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Gold Moves Higher on a Weaker Dollar

Commentary for Tuesday, Jan 27, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold on the Comex closed up $12.30 at $1291.70 as the dollar lost value over disappointing durable goods numbers released today – and the aftermarket continued higher by about $3.00.

This was actually a big turnaround as gold pulled back in overnight trading – reaching a low around $1275.00. Then the market stabilized around $1280.00 and progressed higher moving over $1290.00 before the traders went home.

All of this was created out of whole cloth as the dollar weakened by 1% because sentiment early in the day was negative and gold was looking at another round of profit taking. US equities set the stage down nearly 400 points before cutting this loss in half on the close.

There were some believers that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates given the sketchy jobs number. That group is now growing – remember it was not too long ago that the blessed believers were sure the government would raise interest rates by summer. Another day like this and we will be talking about raising rates in 2016 – which is good for gold.

Silver closed up $0.10 at $18.06. This market remains quiet but the US Mint is producing Silver Eagles like crazy and selling everything they manufacture. For the record they began selling again on Jan 12 th and have sold 4 million coins to date. Silver Eagles are of course big sellers but older 90% silver coins minted before 1965 are still much cheaper at $1.70 over spot.

This is interesting from Koos Jansen (Bullionstar Blogs) - India Silver Import 2014 at 7,063 Tonnes, Up 15 % - India's customs department, the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence & Statistics (DGCIS), just released the QUICK ESTIMATES FOR SELECTED MAJOR COMMODITIES for December 2014. According to DGCIS the figures for December are provisional and subject to change, however, I've been tracking these quick estimates for months and they are reasonably accurate – compared to the official numbers that lag a few months .

In December India imported $182.31 million in silver; divided by an average price of $16.30 an ounce this accounts for 11,188,095 ounces, or 348 tonnes, down 72 % from 1,254 tonnes in November. The total gross amount of silver imported in 2014 accounted for a whopping 7,063 tonnes, up 15 % from the shocking 6,125 tonnes in 2013. As far as my data goes back (2009) net silver import 2014, 7,055 tonnes, is a record.

Platinum closed up $10.00 at $1265.00 and palladium closed unchanged at $782.00. I have been beating the drum for weeks now about the price of platinum ($1265.00) versus the price of gold ($1291.00. Not often do you see this kind of discount – but this market remained overlooked. Until the last few days – the public finally decided to pull the trigger. The US Platinum Eagle, Canadian Platinum Maple and Perth Mint Koala are all now in short supply.

As quarterly earning disappointed today stocks headed south and some might infer this helped the gold market. A drop of 300 points during the trading day has been shown to be no big deal these days especially with the mountain of money now held by banks and big corporations.

To see why gold moved higher a look at the dollar might be a good idea. The weak durable goods orders did slam stocks but this number also caused the Dollar Index to move from yesterday's close (94.93) into today's lower trading range (94.10). WTI crude oil also remains steady around $46.00 a barrel which helps both stocks and gold on the shorter term.

Still I would not make too much of these day to day hiccups in the price of gold. Downbeat durable goods or a half point swing in the Dollar Index really turns out to be background noise. The bigger picture here is Europe and the European Union – not short term but how their monetary play will work over the next several years.

The US has dodged the bullet with its excessive QE programs for years but the new euro program might be a horse of a different color. At any rate this should be the bigger focus and the time frame should be something like 2015/2016. This will give everyone time enough to plan – no need to hurry here but the clock is ticking.

I have made this point before but want to restate the case because it appears gold's recent surge has turned choppy and so expect the usual anti-gold rhetoric to get louder. And as long as gold cannot show strength above $1350.00 it has not regained its deserved anti-fiat money status. But these Keynesian monetary tricks in the US or Europe cannot last forever and so your physical gold barometer is not broken it has just lost its way on the shorter term.

To steady your nerves you don't need spirits just a 1 year gold chart. The price of gold began around $1250.00 and moved within a $100.00 range above and below that middle ground for 12 months. Today we are very close to unchanged versus Jan of 2014.

Now look at oil during that same 12 month period – we have moved from around $90.00 a barrel up to $100.00 during the summer months of 2014 and then saw an amazing downward trend which has taken us to the $47.00 range. Consider the big plus for the American consumer, putting more money into their pockets and thus helping our recovery and providing a virtual guarantee that inflation will not be an increasing problem in 2015. The last two factors do nothing to encourage physical safe haven buying in the United States.

Finally consider the mighty dollar. During the last 12 months the Dollar Index has ranged from a low of 78.00 to a high of 95.00 (the most recent number being 94.91) so we are at yearly highs - with no reason to believe it will sell off anytime soon. This crazy surge was created as the US recovery caught traction and at the same time the European Union began to devalue the euro with quantitative easing talk and then action.

There are some problems with how the Germans are embracing this new QE approach. When the European Union created the euro they assured everyone that no such fiat currency program would be considered let alone adopted.

So to say our German friends are nervous would be an understatement - they are because they have experienced runaway inflation. I am not suggesting this is the current case but the prescient is worth remembering. And this discussion from a visiting German friend has already happened over a beer and bratwurst in Munich.

So back to my gold pricing beginning – during all of these challenging circumstances we are about unchanged during these past 12 months. I'm not saying we are out of the woods – a bottom may not yet be in place. Especially with potential higher interest rates right around the corner – but all things considered, we could be doing much worse.

The walk-in cash trade was on the slow side today and so were the phones. Also the weather on the East Coast is slowing precious metals deliveries from the big depositories.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a " 3" for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 3) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the "book".

Our "activity" is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer .

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Factors to Consider Before You Buy Your First Gold Bullion

Gold is a terrific investment vehicle, especially when you buy and sell physical gold coins. Unlike most other capital assets, gold bullion does not rely on the performance of the management or another's ability to pay, such as bonds and bank savings. It's no wonder a survey of recent American investors rated gold higher than stocks, bonds, real estate, and bank savings. But like any investment, investing in gold bullion requires a significant amount of research and due-diligence. To help you get started, here's a look at some important factors to consider before you buy your first gold bullion .

Buying Gold Bullion

Bullion Bars vs. Bullion Coins
As a physical asset, bullion is inherently valuable—that is to say, bullion has tangible, intrinsic, and innate value in and of itself. Bullion is sold in two different forms: bars and coins. Bullion coins are produced in large quantities and come in a variety of sizes, which are convenient to own and trade. Unlike commemorative or numismatic coins, bullion coins are valued by their weight in gold. Bullion bars are rectangular blocks of investment-grade gold ingot manufactured by commercial refiners.

Buying and Selling Strategy
Before you invest in gold bullion bars or coins, sit down and think about your investing strategy. In other words, what are your short- and long-term goals? A clear investment strategy serves as a roadmap for buying and selling gold bullion to meet your goals. Another important factor is the percentage of your total assets tied up in gold bullion. A gold dealer can help you determine the best buying and selling strategy to maximize your short- or long-term returns.

The Gold Dealer
Who you buy gold from can be just as important as the actual gold you buy. If you're interested in purchasing gold bullion , California Numismatic Investments can help. California Numismatic Investments has provided expert guidance in the field of precious metal exchange for over 30 years. Visit our website to see the gold bullion we currently offer, or call us toll-free at (888) 880-7101 to speak with one of our gold experts.

Gold Lower on Profit Taking and Strong Dollar

Commentary for Monday, Jan 26, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $13.20 at $1279.40 on continued pressure selling from Friday on profit taking and a strong dollar.

The Syriza party as expected won Greek elections over the weekend. They are Marxist, left leaning and anti-austerity. There has been some concern that they may want to leave the European Union but a recent poll showed 74% of Greeks are against such a move – but such talk may just be saber rattling in a move to gain strength as the new governing party renegotiates austerity provisions.

Silver closed down $0.32 at $17.86. Keep in mind that some profit taking in silver is also expected as it has rallied about 18% from recent lows. Activity has picked up in $1000 face 90% silver bags which are now trading at $1.70 over spot delivered.

Platinum closed down $12.00 at $1255.00 and palladium closed down $8.00 at $782.00.

Gold is weaker on continued profit taking and classic "buy the rumor and sell the fact" trading. The expected boost to the price of gold on specific EU quantitative easing plans last week provided no follow through safe-haven buying in Europe. The euro fell to as low as 1.109 today but don't think that just because the EU has begun inflating that the euro will continue weaker.

And even the anti-euro election results in Greece provided little good news for gold. The reason Greece gets press is not because their piece of the EU pie matters much – it is because their problems of ballooning debt and lack of economic traction create a bigger concern that all is not right in Europe.

This concern is overblown in my mind and so while Greece creates tension it is not a big prime mover. The interest rate she pays on bonds has moved from less than 6% to about 10% so there are problems but we have seen this many times before and there has been no domino effect.

What seems to be holding gold back after this most recent run is the usual culprit – look at the 5 day chart on the Dollar Index. We have moved from 93 to 95 and WTI crude oil is steady around $45.00 a barrel. The stronger dollar and stable crude oil coupled with a low inflation model encourages the paper markets. Look at the European exchanges this morning after the EU President Draghi's announcement last week of formal quantitative easing.

I would not go as far as saying this looks like a relief rally in European stocks but clearly the Draghi move helped calm the waters. They are reacting the same way as our stock market did when we were buying bonds.

Money remains cheap and corporations are masters at deploying large sums in this environment. Under these rules corporations can borrow huge sums – buy back stock and pay high dividends relative to US interest rates.

These factors coupled with the expectation of lower inflation creates less excitement for gold traders and less buzz in the US physical markets. Keep in mind however this is not a one-way street - physical gold defined in say the euro or the ruble is looking pretty good.

This most recent pullback in gold will also be subject to the actions by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week. The usual format (Tues and Wed) with no information released until after market closes on Wednesday. Most expect no changes in the interest rate which will support gold on the shorter term. But higher interest rates (sooner or later) will pose another challenge to gold in the short to medium term so there is still plenty of heavy lifting to be done in 2015.

Technically the bulls still have an advantage on the short term – but that's all because momentum is waning. Gold over the past 30 days is in positive territory by around $80.00 and support looks reasonable within $10.00 either side of $1280.00.

Gold's Moving Averages here are important: 50 Day ($1214.00) – 100 Day ($1212.00) – 200 Day ($1252.00). For now we are trading above all three which makes the bulls happy but any move toward the important 200 Day Moving Average ($1252.00) will make everyone very nervous. On the shorter term a move below the $1280.00 range will signal further consolidation.

This from Bloomberg (Eddie van der Walt) - Russia Adds to World's Fifth-Biggest Gold Reserves for 9th Month - Russia is showing no signs of slowing gold purchases as the fifth-biggest holder boosted reserves for a ninth month.

The country's gold reserves rose to about 38.8 million ounces as of Jan. 1 from 38.2 million ounces a month earlier, the central bank said today on its website. It's the longest stretch of monthly increases since August 2013, data from the International Monetary Fund show.

Russia has more than tripled its gold hoard since 2005 and holds the most since at least 1993, even as it recently had to use its international reserves to defend the ruble. Sanctions imposed by the U.S., the European Union and their allies have compounded the effect of plunging energy prices and led Russia's economy to the brink of recession. The ruble slid almost 50 percent in the past 12 months.

"For a central bank to change direction quickly is unlikely and Russia has been buying gold for a while," David Jollie, an analyst at Mitsui & Co. Precious Metals Inc. in London, said by phone Thursday. "But it is a bit surprising to see them swapping foreign currency for gold in an environment where oil prices are falling."

The latest purchase equals about 18.7 metric tons, similar to amounts bought in November and October, and compares with 37.3 tons added in September.

The walk-in cash trade was off today but not exactly quiet and the phones saw significant action on the open but faded later in the day. I still think the real physical market lacks some conviction – they were not exactly lining up after Friday's information concerning the new ECB playbook.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a " 4" for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 5) (last Wednesday – 3) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 3). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the "book".

Our "activity" is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer .

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Lower on Profit Taking and a Stronger Dollar

Commentary for Friday, Jan 23, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold on the Comex closed down $8.10 at $1292.80 on a round of expected profit taking and a stronger dollar.

The Dollar Index is reacting to the European Union quantitative easing program put in place Thursday. So the euro moves lower and the dollar continues strong – the Dollar Index low on the day was 94.11 and its high was a whopping 95.50. As of this writing it has settled somewhat around 94.88 but remains on a tear and is responsible for some of the weakness in gold this morning. I also think the reaction to the latest financial move by the European Union yesterday was disappointing – the markets look tired and it was easy to anticipate profit taking in gold, especially on the short term.

Like I hinted at yesterday – be careful what you ask for - if you are a gold enthusiast. The gold market reacted in the classic fashion – bought the rumor and sold the fact. So it remains to be seen how long it will take the new European quantitative easing program to push prices higher.

It's too soon to guess – but we may be in another "wait and see" mode especially because there are so many changes now being made with the international monetary picture. All of these are not necessarily dangerous but with this many moving parts the results are not obvious.

Still the European Central Bank will buy a lot of bonds - 60 billion euros worth every month until Sept 2016 – a very aggressive program. And the Germans are not happy – they are actually making money so anything the ECB does out of the ordinary makes them very nervous – especially because when this road show got started this kind of quantitative easing was not allowed.

There is also another seasoning in this financial stew which continues to simmer on the backburner. Over the weekend there will be an election in Greece and the opposition Syriza party is holding a 6 point lead. Their success is likely to cause even more weakness in the Euro.

And finally with the dollar so strong there is concern about our still lethargic growth rate – most think this all will keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates anytime soon – which supports gold.

Still gold was up $16.00 on the week but considering all the financial fireworks I would have expected more action.

Silver closed down $0.06 at $18.28. Still the recently higher pop in the price of silver was a "cooler". If you are so inclined consider the popular $1000 face 90% silver bag. Silver bullion in the form of 1964 or older silver coins is selling at $1.70 over spot – delivered. The competition ranges from $2.10 to $3.00 over spot.

Platinum closed down $17.00 at $1267.00 and palladium was up $1.00 at $774.00. Yesterday I mentioned that the Canadian Mint was the only world mint producing a 1 ounce platinum bullion coin. The US and Perth Mint have ceased production. Today the Canadians sold out of platinum bullion coins – they will continue to produce but it will take a few weeks.

It was not too long ago that Ukraine fighting pushed the price of gold higher by more than $50.00 on several occasions. Do you not find it interesting that the press has completely ignored this AP post and there is also no mention of safe-haven buying because of this escalation? This kind of non-action leads to my conclusion that gold is tired.

This from Associated Press - NATO: Fighting In Eastern Ukraine Fiercer Than Ever - Fighting in eastern Ukraine is fiercer than ever in some locations, NATO's top commander in Europe said Thursday — adding that the weapons systems seen now in the region have in the past heralded a fresh incursion by Russian troops.

"Violence has intensified and changed character in Ukraine," U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove told a news conference at NATO headquarters. He said the fighting has re-escalated to levels seen before the Sept. 5 Minsk cease-fire agreement "and in some cases beyond."

Questioned by reporters, Breedlove, the alliance's chief commander in Europe, said he couldn't confirm Ukrainian authorities' statements that 9,000 Russian troops had entered the country.

"(But) what we do see is that the Russian-backed forces have renewed capability now to bring pressure on the Ukrainian forces, and have in several places moved the line of contact to the west," he added.

What's more, said Breedlove, NATO intelligence has begun to detect "the signatures of air defense systems and electronic warfare systems that have accompanied past Russian troop movements into Ukraine."

He declined to specify which systems, and whether they include the Buk mobile surface-to-air missile battery blamed for shooting down a Malaysian jetliner on July 17, killing all 298 people aboard. But on two prior occasions, Breedlove said, deployment of such weaponry was accompanied by a border crossing by Russian troops.

"We see the same types of equipment, etc. in eastern Ukraine now," he said.

Breedlove spoke after defense chiefs from NATO's 28 nations met to help the alliance meet its wide-ranging agenda for 2015.

Without disclosing many details, Breedlove said a decision was made taken to restore direct contacts between NATO and the chief of the Russian general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, ties that were broken off after Russia's annexation of Crimea last March.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange reports for the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the February Gold contract: Wednesday 1/14 (178,496) - Thursday 1/15 (189,258) – Friday 1/16 (184,200) – Tuesday 1/20 (181669) and Wednesday 1/21 (176,363). On the higher end of the range but coming off somewhat meaning volume numbers are decreasing.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Jan 20 - 23

Gold - Silver - G/S Ratio - Dollar

Mon (Closed)

Tues $1294.20 $17.94 72.14 93.05

Wed $1293.70 $18.17 71.20 92.74

Thurs $1300.70 $18.34 70.92 94.31

Fri $1292.80 $18.28 70.72 94.81

Platinum - Palladium - Rhodium - Oil

Mon (Closed)

Tues $1287.00 $774.00 $1180.00 46.48

Wed $1277.00 $768.00 $1180.00 47.03

Thurs $1284.00 $773.00 $1180.00 47.28

Fri $1267.00 $774.00 $1180.00 45.54

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold's Direction Next Week?

Of course it's not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 5 believe gold will be higher next week – 3 think gold will be lower and 4 believe it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold's Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 59 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 28 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 13 think prices will remain the same.

This from Associated Press - Recent moves by central banks, at a glance - It's been an action-packed couple of weeks for some of the world's central banks.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank unveiled its latest plan to support Europe's stagnating economy: It pledged to start spending 60 billion euros on government and private bonds every month. The news helped lift stock prices and drove the value of the euro to new lows.

The ECB's announcement followed surprise moves by the Swiss National Bank last week and the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Here are steps that major central banks around the world have taken recently to try to support their economies:

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK - Interest rates: The European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.05 percent Thursday. Other policies: Later in the day, the ECB launched its most aggressive effort to date to revive the region's ailing economy — a 19-month program to buy 1.1 trillion euros in government and private bonds starting in March. It acted after months of excessively low inflation in the eurozone that has discouraged borrowing and spending and kept the economy at risk of recession. By pumping new money into the eurozone's banking system, the ECB's bond purchases should make loans cheaper and easier to get so companies can invest, expand and hire. The size of the program exceeded investors' expectations, and the value of the euro fell on anticipation that the new money from the ECB would drive down the currency's value.

DENMARK CENTRAL BANK - Interest rates: Shortly after the ECB's announcement, Denmark's central bank announced its second rate cut in three days to try to discourage euro-fleeing investors from buying its currency, the krone. It lowered its deposit rate further into negative territory to minus 0.35 percent from minus 0.2 percent. On Monday, it had lowered the rate to minus 0.2 percent from minus .05 percent. Because Denmark pegs its currency to the euro, Danish officials have had to respond when the ECB's actions threaten to destabilize that peg.

Other policies: The Danish central bank has intervened in currency markets in recent months to try to control the value of the krone.

SWISS NATIONAL BANK - Interest rates: Switzerland sent financial markets into turmoil last week when it slashed rates and abandoned efforts to cap the franc's value against the euro. It cut the rate on commercial bank deposits to a shockingly low minus 0.75 percent in order to ward off investors from the Swiss franc.

Other policies: Since 2011, the Swiss National Bank has had a program to keep its franc from appreciating too much against other currencies — most importantly the euro. The bank had set a limit of 1.20 francs to the euro to keep its rise in check. But it became untenable for the SNB to keep up its program as the euro weakened. So the SNB decided on Jan. 15 to allow the market to re-price the franc. In doing so, it triggered a massive re-pricing that drove the currency to gain more than 20 percent against the euro.

FEDERAL RESERVE - Interest rates: In contrast to their counterparts in other big economies of the world, the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising rates from record lows. But it will be "patient" in deciding when to do so, the central bank said after its last meeting in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the strength of U.S. economic data and the level of inflation, not a calendar date, will dictate when it raises rates. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week.

BANK OF CANADA - Interest rates: Canada's central bank surprised investors this week when it cut its key interest rate to 0.75 percent from 1 percent. Many economists had been expecting the Bank of Canada to keep rates steady until later this year or early 2016. The central bank said Wednesday's decision was driven by the "recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada."

CENTRAL BANK OF BRAZIL - Interest rates: Brazil's central bank on Wednesday hiked its benchmark interest to 12.25 percent to control high inflation. The central bank's inflation target is 4.5 percent, with an upper limit of 6.5 percent. But consumer prices over the past year have been stuck above that ceiling.

PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA - Interest rates: Chinese authorities have been cautious in tweaking monetary policy. The People's Bank of China lowered its benchmark rates in November for the first time in more than two years. The bank cut the rate on a one-year loan by commercial banks by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6 percent. The rate paid on a one-year savings was lowered by 0.25 point to 2.75 percent.

But the People's Bank of China may be pressured to do more as the world's No. 2 economy decelerates. Data released Tuesday showed that the Chinese economy grew 7.4 percent in 2014, its weakest performance in nearly a quarter-century. And its growth is forecast to slow even more over the next two years. Though China continues to grow at more than twice the pace of the overall world, its growth rate marks a sharp drop from the sizzling double-digit expansion of previous years.

The walk-in cash trade was average at best and the phones were sleepy.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a " 3" for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – closed) (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday – 3) (Thursday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the "book".

Our "activity" is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer .

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your weekend!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Higher on EU Stimulus

Commentary for Thursday, Jan 22, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $7.00 at $1300.70 as the European Union finally pulled the trigger on their plan to lower the price of the euro by printing more fiat paper money.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has been talking about this strategic monetary change for 2 ½ years but the actual path taken to help a struggling European Union was hidden behind everything from strict austerity to the printing press using a US type bond buying program.

The ECB will purchase 60 billion euros in bonds every month until September 2016. This will add liquidity to stimulate the varied economies and the quantitative easing will supposedly stimulate growth - classic Keynesianism theory that the government has your back. And of course opposite to the conservative Monetarist approach which considers the growth of the money supply.

However you want to describe this move – it was considered aggressive by most. Everyone knew the ECB was going to do something today and most speculated as to the size of the monetary jolt. The high end of the range was considered $1 trillion - this amounts to 840 billion euros.

This is much closer to the US reordering of the financial system when during the 2008 financial crisis it added $3 trillion to its balance sheet. The market response today was of course a falling euro (1.137) the lowest in 11 years.

We will have to wait and see but I don't see how the US is going to raise interest rates considering the falling euro and still unstable oil.

I was surprised however that gold did not move much higher. Eventually all fiat currency creation will push the price of gold higher but as we have seen with our own currency this cause and effect response is not reliable on the shorter term.

Still gold's rather lethargic response might be indicative of a market looking for a profit taking pull back considering recent gains.

The lowest premium government produced 1 ounce gold coin today is the popular Australian Kangaroo.

Silver closed up $0.17 at $18.34 still cheap relative to old highs but considerably off its recent lows. The lowest premium silver bullion product today would be the Johnson Mattney 100 oz silver bar at $0.75 over spot delivered.

Platinum closed up $7.00 at $1284.00 and palladium was up $5.00 at $773.00. Like I mentioned yesterday platinum is now trading under the price of gold and the only bullion 1 ounce coin produced by a world government is the Canadian Platinum Maple Leaf – other popular world mint coins have stopped production for the time being.

So with higher prices for gold across the board and activity moving higher in the Exchange Traded Funds why aren't the phones ringing off the hook on physical activity? The reason is simple – the higher activity just happened and now the precious metals are facing the dreaded Wall of Worry.

Actually this happens all the time in stocks but because the metals have generally traded lower over the longer term it has been awhile since anyone has considered this cautionary tale.

The proverbial Wall of Worry is created when prices rise dramatically on the short term and investors wonder if the price rise is the beginning of a bigger picture which will lead to more profits or some sort of short-term price trap which will cost them money. In other words they "worry" over the possibility of adding to their holdings.

If the market can climb over that Wall of Worry it is a true turnaround and worthy of additional money from the investor. If it can't – well, you know the answer.

But my point today is that gold has its usual advocates – real bullion dealers who believe the precious metals are cheap. And those who hang around - fake bullion dealers who use any excuse to sell overpriced junk described as the newest and latest thing.

Those that believe the Swiss Franc uncoupling from the euro opened the door and was a watershed event for gold. Those that believe that European Union and quantitative easing are the latest savior for those really interested in gold bullion.

Today you have a real mixed bag in the gold market – you will encounter everybody from legitimate dealers to quick money hustlers who sound and look good but are dangerous.

So for the short term ignore all the real or imagined stories and consider that Wall of Worry. If gold climbs over we are off to the races – if it does not especially now that we have crossed over the important $1300.00 mark – well you know that story too.

If you are interested in gold commentary there is a wealth of in-depth information on the net. Most casual readers are not that interested but the source for what the Chinese are doing is Koos Jansen (BullionStar.com – Singapore).

His latest Chinese Lunar Year Gold Buying at Full Steam: 61t Withdrawn from SGE Vaults in 1 Week – "As I mentioned last week , January is the time of the year for the Chinese to buy golden gifts for their love ones. And that is exactly what they are currently doing en masse, according to the latest data from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)."

But here is where the internet shines – in the process of reading Jansen I ran into something totally different – too bad I don't read Dutch.

Guilty Gold by Roel Janssen - Nearly half of the gold looted by the Nazis from the Dutch central bank during the Second World War remains to this day in Switzerland, a reminder of the Alpine nation's controversial role as a financial conduit for Hitler's regime. About 61,000kg of Dutch war gold, currently value at about €2bn, is believed to be still in Swiss possession.

During the Nazi occupation of the Netherlands, 145,650kg of monetary gold and gold coins that Dutch citizens were forced to hand over to the central bank were transported to the Reichsbank in Berlin. After the war, the Tripartite Gold Commission (TGC), set up in 1946 by the US, France and the UK to return gold stolen by Germany, handed back about 71,820kg of gold to the Netherlands – less than half of the total. In 1998, the TGC made its final share-out and was dissolved.

Looting of Dutch gold - The story of the looting of Dutch gold and how it ended up in Switzerland is told in my 'faction' thriller Fout Goud (Guilty Gold). The book, which is currently only published in Dutch, combines historical facts with a fictional plot.

The Reichsbank sold about 80% of the gold it stole from occupied countries to Switzerland to obtain convertible Swiss francs to pay for imports needed by Germany's war machine. Smaller amounts were sold to Sweden, Spain, Portugal and Turkey.

In December 1946, Switzerland and the US, acting on behalf of the TGC, signed the Washington Agreement. The Swiss, who denied any wrongdoing by buying gold from Germany during the war, agreed to hand over 52,000kg of gold to the commission for the 'economic recovery of Europe'. The Agreement gave Switzerland a waiver for any future claims on gold it had bought from Nazi Germany.

A few years later it became clear that Switzerland had bought at least 336,300kg of gold from Germany during the war. Of the Dutch gold that was transported to Berlin, about 122,000kg ended up in Switzerland.

When the Dutch demanded their gold back, the Swiss refused to discuss the claim, citing the Washington Agreement. Despite arduous diplomatic and legal efforts in the 1950s and 60s the Swiss were adamant: returning any more gold was out of the question.

When the TGC was dissolved at a conference in London, the Netherlands stated that it maintained its claim against Switzerland. Two years later, the Dutch government endorsed the conclusions of a national war-gold commission that further efforts to recover the gold were futile.

Neither Parliament nor Dutch society was told about the decision silently to shelve claims on the stolen war gold that remained in Swiss vaults.

In 1996, publications in the UK stirred up the question of Jewish gold and dormant Jewish bank accounts in Switzerland. In the end, Swiss banks were forced to repay $1.25bn to Jewish victims. The Swiss government added $500m to the settlement, though it denied any wrongdoing. The value of the Jewish gold was much smaller than the stolen monetary gold.

In my fictional retelling of the looted Dutch gold, the main protagonist inherits 15 gold coins from his grandmother. He decides to find out what happened to the gold during the war.

His search takes him to underground shelters and bunkers in Berlin and to the salt mine in Merkers, where the American Third Army discovered the remains of the Reichsbank's gold reserves in the final weeks of the war. The story ends with a spectacular attempt to recover a gold bar in Switzerland.

Fout Goud (Guilty Gold) was published in Dutch on February 20, 2014, and launched at the Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank.

This from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph) - Central bank prophet fears QE warfare Pushing World Financial System out of Control

The economic prophet who foresaw the Lehman crisis with uncanny accuracy is even more worried about the world's financial system going into 2015. Beggar-thy-neighbor devaluations are spreading to every region. All the major central banks are stoking asset bubbles deliberately to put off the day of reckoning. This time emerging markets have been drawn into the quagmire as well, corrupted by the leakage from quantitative easing (QE) in the West.

"We are in a world that is dangerously unanchored," said William White, the Swiss-based chairman of the OECD's Review Committee. "We're seeing true currency wars and everybody is doing it, and I have no idea where this is going to end."

Mr White is a former chief economist to the Bank for International Settlements – the bank of central banks – and currently an advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

He said the global elastic has been stretched even further than it was in 2008 on the eve of the Great Recession. The excesses have reached almost every corner of the globe, and combined public/private debt is 20pc of GDP higher today. "We are holding a tiger by the tail," he said.He warned that QE in Europe is doomed to failure at this late stage and may instead draw the region into deeper difficulties. "Sovereign bond yields haven't been so low since the 'Black Plague': how much more bang can you get for your buck?" he told The Telegraph before the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"QE is not going to help at all. Europe has far greater reliance than the US on small and medium-sized companies (SMEs) and they get their money from banks, not from the bond market," he said.

"Even after the stress tests the banks are still in 'hunkering down mode'. They are not lending to small firms for a variety of reasons. The interest rate differential is still going up," he said.

The warnings come just as the European Central Bank prepares a blitz of bond purchases at a crucial meeting on Thursday. Most ECB-watchers expect QE of around €500bn now that the eurozone is already in deflation. Even the Bundesbank is struggling to come with fresh reasons to oppose it.

The psychological potency of this largesse will depend on whether the ECB opts for shock-and-awe concentration or trickles out the stimulus slowly. It also depends on the exact mechanism used to conduct QE, a loose term at best.

ECB president Mario Draghi hopes that bond purchases will push money out into the broader economy through a "wealth effect", but critics fear this will be worse than useless if it leads to an asset bubble without gaining traction on the real economy. Classic moneratists say the ECB may end up spinning its wheels should it merely try to expand the money base.

Mr White said QE is a disguised form of competitive devaluation. "The Japanese are now doing it as well but nobody can complain because the US started it," he said.

"There is a significant risk that this is going to end badly because the Bank of Japan is funding 40pc of all government spending. This could end in high inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.

"The emerging markets got on the bandwagon by resisting upward pressure on their currencies and building up enormous foreign exchange reserves. The wrinkle this time is that corporations in these countries – especially in Asia and Latin America – have borrowed $6 trillion in US dollars, often through offshore centers. That is going to create a huge currency mismatch problem as US rates rise and the dollar goes back up."

Mr White's warnings are ominous. He acquired great authority in his long years at the BIS arguing that global central banks were falling into a trap by holding real rates too low in the 1990s, effectively stealing growth from the future through "intertemporal" effects.

He argues that this created a treacherous dynamic. The authorities kept having to push rates lower with the trough of each cycle, building up ever greater imbalances, in an ineluctable descent to the "zero bound", where monetary levers stop working properly.

Under his guidance, the BIS annual reports over the three years before the Lehman crisis were a rising crescendo of alarm calls at a time when other global watchdogs were asleep. His legendary report in June 2008 openly discussed whether the world was on the cusp of events that might prove as dangerous and intractable as the Great Depression, as indeed it was.

Mr White said central banks have been put in an invidious position, compelled to respond to a deep economic disorder that is beyond their power. The latest victim is the Swiss National Bank, which was effectively crushed last week by greater global forces as it tried to repel safe-haven flows into the franc. The SNB was damned whatever it tried to do. "The only choice they had was to take a blow to the left cheek, or to the right cheek," he said.

He deplores the rush to QE as an "unthinking fashion". Those who argue that the US and the UK are growing faster than Europe because they carried out QE early are confusing "correlation with causality". The Anglo-Saxon pioneers have yet to pay the price. "It ain't over until the fat lady sings. There are serious side-effects building up and we don't know what will happen when they try to reverse what they have done."

The painful irony is that central banks may have brought about exactly what they most feared by trying to keep growth buoyant at all costs, he argues, and not allowing productivity gains to drive down prices gently as occurred in episodes of the 19th century. "They have created so much debt that they may have turned a good deflation into a bad deflation after all."

The walk-in cash trade was busy most of the day with a good mix of buying and selling. The phones were mostly buyers and steady until the afternoon when everything stopped.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a " 4" for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 2) (Monday – closed) (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday – 3). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the "book".

Our "activity" is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

T hanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved or changed your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

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Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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