the government itself," he said.

The rapid decline of China's previously booming stock market, which by the end of last week had fallen around 30 percent from a mid-June peak, had become a major headache for President Xi Jinping and China's top leaders, who were already struggling to avert a sharper economic slowdown.”

Take your pick – but keep an eye on Gold’s Moving Averages for real insight. Compare today’s close ($1172.90) to Gold’s 50 DMA ($1189.00) – 100 DMA ($1191.00) and 200 DMA ($1203.00). We are still below all three averages meaning our momentum is still under pressure and anything else in the headlines – (for me at least) is interesting but not compelling. Keep in mind this may change tomorrow morning but as of now it all looks like sideline noise. Gold is still range-bound waiting for that intrerest rate bump in the night.

Silver closed up $0.18 at $15.72 – silver bullion buyers remain steady today carrying away another truck load of various silver bullion products.

Platinum closed down $18.00 at $1066.00 and palladium was off $19.00 at $675.00. Platinum is now trading at $106.00 discount to gold.

This from Reuters (A. Ananthalaksmi) – “Gold's safe-haven gains from Greece fizzle on robust dollar - SINGAPORE, July 6 Gold gave up early gains on Monday as a robust dollar outweighed safe-haven demand after

Greeks rejected terms of a bailout package in a referendum.

The failure to sustain the rally shows gold's struggle amidst prospects of higher U.S. interest rates despite the uncertainty over Athens' financial situation and its future in the euro zone, a situation that would typically garner safety bids for bullion.

Spot gold was flat at $1,167.57 an ounce by 0401 GMT, after earlier jumping by as much as 0.6 percent.

U.S. gold climbed nearly 1 percent in its biggest daily gain in about two weeks to $1,174.40 before paring some gains to trade up 0.3 percent.

Silver, platinum and palladium all declined.

"With Greece voting against austerity, the expectation is for gold prices to climb but ... momentum (is) fizzling out," said Howie Lee, an analyst at Phillip Futures.

"Its safe-haven property does not appear to be carrying much weight," Lee said.

In a referendum on Sunday, Greeks overwhelmingly rejected conditions of a rescue package from creditors. Official figures showed 61 percent of Greeks had rejected a deal that would have imposed more austerity measures on an already ravaged economy.

The vote leaves Greece in uncharted waters: risking a banking collapse that could force it out of the euro. Without more emergency funding from the European Central Bank, Greece's banks could run out of cash within days.

Gold, typically seen as an alternative investment during times of financial and economic uncertainties, rallied early in Asian hours as the euro slumped and U.S. equity futures fell on risk-averse sentiment in the market.

But the precious metal failed to hold the gains, even as other safe havens such as the yen rallied and the dollar climbed to its highest in a month.

A higher dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while also lowering its appeal as a hedge.

The greenback has also been supported recently by expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates from record lows this year. That has weighed on gold, a non-interest-paying asset.

Gold could get a boost if the Fed decides to postpone a rate hike or if there is a contagion risk in Europe because of the Greek crisis, a trader said.”

The walk in cash trade was active today – silver bullion rules – Monster Boxes, 90% Silver Bags and all the usual suspects. The phones were also busy – the usual story – not much in the way of selling and there has been a broad range of interest – from small buyers to whales.

There was actually a small line at the back door – something we have not seen in months. We apologize for the wait and by the way your animals are welcome in the store – no need to wait in the car especially in the summer months. We also provide fresh water for them.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday - 6) (last Wednesday - 7) (last Thursday – 7) (closed last Friday). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Weaker but Losses are pared by the Jobs Report

Commentary for Thursday, July 2, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $6.00 today on the Comex at $1163.00. So we remain weaker into the long weekend but the losses were pared by the June Jobs Report – it did not meet expectations, but did not miss by much. This helped weaken the dollar and kept gold from moving even lower.

There is still a lot of attention focused on the Greek default which has turned into a political football as well – support Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras or accept the IMF plan? Who knows where this is going but one thing is certain – the public is disappointed that the default did not push the precious metals higher in price.

This continues to create the sense of a soft precious metals market but surprisingly the price of gold and silver is actually pretty firm considering the negative press – gold down $20.00 since the beginning of 2015 and silver off only $0.02 during the same time period. The PGM metals have not fared as well – platinum down $120.00, palladium down $104.00 and rhodium down $445.00 (this is the lowest level since 2004).

Don’t expect much action today most traders have already left for the long 4 th of July weekend. The 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day. Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd. Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

Silver closed down $0.01 at $15.54 and the physical trade in silver bullion today was subdued.

This from Joe O’Donnell (Coin World) - U.S. Mint's June American Eagle silver bullion coin sales more than double May's – “Sales through the first half of 2015 are down compared to the first half of 2014 - Though it was a strong June for U.S. Mint American Eagle silver bullion sales, total sales over the first six months of 2015 are down from 2014. Sales of the U.S. Mint's American Eagle silver bullion coins totaled 4,840,000 ounces in June 2015, up from 2,023,500 ounces in May, and up compared to the 2,692,000 ounces sold in June 2014, according to Mint figures posted online July 1. Even after the strong June sales, total Mint silver bullion sales through the first six months of 2015 are down over the same period last year. To date, 21,786,000 ounces of silver bullion coins have been sold in 2015. During the first six months of 2014, 24,128,500 ounces were sold.”

The above post by Coin World is amazing but will probably go unnoticed. I figured something was happening with $1000 face 90% bags because premiums were moving higher – now look at the American Silver Eagle 1 oz sales for June. I appreciate silver prices are cheaper but there may be something else going on here – we are supposed to be in the typical summer doldrums for the coins business – which is generally true but not for silver bullion products. And look at the total sales volume of Silver Eagles – 21,786,000 coins. As I have pointed out we buy virtually nothing back relative to what we sell even when prices move lower. This small public selling trend has been in place for years so these Monster Boxes are going into very strong hands.

Platinum traded down $3.00 at $1084.00 and palladium was off $7.00 at $694.00.

The jobs report sort of disappointed the trading floor and so the dollar was weakened today which supported gold somewhat but remember the Dollar Index is still trading above 96.00.

This from Sho Chandra (Bloomberg) - Labor Market Runs in Place; More Jobs, Participation Lowest Since 1977 - The U.S. labor market took one step forward and one back in June as job creation advanced while wages stagnated and the size of the labor force receded.

The addition of 223,000 jobs followed a 254,000 increase in the prior month that was less than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Thursday in Washington. The jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3 percent as people left the workforce.

The figures indicate the economy is improving slowly following a first-quarter slump rather than surging ahead as consumer spending strengthens. That will probably keep Federal Reserve policy makers on course to raise interest rates later this year with subsequent increases coming only gradually.

“The labor market is good, there’s just not any wage pressure,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who correctly projected the drop in unemployment. “The disappointment is on wages and on the participation rate.”

Earnings at private employers held at $24.95 an hour in June on average and rose 2 percent over the past 12 months, matching the mean since the current expansion began six years ago. Wages had increased 2.3 percent in the year ended in May.

Seasonal adjustments, or a calendar bias, probably explained some of the downward pressure on the wage figures in June after artificially boosting them in May, according to economist Ted Wieseman of Morgan Stanley and Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC.”

This is our usual Thursday Chicago Mercantile Exchange report covering the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the “August” Gold contract: Thursday 6/25 (286,190) - Friday 6/26 (286,230) - Monday 6/29 (286,114) - Tuesday 6/30 (283,573) - Wednesday 7/01 (285,041). These numbers remain in the higher end of the range.

Our Patented Employee Survey– Gold's Direction Next Week?

Of course it's not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 8 believe gold will be higher next week – 3 think gold will be lower and zero believe it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey– Gold's Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 55 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 35 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 10 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – June 29 – July 2 (July 3 rd US markets are closed)

For now gold looks like it’s married to the dollar. This makes sense given the problems in Europe, especially Greece, so let’s once again look at the Dollar Index. In the short-term this relationship is apparent so first consider the Dollar Index 5 Day Chart – since Monday we have moved from just above 94.50 to almost 96.50 – this is big and the reason gold has been weak.

Again ignore the so-called safe-haven buying which is suspect regardless of what dealers claim and Greece which is bankrupt and watch the Dollar Index.

Open up the index graph to a 3 month period and the picture is actually more encouraging for gold in the longer term. The trend line favors a weaker dollar market as we have moved off a high of 100.00 in April. Some might make a case that technically the Dollar Index may have broken to the upside in its most recent strength – moving above those descending tops but I think this is premature. Generally the Dollar Index looks like it wants to move lower and this will support higher gold prices but there is much more to this picture.

Refocus on the price of gold and consider the real physical market – it’s not Greece and it’s not safe-haven buying – all that is press related. The real clue here can be seen in a gold price chart going back to November of 2014. We have touched the $1140.00 mark in gold in November and bounced higher, revisited in March and bounced higher and are now repeating this move back to $1140.00 for a third time with the close today ($1163.00). In each of these three moves physical demand has increased dramatically across our counter as we approached $1140.00 and subsided just as quickly as the price of gold rebounded above $1200.00.

So what does all this mean? There are outside forces which influence gold’s direction and get all the press – but sometimes lead readers in the wrong direction. The real secret here might be the physical demand generated simply because this market is considered cheap by some as it approaches $1140.00.

And the conclusion is that as we approach this mark for the third time since last November the gold market is once again oversold.

If you are a gold pessimist or bear (there are plenty of both around these days) I don't blame you. There is plenty of commentary claiming this $1140.00 mark will eventually give way pushed lower by higher interest rates.

Fair enough but I could make an alternative case using returning inflation – financial Black Swans – nuclear proliferation as some overlook a dangerous Iran - or even a much weaker Dollar Index, which by historical standards should be more like 80.00.

Granted it’s difficult to get excited about the price of gold in a sideways to lower market. But regardless of price I like gold bullion and don't completely trust government function. So from a cost averaging standpoint it makes sense to add to core holdings as we approach $1140.00 – this is a practical consideration for those who like gold bullion and is supported by our actual sales across the counter.

Think about this – our sales to the ethnic trade (gold bullion bars) have recently increased dramatically. In fact this particular group within our larger bullion trade has purchased nearly half of last year’s total last month alone. So a quiet sector of the cash bullion market is buying furiously as general public interest wanes.

The walk in cash trade remains steady to busy, at times there was a short line at the back door. Phones were busy early in the day but slowed down considerably in the afternoon.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 6) (Monday – 6) (Tuesday - 6) (Wednesday - 7). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your long weekend in celebration of America’s birthday!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Getting Younger People Interested in Coin Collecting

Coin collecting can be a fulfilling pastime for individuals of all ages, but it can be especially worthwhile for young people. The younger you are when you first start collecting going coins, the more time you will have to grow your collection. Watch this video for tips on getting younger people interested in coin collecting.

Young people have active imaginations and blossoming ambitions, but it is often up to others to steer them in the right direction. Established coin collectors can hold seminars in schools or invite young people to coin collecting conventions in order to expose them to the world of collecting at a young age.

California Numismatic Investments is one of the largest and most trusted precious metals dealers in the country. We offer certified rare coins, silver bullion, and platinum bullion bars. Feel free to give us a call at (800) 225-7531 or visit our website to learn more about our services.

Gold Snoozes - Failing to Wake Up Over Greek Default

Commentary for Wednesday, July 1, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $2.50 at $1169.00, so hardly much of a reaction to the Greek debt default – in fact no reaction at all – probably because many feel that there will be some sort of last minute deal regardless of all the bad press. Let’s hope so – a real default means many parties will get a severe financial haircut – something Greece, or Europe in general really, does not need.

I guess you could make the case that the default has supported the price of gold – if it were not for this financial fiasco we could be trading much lower. But this is a negative case to make and not something the physical gold world wants to hear.

This from CNN Money – “In a dramatic but widely expected step, Greece formally defaulted on a $1.7 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund early Wednesday in Athens.

Greece became the first developed country to default to the IMF, an organization of 188 nations that tries to keep the world economy stable.

Greece will now be cut off from access to IMF resources until the payment is made.

The move came hours after the country made a desperate attempt Tuesday to halt its plunge into economic chaos by requesting a new European bailout.

Greece asked for a two-year bailout from Europe, its third in six years. The bankrupt country is reported to be asking for 29 billion euros ($32 billion).

Finance ministers discussed the request by phone and agreed to hold another call Wednesday, when Greece is expected to provide more details.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said any new rescue may require tougher conditions than those Greece has already rejected because of the rapid deterioration in the country's finances.

"So this is not an easy road to go down," he told CNN's Richard Quest.

Greece is fast running out of money. It rejected the conditions Europe and the IMF set for releasing the remaining billions from its existing bailout at the weekend. That bailout expired Tuesday.

"The last chance to get a solid extension of the old program has gone by," Dijsselbloem said. "We are now in a difficult situation." Greece is now on its own financially, and can't pay all its bills.”

Silver closed unchanged at $15.55 – silver bullion remains hot.

Platinum closed up $9.00 at $1097.00 and palladium was up $29.00 at $701.00. This strength in both platinum and palladium probably the result of giant car numbers this morning. The American favorite is still the SUV and the public is willing to buy – another sign that things for the consumer continue to improve.

Today’s weakness in gold is again dollar related. The Dollar Index closed yesterday at 95.52 and the range today has been from 95.47 through 96.25 – we are looking at 96.24 as of this writing. Almost a full point higher than the previous close and trading on the day’s high meaning everyone is still on board – perhaps for even higher numbers.

The dollar strength is the result of continued better economic data.

This from MarketWatch (Joseph Adinolfi) - Dollar strengthens on upbeat U.S. economic reports - The dollar started the month off strong on Wednesday, as a spate of strong U.S. economic data suggested growth remained robust in June, providing more justification for Federal Reserve policy makers to raise interest rates this year.

ADP’s June estimate for private-sector hiring beat estimates by nearly 20,000 jobs, quickly sending the dollar through 123 yen, and the euro below $1.11. The dollar had found resistance at both of those levels earlier in the session.

The ADP number has underestimated the Labor Department’s reading on jobs growth during five of the past seven months. Paul Dales, a senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said there’s a chance the June nonfarm payrolls number could surprise to the upside - maybe even as high as 290,000.

Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast that 225,000 new jobs were created in June.

The headline ISM manufacturing index came in at 53.5%, beating expectations by about 0.3%. The dollar continued to strengthen after the report.

Federal Reserve policy makers said they would be cautious about raising interest rates at their June meeting, reiterating that the timing of the first interest-rate hike remains “data dependent.” Wednesday’s data indicated the economy is on track to meet their criteria.”

This from Kira Brecht (Kitco) - Are More Chinese Gold Buyers Poised To Buy On Dips? Fact: China is the world's largest producer of gold. Fact: Since 2013, China has been the world's largest consumer of gold, according to a HSBC Commodities Global research report

“The Chinese stock market continues to plunge. The Shanghai Composite index has tumbled 19% since its mid-June high, in a decline worth $1.25 trillion in market capitalization. For emerging market consumers in China and India with limited access to alternative vehicles to preserve and grow wealth, gold investments remain a favorite choice.

Gold imports in China are already on the rise, with a significant jump in May. According to trade data out of Hong Kong, about 64.2 tonnes of gold was imported to the mainland, an increase of 36% compared to last month and up 35% compared to May 2014.

However, Chinese gold buyers have proven to be price sensitive. Why buy high, when you can buy at lower levels?

Pointing to consumers in India and China, "A plunge in [gold] prices can quickly encourage fresh physical gold demand as consumers with limited incomes secure gold at lower prices. This pattern will help support prices on downswings," wrote HSBC analysts in a commodities global research report. If gold prices were to come under additional pressure toward the USD$1,120 ounce zone, HSBC analysts expect that to trigger fresh buying demand. "In our view, any further drop to USD$1,120/oz or lower would likely stimulate retail demand and act as a brake on further declines," HSBC analysts wrote.

Taking a look at the Shanghai Composite Index below (source Bigcharts.com), the Chinese stock market is closing in on a test of the important swing low support around the May 7 low at 4112. Will that swing low act as support? Technically, a breakdown below that low would open the door to continuing declines. There is little nearby chart support and the index would become vulnerable to a test of 4000.

For Chinese investors, continuing declines in the Shanghai Composite index could encourage even more safe haven buying into gold. If the yellow metal were to come under additional pressure in the weeks ahead back toward the March 2015 lows around $1,143 or the November 2014 lows near $1,135, emerging market physical buying interest could sweep in at the lower price levels as has occurred in recent years.”

All Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 6-24-15 was 51,185,212. That number this week (7-01-15) is 51,259,065 ounces so over the last week we gained 73,853 ounces of gold.

The all-time record high for all gold ETF's was 85,112,855 ounces in 2013. The record high for Gold ETF's in 2015 is 53,901,867 and the record low for 2015 is 51,019,356.

All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 6-24-15 was 620,864,824. That number this week (7-01-15) is 619,373,374 ounces so over the last week we dropped 1,491,450 ounces of silver.

All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 6-24-15 was 2,533,600 ounces. That number this week (7-01-15) is 2,596,617 ounces so over the last week we gained 63,017 ounces of platinum.

All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 6-24-15 was 2,970,677 ounces. That number this week (7-01-15) is 2,972,261 ounces so over the last week we gained 1,584 ounces of palladium.

More Ouzo Please – As Greece defaults - will this debt repudiation spread to other countries in Europe? This question is at the core of why gold has not responded to the threat. First of all Greece has long been in trouble and the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund has long been ready to help with loans, even though the cumulative Greek debt number continued to climb.

How much money does Greece owe? A lot according to the Telegraph – “Greece owes money to a number of countries and organizations following two bailouts - one in 2010 and another in 2012. The bailout funds totaled €220bn, most of which hasn't been paid back. Greece owes around €56bn to Germany, €42bn to France, €37bn to Italy, and €25bn to Spain. The Greek government also owes private investors in the country around €39bn, and another €120bn to institutions including Greek banks. Greece's debt mountain is 180pc of its GDP.”

That’s a lot of loot as they say – and the discouraging part is that even with some hopeful signs of world recovery the funds borrowed in 2010 and 2012 are still owed. This is 2015 – if you were applying for a loan with Bank of America with this type of payback schedule they would show you the door. But Greece is a nation not a person so let’s be a bit more optimistic.

I read a piece which claimed that small gold was selling like hotcakes in Europe and even went so far as to claim that they were running out due to the Greek financial scare.

This has to be a construct designed by some dealers to sell the sizzle to the public. I have rarely seen any gold dealer, this side of the pond or in Europe that could not restock completely on a few phone calls.

And I have rarely seen large dealers stop selling bullion – it happens but only for a short period of time and only when market volatility keeps them from making orderly markets. They may run out but restocking in the modern gold or silver world is easy if you have the money ready to wire - so these stories of a run on European small gold are bunk.

Besides the premium on small gold coins is fairly constant – given the turmoil in Europe I would expect premiums on small coins to increase significantly – they have not.

There is some credibility in the notion that this Greece problem could spread and if this happens the collective gasp might create larger gold bullion buying. But the chances of this happening are thin – want some odds, maybe 30 to 1 or even higher.

But let’s say that a Greek failure creates bigger problems – even then the chance of gold moving front and center does not make sense.

Why? Because the predominant gold sentiment these past few years has been negative and I think gold traders are convinced the path of least resistance is still down.

I don’t happen to agree for two reasons. First, there is just too much money floating around to cap the inflation genie. And second this market looks and feels like it is either at or near a long term bottom.

Still the general sentiment in gold is bearish and gold price charts look tired. In the past 60 days gold has tested the $1170.00 on three different occasions and held. This is promising but if Greece sinks those seeking cover will run to the dollar – it just makes sense in the short term.

But real gold holders remain concerned even if the paper trade likes the short end of the trade. Look at total gold holdings in the Exchange Traded Funds since the beginning of 2015.

As of today we are higher by 165,856 ounces meaning that since the beginning of 2015 while the paper trade was essentially negative because of a poor technical picture the physical trade was not so convinced. Granted ETF holdings are at the lower end of their range, participants are not jumping ship and are giving gold bullion the benefit of the doubt.

The walk in cash trade remains solid – a good mix of buying and selling and the phones are just average today.

The 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Wednesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 6) (Monday – 6) (Tuesday - 6). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Moves Lower as the Greek Drama Continues

Commentary for Tuesday, June 30, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $7.00 at $1171.50 on the Comex today. Hard to believe gold is moving lower as the Greek drama continues. To add insult to injury they missed today’s deadline payment of 1.6 billion euros to creditors as the hopeful claimed that the default would not be official until midnight.

There are some who claim gold sales have been strong in Europe over this mess but I find this hard to believe – the roof is falling in relative to debt default and gold remains weak.

Of course the technical picture for gold has been negative and the dollar has been strong so I guess I should be thankful for small blessings – we could be doing worse.

There is also a dynamic which is particular to the gold market and should not be forgotten. If default actually happens meaning there is real debt repudiation it might push either banks or bond holders into selling gold simply to raise cash.

Finally consider that gold may yet surprise – if during this entire ruckus we fail to break-down the $1140.00 level it would be very bullish and more would begin to believe gold has bottomed in the low $1100.00 range.

Silver closed down $0.11 at $15.55. Our silver bullion sales remain strong and even with a few large 100 oz bar sellers today our book remained relatively flat – this means that after all is said and done Kenny did not sell any excess inventory into the marketplace – we needed all that we purchased and more because our physical silver bullion sales remain strong.

Also of some note are 90% silver bag premiums – under usual conditions (meaning there is no big push on these bags) the premium over spot is $1.50. When the action heats up - the selling premium moves higher but so does the buying premium. We are selling $1000 face 90% bags today at $2.40 over spot delivered – granted a higher premium but our bid price is also higher. This is exactly how a real marketplace works to provide product to the public.

Some dealers are claiming $1.50 premium over spot but are sold out of product. Like my Mom used to say “My pork chops are really cheap when there is nothing in the case”. Be careful of bogus low selling premiums when the claiming dealer cannot deliver – he either does not understand the market (doubtful) or he is taking a shot with your money hoping premiums will decrease (always a ticket to disaster in the bullion business).

Platinum closed down $3.00 at $1078.00 and palladium was up $6.00 at $672.00. The price of rhodium moved lower today – down $50.00 at $850.00. The 1 oz Baird Rhodium bar is $980.00 delivered and there is some action considering recent discounts – rhodium is trading at about half of the levels seen earlier in this year – so like platinum it’s bargain time for longer term investors.

Even with all the huff and puff it’s hard for me to get too excited over gold’s prospects relative to the Greek default. I appreciate the possible contagion problem but I think this is overstated unless countries like Spain and Portugal join this club. If this ugly debt situation was presented during the original 2008 financial collapse we could have expected giant fireworks but this late in the financial recovery game it seems tired. Still there are some who believe a Greek exit will expose currency and debt corruption – this more serious view is not mine but is presented below for consideration.

This from Sharps Pixley / Seeking Alfa - Irrational Greek Government May Encourage Europeans to Purchase Gold - The European situation changed dramatically over the weekend and this had caused me to change my position on gold. On June 15, I wrote an article titled "Should We Buy Gold On Grexit Concern?" as a reply to a reader's indecision on whether I said buy gold on Grexit because gold is negatively correlated with the expected USD strength but it is also a hedge against financial instability. My assumption back then was that the EU would be able to contain the situation with Greece and hence the financial instability function would be superseded by the rising value of the USD.

After all, the majority of Greeks want to stay within the EU and this was expected to constrain the Syriza government. The current Greek government is expected to make some loud demands for concessions while the EU is expected to push against it for further reforms before dispensing the bailout money to keep Greece in the family. There will be a lot of heat and news stories back home so that both sides can show that they have pressed for the best possible deal. In short, business as usual was expected as it had been for the past 5 months with negotiations being held close to the deadline.

Moot Referendum - However Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras pulled an unexpected move that derailed the entire negotiation process. Tsipras called for a referendum for the Greek people to decide if they would accept the EU's bailout proposal or not. Before we get into the details and reactions to this referendum, consider the simple issue of time. The deadline for the Greek bailout would be on June 30 and yet the Tsipras referendum is on July 5. In other words, the referendum is moot for the simple reason that there will be no bailout proposal to consider simply because Greece had already defaulted!

This referendum had effectively dashed hopes that a last minute agreement can be reached in time by the June 30 deadline. Perhaps the Greek gamble is that the EU would accommodate them by extending the deadline for another 5 days. However this is merely wishful thinking as the sudden nature of the referendum insulted the powerful politicians who had to put their careers on the line in order to carry out the negotiations in the first place against the growing impatience from their people back home.

This is how the Financial Times reported the reaction from 2 key negotiators from the ground. The Chairman of the committee of eurozone Finance Ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, was quoted as saying:

"That is a sad decision for Greece. It has closed the door on further talks while the door was still open, in my mind."

The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, took the hardline on this topic and was quoted to have effectively closed negotiations with Greece over the matter with the following quote:

"The negotiations are clearly ended, if I understand Mr. Tsipras correctly, we have no grounds for further discussions."

There are other angry comments on the group as the various European finance ministers realized that they had wasted a lot of effort on bailout negotiations. There is no need to quote them as the Wolfgang and Dijsselbloem comments had made it clear that this is the end of negotiations and Grexit is only a matter of time.

Capital Controls - As of June 28, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to supply $89 billion euros of Emergency Lending Assistance (NYSE:ELA) to the Greek Central Bank according to this Marketwatch report. However in light of the referendum, the ECB would likely cut off its ELA funding by June 30.

While the ECB is committed to keep Greek banks open temporarily, there had been a massive run on the banks as seen in the long lines that formed once the referendum announcement were made. By the end of the week, Tsipras had to announce capital controls which limited ATM withdrawals to $60 euros a day. In addition, Greek banks are now closed for an indefinite period of time. This is on top of the $5 billion euros that left Greece in April 2015 alone.

This capital control announcement had triggered a decision by Greek neighbor, Macedonia to order its bank to pull out its money from Greek's bank. This is a sign that Greece's weaker neighbors are currently actively taking steps to insulate themselves from the potential fallout effects from Grexit. It should be noted that 20% of Greek banks asset are based in Macedonia.

Conclusion - In other words, the situation on the ground is rapidly spiraling out of control and a Grexit is virtually guaranteed. In this situation, it is entirely likely that financial instability would engulf Europe even if the Troika absorbed the majority of Greek's bad debt. The irrational nature of the Syriza government would multiply the likelihood of a disorderly Grexit as Syriza might impose more than just capital controls.

Surprise is the trademark of the Syriza government and this has been pushed to the next level. Perhaps the root of the problem is that the twin wishes of the Greek people, which is to stay in Europe and to avoid the pain of austerity, are mutually exclusive to each other. They must either stay in the eurozone and take the pain of austerity or they can leave the euro and be free of the austerity demands from their creditors through default. They cannot have both and the fact that they want to have their cake and eat it, too, is one of the primary reasons for chaos.

They are threatening to unravel the whole European project and it would encourage other debtor nations such as Spain and Italy to leave the eurozone. For this reason, there is likely to be legitimate demand for physical gold all over Europe. This can be a potential short term demand for gold as its price is likely to get more expensive despite the rising USD. However the fact that events had been pushed to their climax would mean that we would likely to have a conclusion to the Grexit issue soon.

Over the longer run, a successful resolution would be conducive to the economic development of Europe. Over the medium term, that would reduce the demand for gold on the assumption that the Grexit effect can be contained with Greece itself and not spread to the rest of Europe.

The walk in cash trade was busy but not hectic today – surprisingly the phones were busy all day and the public continues to buy silver bullion in its various forms.

The 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 6” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 6) (Monday – 6). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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