California Numismatic Investments is one of America's largest dealers in precious metals with 33 yrs experience. We provide great national pricing & free insured shipping with an A+ from the BBB

Gold Remains Firm Perhaps Reacting to Higher Oil

Commentary for Monday, Aug 31, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $0.20 on the Comex today at $1131.60 recovering from mild early lows in near steady trading.

The price of gold over the last week is interesting relative to the dollar. Since last Tuesday gold has ranged from $1122.00 through $1159.00, today’s close being ($1131.60) which presents a range of around $37.00. During the same time the Dollar Index has moved from just over 93.00 to 96.01 – so we are almost 3 points higher and yet gold has not paid much attention.

During the same time period crude oil has bounced considerably higher moving from less than $40.00 a barrel to something over $47.00 today – so the rebound in oil has been substantial and may have been the reason the price of gold has remained relatively steady.

On the shorter term gold’s price action is better understood if you remember that gold has moved higher ($1085.00) initially because of a short-covering rally and China paper scare.

Now consider what might happen to this range if the Federal Reserve soon raises interest rates.

This from Reuters - US Fed says rate hike in September hinges on market volatility - The US Federal Reserve on Friday left the door open to a September interest rate hike even while several central bank officials acknowledged that turmoil in financial markets, if prolonged, could delay monetary policy tightening.

Some top policymakers, including Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, said the recent volatility in global markets could quickly ease and possibly pave the way for the first US rate hike in nearly a decade.

With a key policy meeting set for September 16-17, at least five Fed officials spoke publicly in what amounted to a jockeying for position on whether increasing the central bank’s benchmark overnight lending rate was too risky amid an economic slowdown in China, a rising US dollar and falling commodity prices.

"It’s early to tell," Fischer told CNBC on the sidelines of the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. "We’re still watching how it unfolds."

He along with other Fed officials acknowledged that the global equities sell-off that began last week would influence the timing of a rate hike, which until only a couple of weeks ago seemed increasingly likely to occur in September.

Concerns about China’s economy have whipsawed markets, including on Wall Street, even while US economic data has been robust. US stock indexes ended largely unchanged, capping a week that included both the market’s worst day in four years and biggest two-day gain since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

"I think they could settle fairly quickly," said Fischer, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Reuters he still favoured hiking rates next month, though he added his colleagues would be hesitant to do so if global markets continued to be volatile in mid-September.

The Fed’s policy committee "does not like to move right in the middle of a global financial storm," Bullard, a Fed hawk, said in an interview. "So one of the advantages we have is that this storm is occurring now and, at least as of now, we think it will be settled down" by the September meeting.

The comments suggest the next two-and-a-half weeks will be critical for the Fed as well as for global markets. A US rate hike is expected to hit emerging market equities and currencies particularly hard, adding to the sell-offs already seen.

The American economy, however, continues to shine despite longer-term concerns about low inflation.

The US government reported this week that the economy grew at a 3.7 per cent annualized pace in the second quarter, sharply higher than its previous estimate, and that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose again in July.

Investors and economists have been betting the Fed would delay a policy tightening to December or later, prolonging the monetary stimulus that has kept rates at rock-bottom levels for more than six years and pumped trillions of dollars into the global banking system.

But after Fischer spoke, traders added to bets that a rate hike would come this year, with overnight indexed swap rates implying a 35 per cent chance the Fed would move in September and a 77 per cent chance of a December move.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart told Bloomberg TV it was reasonable to see the odds of a September rate hike as roughly even.

One idea appearing to gain ground on Friday hinged on the Fed raising rates once or twice and then holding off until inflation started to rise to its 2 per cent target - a strong dollar and lower oil prices have kept a lid on prices despite an unemployment rate that is close to normal at 5.3 per cent.

Bullard told Reuters the Fed could hike rates once then "hang out" at that level if inflation remains too low.

Market volatility, however, has made Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart less resolute to raise rates next month. A centrist who regularly votes with the majority, Lockhart said it was "sensible" to not change policy in the midst of a storm, Market News reported on Friday.

Loretta Mester, head of the Cleveland Fed and another so-called hawk who, like Bullard, sometimes runs against the grain at the central bank, said the US economy still could handle a modest rate hike, though she did not commit to backing a move at the September meeting.

"I want to take the time I have between now and the September meeting to evaluate all the economic information that’s come in, including recent volatility in markets and the reasons behind that," she was quoted as saying by the Wall Street Journal.

Silver closed down $0.06 at $14.57. Silver looks firm as it has rebounded from recent lows of $13.98. Investors are buying silver bullion as fast as we can stock product. A good example of consistently high premiums are the $1000 face 90% silver bags – there is still not much available despite a $5.00 premium per ounce.

We have 1 oz Perth Mint Spiders in stock at $2.60 over spot (while they last) and these are one of the least expensive ways to purchase government produced bullion coins.

Platinum closed down $11.00 at $1010.00 and palladium closed up $11.00 at $600.00. The Perth Mint has decent production rates of the popular Platypus 1 oz bullion coin so gold bullion trades and outright purchase of platinum bullion is picking up. Platinum is now trading for $121.00 less than gold.

This from Sarah Benali (Kitco) - Overvalued Equities Causing Volatility? I Think Not – Capital Economics - Are equities too overvalued, and is that causing weakness in the overall financial system? According to analysts at Capital Economics, the answer is no. “To some, the recent sell-off in global financial markets was merely the beginning of what will soon become a much bigger downturn, because the valuations of many assets remain excessively high,” they say in a research note Friday. “However, our view is that valuations are generally notvery stretched, even that of China’s stock market following its tumble.” The analysts add that in some cases, valuations of assets are actually "unusually low," and although this may not preclude further falls in prices, it may “cushion the downside.” Looking closer at China’s recent equity selloff, the firm’s chief markets economist, John Higgins, says that valuations in Chinese stock indices, although high, have been a lot more expensive in the past. “So it was not dramatically overvalued from a historical standpoint before its latest plunge. And the subsequent slide in the index has brought its valuation down to a ‘normal’ level,” he explains. The Shanghai Composite Index was last up 4.82%, after hitting a low of 2927.288 earlier in the week. The index has lost roughly 11% since the start of the month. “Overall, we find scant evidence to support the view that the valuations of many assets are excessively high,” Higgins says. “While this does not rule out further declines in prices, it suggests such declines are not needed.”

The walk in cash trade was busy all day and so were the phones - virtually no big sellers of any bullion product.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is an “ 8” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 8) (last Wednesday – 9) (last Thursday – 8) (last Friday – 9). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Closes Higher on Safe-Haven Buying into the Weekend

Commentary for Friday, Aug 28, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $9.40 on the Comex today at $1131.80 which is above the low close of the week ($1122.00). It continues to wobble however the upward revision in Q2 US Gross Domestic Product this week has convinced many that the world is not quite falling apart.

The overnight market in both Hong Kong and London was tightly traded and the domestic US market produced a decidedly upward trend in prices.

Considering US stocks remain choppy this week a firmer gold market into the weekend looks like some residual safe-haven buying perhaps leftover from the China scare on Monday and mild short-covering. It is also positive that gold is now moving back towards its 50 Day Moving Average ($1132.00) but will have to do some work to approach the 100 DMA ($1163.00) and 200 DMA ($1187.00) – this overhead region of resistance feels heavy.

Today’s positive gold close is in spite of a modestly strong dollar – the Dollar Index has traded between 95.38 and 95.96 – it’s currently at 95.95 with a positive bias so gold is bucking the trend.

I have posted the AP numbers on the most recent consumer spending – it’s not roaring but as with previous guidelines we continue to improve. But we too may be bucking the economic trend – Japan today is still mired in economic problems which suggest deflation even though the BOJ is following our example of quantitative easing.

And China is doing everything possible to reverse the now growing idea that all is not right with their model. The good thing about China is that they have a combination which is hard to beat – a giant manufacturing machine and a giant bank account. So they can do much to balance economic problems and quell any real economic world fear. Make no mistake the People’s Bank of China is not shy about currency plays, supporting the yuan and selling dollars.

Still there is tension in the world markets and this alone probably created the now current thinking that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until December. This of course supports the current price range in gold.

Still most traders remain negative in their thinking – they can’t get past that rate increase. This view is exactly opposite the old notion that there is nothing like gold bullion if you are really worried about the world condition.

So trader doubt and physical safe haven demand explains gold’s recent back and forth model. In the past 30 days gold has moved from around $1090.00 to around $1160.00 in a generally upward trend which reversed itself in late August and now seems happy around $1120.00.

That amounts to a $70.00 spread which is not much considering very large cross-currents like the Fed rate hike, the huge one day drop in the DOW, world economic tension, lower oil and base metals. The upward pressure lately and recent reversal in the short term technical picture is telling you something is not right in River City but it’s not enough wrong to cause panic.

I listened to what Fisher had to say on CNBC this morning at Jackson Hole. Here is a man right at the center of the rate hike debate and he chose his words very carefully. He is optimistic about our improving economy and sees no inflation but would not commit himself one way or the other regarding interest rates. More importantly he does not see the recent disruption in China highlighted by economy rumors and currency devaluation as any big deal.

This from Martin Crutsinger (AP) - US consumer spending up moderate 0.3 percent in July - U.S. consumers increased their spending by a moderate amount in July, while income growth was propelled by the largest jump in wages and salaries in eight months.

The Commerce Department says spending rose 0.3 percent in July, helped by a big jump in purchases of big-ticket items such as cars. June's result was revised up to a matching 0.3 percent gain. Incomes increased 0.4 percent. The key category of wages and salaries rose 0.5 percent, the biggest advance since last November.

The report indicates that consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of economic activity, got off to a good start in the third quarter. Economists believe the economy will be fueled in the second half of this year by solid income and spending gains.

Silver closed up $0.09 at $14.51. The dip in prices on Wednesday confirmed a technical paper picture which can’t get its act together but the floor forgot to tell the physical market. We continue to sell all the physical product we can buy in record turnaround times.

Platinum closed up $15.00 at $1021.00 and palladium closed up $21.00 at $589.00. Platinum is now trading for $110.00 less than gold but the public is now taking advantage of trading gold bullion for platinum bullion – a trade that has been ignored for several weeks.

This from James Hyerczyk (FX Empire) - Crude Oil Surge Signals Short-term Bottom - Crude oil futures surged on Thursday on stronger equity prices and a stronger-than-expected weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration inventories report. Stock investors are in a bargain-hunting mood, taking advantage of relatively “cheaper” prices for a second day.

Considering the volatility we’ve seen this week in the financial markets, crude oil appears to be consolidating at this time. The main trend is still down, but October crude oil is in a position to close higher for the week if it can sustain a move over $40.45. This could trigger the start of a meaningful short-covering rally.

Fundamentally, the market is being supported by the EIA figures which showed weekly commercial crude oil stocks fell by 5.45 million barrels. This may be supportive for prices, however, we’ll have to see how the market handles high petroleum product inventories and a seasonal post-summer decline in refinery demand in the coming months.

December Comex Gold prices traded flat on Thursday after yesterday’s strong break which was triggered by a better-than-expected U.S. durable goods report. Today’s U.S. Gross Domestic Product report was stronger-than-expected, but gold traders failed to respond. However, this report is likely to keep a lid on any rallies.

Gold traders are worried that the relative calmness in the equity markets after China took positive action to stem the volatility, and the strong U.S. economic reports this week may have put the Fed back on track for a September rate hike.

Yesterday’s strong durable goods data and today’s solid GDP report are helping to pressure the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Additionally, the stock market recovery has taken out some of the volatility that earlier in the week drove down the U.S. Dollar.

Today, the U.S. reported that preliminary GDP was up 3.7% versus an estimate of 3.2%. Last quarter showed an increase of 2.3%.

Weekly unemployment claims came in at 271K. This was below the 275K estimate. Pending home sales came in at 0.5%, missing the 1.3% guess.

Tomorrow will be an important day for the Euro with Germany and Spain reporting their preliminary CPI figures. The GBP/USD is also expected to be active as traders will likely react to the latest Second Estimate GDP report. Traders are looking for a reading of 1.6%. This is lower than the previous 2.0% reading.

Our Patented Employee Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 8 believe gold will be higher next week – 3 think gold will be lower and 1 thinks it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 52 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 36 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 12 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Aug. 24 – Aug. 28

The walk in cash trade was busy and the phones were also busy – as you can see from the Activity Scale we are approaching the crazy level. An interesting twist – there has been a dramatic increase in very large IRA transactions.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 9” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 9) (Thursday – 8). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your weekend.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Slightly Weaker - Signals Mixed

Commentary for Thursday, Aug 27, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $2.20 at $1122.40 – a mild drop after yesterday and I expected a steeper decline as the short paper traders gear up for another push to the downside.

The dollar was firm – the Dollar Index traded between 94.99 and 96.03 – we are now around 95.71 with a positive bias so the dollar is once again getting stronger and has been since Monday morning when we were below 93.00.

The equities are also back in the game, paring gains today but still strong since Monday’s big move to the downside over the China scare. This kind of big money play in paper always detracts from the physical world. As long as the average Wall Street guy believes there is little in the way of safe-haven buying for the paper trade.

Gross Domestic Product numbers released today continue to encourage.

Silver closed up $0.37 at $14.42. Business here remains very busy but not crazy.

American’s love affair with the Silver Eagle continues – this according to Coin World: The U.S. Mint's authorized purchasers will have to wait until Aug. 31 to learn the bureau's next weekly allocation of silver American Eagle bullion coins after purchasing the current week's allotment in just two days. The Aug. 24 allocation was 812,500 coins, 601,000 of which were purchased Aug. 24 and the remaining 211,500 on Aug. 25. Silver Eagle bullion coin demand has stretched the Mint's production limits.

Platinum closed up $26.00 at $1006.00 and palladium was up $39.00 at $586.00. The price of platinum is now $116.00 less than the price of gold – this difference is narrowing. Lonmin a South Africa platinum producer announced more job cuts – they are expected to lay off 6000 workers and reduce annual production by 100,000 ounces – according to them mining is unprofitable at current price levels.

Gold’s short term fate is still in the hands of the Federal Government. This morning on CNBC they had an interesting conversation about “when” the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. They actually put a chart up on the screen which compared major bank time estimation for the first step in interest rate normalization since the financial crisis. The range was very wide – some believe the Fed will raise rates in a few months; the longest out was in March of next year.

I am still hedging – because of the uncertain overseas markets. Believe me if the Fed gets this wrong there could be a great deal of red ink on Wall Street.

The good part of this interest rate equation is that the price of gold continues to settle. Gold is anticipating this negative event and over the next few months the actual event may be less turbulent than some expect.

Why? Because the threat of “higher interest rates” is always more powerful than the actual rate increase everyone is worried about and subsequent moves by the Federal Reserve to “normalize” interest rates will take years. Think about it – we have had near zero interest rates for 7 years, that’s unheard of relative to business stimulation.

The Fed has created a kind of “Rube Goldberg” situation with the interest rate machine. Reuben Garrett Lucius "Rube" Goldberg was an American cartoonist best known for cartoons depicting complicated machines whose actual function was lost in translation. When I was in college a favorite professor was proud of displaying some of Goldberg’s work behind his desk - with this admonition – this isn’t engineering it’s lunacy.

My point being that the Federal Reserve is worried – not that they will show their hand, but they are in uncharted waters. That is the reason they won’t commit other than to say that the rise in interest rates will be “data dependent”.

They have been talking about raising rates for years and during that time gold has moved lower by several hundred dollars. You may find that by the time the Fed does raise rates the change in the price of gold might be small because the real market has already discounted the news.

This from Jeffrey Sparshott (Associated Press) - GDP Numbers Reveal Underlying Momentum, Possible Headwinds for U.S. Economy - WASHINGTON—Consumer, business and government spending helped propel better-than-expected U.S. growth in the second quarter of the year, a hopeful sign for an economy buffeted by overseas turmoil and sharp gyrations in equity markets.

Gross domestic product, the broadest sum of goods and services produced across the economy, expanded at a 3.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter of 2015, the Commerce Department said Thursday, up from the initial estimate of 2.3% growth.

The latest U.S. numbers stand in contrast to much of the rest of the world, where financial troubles, falling commodity prices or broader uncertainty have been hindering growth. But the sharp U.S. rebound, after a weak start to the year, appears likely to settle back into a familiar up-and-down pattern that equates to overall modest growth.

Indeed, GDP growth averaged only 2.2% during the first half of the year—right in line with the expansion as a whole. “Despite some sharp swings in the quarterly growth rates, we don’t look for this to change much,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp.

The U.S. GDP expanded at a brisker pace than initially thought in the second quarter of 2015. What does this mean for the September Fed decision? Will they raise rates? WSJ's Eric Morath joins Lunch Break to discuss.

Thursday’s GDP numbers offer a backward view of the economy, detailing a three-month stretch that ended in June. Concerns about China have since battered global markets and introduced greater uncertainty into forecasts for the U.S. economy. But economists and policy makers will examine the latest numbers closely for clues on what factors may be adding to growth in the current quarter. Federal Reserve officials will weigh the latest hard data against volatility in markets as they consider raising the central bank’s benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006 at their next meeting in mid-September. Many economists and some top Fed officials have recently cast doubt on a rate increase next month amid so much China-driven volatility overseas.

“I think the Fed would want to see a little stronger momentum growth in the economy” before raising rates, said Tim Hopper, chief economist at TIAA-CREF. “With financial market turmoil like we’ve seen over the past week and a half or so, I think that strengthens the argument for a December hike.”

The latest GDP numbers show some underlying momentum but also possible headwinds for the U.S. economy. Consumer spending, representing more than two-thirds of economic output, grew at a 3.1% rate in the second quarter, compared with the initially reported 2.9%. The new reading is a marked improvement from the first quarter’s 1.8%, a possible sign of an improving consumer outlook amid steady hiring and lower gasoline prices.

Spending on home building and improvements advanced at a 7.8% pace, compared with a previous reading of 6.6% and a first-quarter gain of 10.1%. Solid readings may carry into the third quarter—July single-family housing starts and existing home sales both have touched new post-recession highs.

And the latest figures on business investment—reflecting spending on construction, equipment, and research and development—are especially welcome. The category rose at a 3.2% pace, compared with an earlier estimate of a 0.6% decline, suggesting a degree of optimism about future demand.

It is less clear whether that will continue amid global uncertainty and economic crosscurrents that are supporting, for example, strong auto sales but suppressing demand for mining equipment.

SWD Inc., an Addison, Ill., maker of fasteners used to bolt together Ford trucks, John Deere tractors, Whirlpool appliances and other goods, invested $7.5 million in expansion and capital equipment in 2012 but now is holding off on a roughly $5 million project to add more capacity.

“I would have thought we would have a decision by now, but we haven’t made it,” said Rick Delawder, company president. “We’re still trying to gauge what this economy is going to do, what our customers are going to need. Is the economy going to continue to have strength and if it does, that makes our decision much easier.”

And inventories—which add to GDP when they are rising—are one factor likely to weigh on growth in the second half of the year. Companies have added heavily to stockpiles, an accumulation of goods that is unlikely to continue into the current quarter.

“Inventories will be a mild drag on growth in the second half of the year,” said Stu Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services.

A stronger dollar and lackluster overseas growth may also squeeze exporters. Net exports contributed 0.23 percentage point to GDP in the second quarter, only the second time since the start of 2014 that trade hasn’t been a drag on top-line economic growth.

Government spending offers a final wild card for GDP. Federal expenditures and investment were flat in the second quarter while state and local levels jumped 4.3%, the strongest increase since 2001. That is a positive sign—government spending was a drag through much of the recovery—but the figures are volatile, leaving their impact on the second half uncertain.

This is our usual Thursday Chicago Mercantile Exchange report covering the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the “Dec.” Gold contract: Thursday 8/20 (315,796) – Friday 8/21 (311,379) – Monday 8/24 (309,962) – Tuesday 8/25 (303,186) – Wednesday 8/26 (293,384). These numbers remain in the higher end of the range.

This from Sarah Benali (Kitco) - Equity Drop Will Unlikely Have Major Bearing on US Economy – Capital Economics - As analysts question whether or not the Federal Reserve will delay tightening following the recent drop in global equities, and subsequent volatility, one UK-based research firm says the stock slump is unlikely to have major bearing on the economy. “We doubt the recent plunge in global equity prices will have a major bearing on the FOMC’s decision next month. Nonetheless, it may provide an excuse for the Committee to hold fire,” John Higgins, chief markets economist for Capital Economics, says in a research note Thursday. U.S. equities surprised markets, opening the week much lower on concerns over China – the world’s second largest economy. “But the decline of 10% or so [in U.S. stocks] has already been partially unwound and may be further before the FOMC meets next month,” he notes. “Of course, if policymakers in the U.S. think, as [New York Fed] President [William] Dudley seemed to suggest on Wednesday, that slowing demand in China may have a lasting adverse effect on the U.S. economy, or that the risks of tightening policy now are too great given the prevailing low level of inflation, then they may hold fire. But this is not a done deal given the further signs of strength that the U.S. economy has been showing lately.”

This from Jan Harvey - Gold falls for 4th day as U.S. data boosts stocks, dollar - LONDON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Gold eased on Thursday after its biggest one-day drop in five weeks as upbeat U.S. growth and jobs data drove stocks and the dollar higher, though uncertainty over the timing of a U.S. rate rise held losses in check.

Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $1,119.35 an ounce at 1345 GMT, and U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down $5.30 an ounce at $1,119.30.

U.S. stocks opened higher and the dollar firmed after data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter and jobless claims fell more than expected last week. European stocks extended gains to 3.4 percent.

"The data came in above expectations, and it's really going to be down to the wire for the rate hike," ING commodities analyst Hamza Khan said. "It's not making the picture for gold any clearer, which is why we haven't been able to maintain a large sell-off, or a large rally."

A three-day slide in gold prices has eroded the bulk of last week's gains, made after speculation gained traction that the Federal Reserve may raise rates later than had been expected.

It is still up nearly 5 percent from July's 5-1/2 year low of $1,077, but has given up more than 3 percent since touching a seven-week peak of $1,168.40 last week, hurt by a rebound in the dollar and other assets.

Stocks surged after a U.S. Federal Reserve policymaker said the case for an interest rate increase next month seemed "less compelling" than it was a few weeks ago.

Gold tends to benefit from ultra-low rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion while boosting the dollar.

Other precious metals rebounded from this week's slide. Platinum was up 1.6 percent to $990.74 and silver was up 0.4 percent at $14.18. Palladium was up 2.4 percent at $545 an ounce after falling to a near five-year low of $528 on Wednesday. It is still down nearly 10 percent this week.

"Positioning on Nymex suggests that weakness had initially been driven by aggressive shorts while exchange-traded fund liquidations added to the pressure," UBS said in a note.

"With the exception of gold, palladium now has the leanest positioning within the precious metals complex. This suggests that while sentiment remains frail and charts continue to look worrisome, the market may now be nearing a bottom."

The walk in cash trade was again busy today – thanks for your patience. The phones were also very active as the public is encouraged by product shortage.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is an “ 8” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 7) (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 9). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

See How American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins Are Made

The American Eagle Silver Bullion is prized as among the most beautiful coins in existence. If you are an avid collector of silver coins for sale, you may want to learn more about how the American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin is made. The United States Mint in West Point, New York creates millions of American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins each year. To learn more about how these silver coins are made, be sure to watch this video from The-Euro-Zone.

If you are interested in shopping for certified rare coins, look no further than the fantastic pieces that California Numismatic Investments has to offer you. We proudly offer our customers throughout the country with a fantastic range of gold and silver coins. To learn more about our services, give us a call today at (800) 225-7531.

Gold Moves below its 50 Day Moving Average

Commentary for Wednesday, Aug 26, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $12.30 on the Comex today at $1124.60. This is follow-through selling from yesterday created by more profit taking and a stronger dollar.

The gold market was generally flat in overnight trading both in London and Hong Kong but began to show weakness in the early domestic market. The move to lower ground was supported by a weaker dollar – the Dollar Index trading range today has been 93.72 through 95.00 and we are now trading at 94.91 with an upward bias so the index has gained almost a full point.

This most recent weakness has been underpinned by continued problems in China which has been reflected in US stocks – they remain choppy as the fear factor comes and goes. There is something about this latest wobble that bothers me. I’m not negative stocks – but that 1000 point drop on Monday was unnerving – and the overnight recovery is worrisome.

The greatest losses in the 1929 crash were suffered after the first shock – investors shrugged it off – a mistake because as we all know bigger problems were brewing. I’m not that worried about Wall Street but I am nervous over China and would sleep better if everyone was at least concerned.

As far as the sell-off in gold is concerned remember my “profit taking” scenario these last few newsletters. This all makes sense and may continue now that the bears are back in the swimming pool. The additional problem created by the China syndrome, “safe-haven” buying in the dollar, and lower oil was the icing on the cake.

There is also the “cause and effect” problem when stocks weaken. A great deal of the stock action both here and overseas is fueled by cheap money leveraged speculation. China may become the poster child in this case – but when this craziness hits the fan, the owners of physical precious metals may be pushed into selling gold or silver bullion to cover their leveraged broker account.

The Federal Reserve rate increase is off the table for now but will soon be resurrected - another boogie man for the gold market to worry about and encourage negative trader sentiment.

And yet all large dealers in the United States are selling everything they can get into stock and could backorder twice that amount as precious metals get cheaper.

Continue to watch gold’s moving averages – 50 DMA ($1135.00) – 100 DMA ($1164.00) and 200 DMA ($1188.00) against today’s close ($1124.60). We are now trading below all three so all recent momentum to the upside has dissipated – computer trading models for paper players are negative and the short money is back in the game. This is especially dangerous because we are still in a reasonable profit position from our last test of recent lows.

The advantage presented in the physical market is that the public likes “cheaper” – and physical demand gathers momentum quickly especially when the public senses that product availability is drying up. We were recently visited by one of the world’s largest refiners for a “show and tell” and even they are backlogged – when asked why delivery is delayed by several weeks they just laughed and said this drop in prices caught everyone by surprise.

Counterintuitive forces – you may think that lower gold prices means everyone is selling. World Gold Council says that demand from India (July through December) will hit record levels this year. They particularly cite lower prices as the big incentive and claim India will import 1,000 tonnes of gold this year.

Silver closed down $0.56 today at $14.05. This is a particularly large breakdown at these lower levels so the already increased buying in the physical market should now go crazy especially because there is product shortage in some of the usual favorites. Today’s close looks like a 6 year low for silver and the technical paper picture looks terrible but demand for real physical bullion is doing just fine – the trick here is to buy what’s available.

Thoughts about “shortages” in bullion products and how to approach the “shortage” market - the problem with delivery in the public’s mind is that most equate “shortage” with actual scarcity. The two words are not necessarily related and it’s also important to understand that unfortunately this trade, like most other human endeavors driven by capitalism is subject to the manipulation in the distribution chain. Let’s talk about US Silver Eagles Monster Boxes for example – are they worth $4.00 over spot?

When the US Mint gets behind the production curve (like they are now) and the price of silver dips you can expect delay problems – fair enough, the public can decide if they want to pay a ridiculous premium but I suggest choosing a different silver bullion product.

There is also a “jamming” feature in the Silver Eagle market which bothers me – the Mint has produced millions and millions and millions of Silver Eagles - how can there, all of a sudden not be product for delivery even in the secondary market?

I suspect that the real reason is premium manipulation, while the Mint is on the backside of the power curve everyone else in the supply chain can add another dollar or two because “no one” has product. The minute the US Mint begins delivery premiums will drop like a rock saving consumers a great deal of money and stopping all the sandbagging going on now behind closed doors.

Platinum closed up $4.00 at $980.00 and palladium closed down $11.00 at $529.00. Platinum is now trading for $144.00 less than gold. I would not say the public is lining up to trade gold bullion for platinum bullion but there is activity in this area. It is hindered somewhat because the US Mint is not striking the US Platinum Eagle but alternative choices are entering the marketplace.

This is our complete ETF Wednesday information – All Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-19-15 was 48,842,781. That number this week 8-26-15 is 49,407,833 ounces so over the last week we gained 565,052 ounces of gold.

The all-time record high for all gold ETF’s was 85,112,855 ounces in 2013. The record high for Gold ETF’s in 2015 is 53,901,867 and the record low for 2015 is 48,751,079.

All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-19-15 was 617,272,970. That number this week 8-26-15 is 616,557,736 ounces so over the last week we dropped 715,234 ounces of silver.

All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-19-15 was 2,729,466 ounces. That number this week 8-26-15 is 2,724,763 ounces so over the last week we dropped 4,703 ounces of platinum.

All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-19-15 was 3,014,960 ounces. That number this week 8-26-15 is 3,015,096 ounces so over the last week we gained 136 ounces of palladium.

The walk in cash trade and the phones were busy all day – sorry for any inconvenience. As you can see from our Activity Scale the downstairs has been a scramble most of the day. One of my favorite metrics is the number of pots of coffee brewed for the public and staff – I lost track after 18 pots around 11:00 o’clock.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 9” for Wednesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Thursday – 8) (last Friday – 7) (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Page 1 of 144 1 2 3 4 5 6 7  . . . 140 141 142 143 144   Next