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Gold Continues to Wander between $1080.00 and $1100.00

Commentary for Tuesday, Aug 4, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $4.30 at $1086.90 on the Comex today in typically quiet trading – this past week gold has traded through an $8.80 spread top to bottom.

Granted we are drifting lower and most paper traders are looking for another near term test of support. The close today ($1086.90) looks typical of further testing to the downside but there was little follow through in the aftermarket and this close did not eclipse the July 20 th close of $1086.30. Still the paper market remains highly defensive – my bet is that long players have exited this market and remain sidelined. But keep in mind a good paper trader has no directional loyalty and can change sides at will.

While the mood of this gold market remains negative because of the upcoming interest rate hike, the close trading spreads might suggest that everyone is waiting for more information on which to make a trading decision. And momentum traders are also having a long lunch so it’s fair to say we remain in a “wait and see” position.

Considering the dollar action today I’m surprised gold held up as well as it did – the Dollar Index closed yesterday at 97.45 – ranged today from 97.21 through 97.99 and is trading at the higher end of this range (97.92).

There is a job’s report coming in this Friday which could push the price of gold lower if the number shows continued improvement. Also note that copper hit a 6 year low today – the decline in the price of many base metals also presents a negative picture for the precious metals.

Silver closed unchanged at $14.55 and the physical market remains active but not hurried.

Platinum closed down $7.00 at $960.00 and palladium was also down $7.00 at $595.00.

This reader’s question is typical these days as bullion premiums vary substantially. “I have not tracked platinum until recently. Are the current levels of buyers premium, and seller premium over spot typical? The current gold premium is more typical of what I have seen over several years. Your commentaries have discussed silver premiums as high and I agree. I like the gold/platinum ratio but am concerned that the Pt premium will decline even as spot moves up and I will not recover. Your thoughts please. Thank you.”

Unfortunately bullion premiums are really just a reflection of buyer demand and require a little of what pilots call “flying by the seat of your pants”. Deciding when to pay a substantial premium or when to pass and wait for a better deal takes a comparison of relative price and availability.

In other words if the premium on any bullion coin is higher than normal but the relative price (or discount from highs) is low you might want to pay the additional premium simply because waiting for a better deal might mean missing a good price range.

Recently however, market price recovery, especially in platinum bullion does not seem like a hot topic but this generally lower trend in prices will not last forever.

If you are concerned about “premium recovery” simply wait out the storm. With the generally negative press in the gold market and platinum prices trending lower you are not likely to miss the boat.

This strategy of course does not work well for those of us with little patience or those who insist on a particular product. In the case of the platinum bullion the US and Canadians are not producing platinum bullion coins, but this will change. Your only choice in the new market is the platinum Platypus or the PAMP platinum bar. The bar is about $25.00 cheaper but usually this is not enough of a difference to sway public demand – it is just a matter of preference.

To consider the US Platinum Eagle (if you could find them) at several hundred dollars over spot does not seem to me a good choice and the possibility of recovering such a high premium once the mint begins production is small.

In the end however keep the bigger picture in mind. Platinum bullion is trading for less than half of what it used to a few years ago – this is the big advantage of adding a few ounces to your stack now – even if you think premiums are high.

This from Neils Christensen (Kitco) - U.S. Mint Reports Whopping 469% YoY Increase In Gold Bullion Sales - The one bright spot for the precious metals market appears to be the physical market as the U.S. Mint reported a 469% increase in July coin sales, compared to last year.

According to the U.S. Mint’s sales data, 202,000 ounces of gold, representing a variety of denominations of American Eagle and Buffalo gold coins, were sold last month, compared to 35,500 ounce of gold sold in July 2014. In fact last month’s sales presented the strong pace for the year.

In total, the U.S. mint has sold 571,500 ounces of gold in the first seven months of this year, up 38% compared to same time period last year.

Commodity analysts from Barclays said in a note published Monday that gold’s recent price drop below $1,100 an ounce encouraged investors to purchase more bullion products.

“This level of retail interest was last seen in early 2013, which suggests this is a price-driven response as 2013 gold also dropped violently,” they said.

The mint also saw a rise in silver bullion sales compared to last year, selling 5.529 million coins in July, up 180% year-over-year. Although July sales were above average, unlike gold it didn’t present the peak for 2015. In January, the mint sold 5.530 million coins.

Total silver sales in the last seven months was 27.315 million coins, up 4.6% from 26.103 million coins sold last year in the same period.

The mint’s silver sales could have been higher but in mid-July it sold out of the popular American Eagle silver coins, being caught off guard by the increased demand after prices dropped below $15 an ounce. Sales of the silver coins, on an allocated basis, only resumed last week.

It is not just the mint that has seen unprecedented demand for bullion as prices significantly dropped last month. In his morning commentary, Peter Hug, global trading director for Kitco.com said that many bullion dealers have been struggling to obtain a supply of silver coins and small gold bars.

However, he added that he does not see this reemergence of physical bullion to help support prices as gold trades under $1,100 an ounce and silver under $15 an ounce.

“This demand is mitigating the wholesale liquidation of the precious metal complex by funds and liquidity needs from margin calls in other investment classes,” he said.

The walk in cash trade today was on the quiet side and so were the phones. We are beginning to see renewed gold bullion selling at these levels but no significant silver or platinum bullion liquidation.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 6” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 7) (last Thursday – 5) (last Friday – 5) (Monday – 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Advice for New Gold Investors

Investing in GoldThere’s an old Chinese proverb, “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” The message has less to do with agriculture and more to do with the fact that it’s never too late to achieve great things, so long as you stop second-guessing yourself and take action. This is especially true when it comes to investing in gold. If you’ve been dreaming about diversifying your investment portfolio with gold bullion bars and coins, these tips will give you the confidence to buy your first ounce of gold and continue on as a savvy gold investor.

Buy Gold When You Need It
First and foremost, it’s important to understand that you can’t approach gold the same way you would approach stock or real estate investments. The goal of precious metal investing is to provide long-term wealth insurance, not to make quick gains on the market as gold prices go up and down. That being said, the best time to buy gold is when you need it, not when the market dictates you should buy gold.

Stick With One-Ounce Bullion Coins
This is not a hard and fast rule, but rather a recommendation to help you maximize the profitability of your investments. Although gold bullion coins are issued in four denominations (one-ounce, half-ounce, one-quarter ounce, and one-tenth ounce), fractional coins carry higher premiums above spot prices than one-ounce gold coins. And while we’re on the subject of gold coins, avoid rare gold coins at first since the value (and cost) of numismatic coins is determined by additional factors other than precious metal content.

California Numismatic Investments can help you get started as a gold investor right now. In addition to our great national pricing on gold bullion coins and bars, our website is also full of resources such as investment guides, gold analyst articles, and gold prospectuses. Visit our website to browse our gold coins and bars for sale, or call us at (800) 225-7531 to speak directly with one of our gold dealers.

Gold Weaker on the Close - Bulls and Bears Look for Advantage

Commentary for Monday, Aug 3, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $4.50 at $1091.20 on the Comex today and became weaker on the close. This late activity does not look like just a choppy market because the weakness spilled over into the domestic aftermarket (down another $5.00).

If you consider that gold opened mildly lower today in domestic trading after uneventful trading overnight in both Hong Kong and London this pitch to the downside might spell lower prices when the domestic market opens Tuesday.

The Dollar Index moved higher in early trade today and then sold off – the range this morning between 97.16 and 97.58 – we are currently trading at 97.49 – I would call this choppy but the trade calls the dollar firm today and everyone is still waiting for that Fed interest rate hike.

This from Chris Gaffney (Everbank) – “The latest data from Bloomberg shows there is currently a 38% probability that the Fed will raise rates in September, down from a 48% probability prior to the release of Friday's data. The poor wage data sent the dollar lower, with the dollar index giving up all of the gains it had made during the week. Lately the dollar is trading off of rate expectations, as dollar bulls continue to bet on a US rate hike this year while dollar bears believe the data will force the Fed to hold rates near zero until sometime next year. The dollar's selloff on Friday was slowed by words from our own St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who was quoted in a Wall Street Journal report as saying the latest US growth data boosts the case for a hike in September. His comments which hit the markets mid-day helped the dollar pare losses late into Friday's trading.”

Obviously gold is still struggling technically but in the past 30 days the general downward move from the $1160.00 range has flattened out between $1080.00 and $1100.00. And gold has defended lower support at least twice since July 20 th.

The price of crude oil has been a negative for gold lately – in the past month we have moved from something around $52.00 a barrel for crude to $46.00 this morning – and possibly even lower prices are still on the table.

The Greek stock market opened for business today – down 30% recovering into somewhat stable trading cutting early losses by half. Gold showed no response which has been typical recently – the idea of gold being a safe haven is currently trumped by dollar strength.

I think that while the physical demand for the precious metals remains robust the paper trade is still looking for a break-down in the price of gold – perhaps testing recent lows. But keep in mind this see-saw price action lately gets attention (because everyone is looking for that break-down) but is really not a big test – to accomplish this gold would have to trade perhaps $50.00 lower than current levels.

The notion that China is continuing to struggle - both in growth and the recent trouble in its stock market also weighs on gold because of possible selling to cover stock losses. But this also is not as clear as it might seem – China GDP still being north of 6%.

This from Chris Gaffney (Everbank) – “The official gauge of Chinese manufacturing fell to a five-month low as reported over the weekend sending the Chinese stock market back into a tailspin. China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 50 for July, down slightly from the 50.2 reading in June. The data will be followed up with another private reading of manufacturing in China due out today, but the markets are already starting to speak of a 'hard landing' for China. We have heard this rhetoric before that the Chinese officials will be unable to keep the world's second largest economy from slipping off a cliff. But the naysayers have been wrong so far, and while the Chinese economy has certainly slowed it has not seen the kind of precipitous drop which many have predicted. Chinese GDP as reported by the IMF is predicted to be 6.8% in 2015 and to slow even more in 2016 to 6.3%. And while this is definitely a slowdown from the 9.8% average growth rate since the Chinese markets were opened up in 1978 it still is pretty impressive for an economy the size of China's.”

So further testing to the downside is a possibility – but the physical demand is the wild card. Finally with all these moving parts the price of gold still holds a relatively tight trading range ($25.00) – meaning the bulls and bears continue to look for short-term advantage.

Silver closed down $0.20 at $14.55. Same story – the physical market remains interested but because this lower trading range has persisted the public pulls back somewhat, surprised perhaps because the price of silver has not bounced higher (above $15.00) with all the physical action.

Platinum closed down $20.00 at $967.00 and palladium was off $8.00 at $602.00.

This from Clara Denina (Reuters) - Gold down on dollar after biggest monthly loss in two years - LONDON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - Gold edged lower on Monday, after falling by the most in two years in July, as the dollar steadied and investors monitored U.S. economic indicators for clues on the timing of a hike in U.S. interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,091.90 an ounce by 1347 GMT. The metal hit a low of $1,077 on July 24, its weakest in 5-1/2 years.

It lost almost 7 percent in July, its steepest monthly drop since June 2013, and fell for a sixth straight week last week, its longest retreat since 1999. U.S. gold for December delivery was down 0.4 percent at $1,091.20 an ounce.

Gold's rout deepened last month as the dollar strengthened after comments by the Federal Reserve signaled it was on course to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

"The dollar is back on the ascendant today, weighing on all commodity prices," Mitsubishi Corp analyst Jonathan Butler said.

"U.S. economic data is the main focus right now, culminating with the nonfarm payrolls number later this week."

The dollar was up 0.1 percent against a basket of leading currencies, cutting some gains after data showing U.S. consumer spending in June recorded its smallest gain in four months. Separately, the pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed in July.

Investors have been keeping a sharp eye on economic data as this could influence the timing of the first rate increase in nearly a decade.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has said it will hike rates only when it sees a sustained recovery in the economy. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday will be closely watched.

A rate hike, which could come as early as September, would put further pressure on non-interest yielding gold and increase the opportunity cost of holding it.

Hedge funds and money managers kept their first bearish stance in COMEX gold in at least a decade during the week ended July 28, suggesting the recent mass exodus from bullion was more than a knee-jerk reaction.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped to the lowest since September 2008 at 21.63 million ounces on Friday.

Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson, one of the world's most influential gold investors, said on Friday that the metal is now at an appropriate price level.

Paulson holds a 10 million share stake, now worth about $1 billion, in the SPDR Gold Trust fund.

Spot silver eased 0.5 percent to $14.69 an ounce. Spot platinum dropped 1.1 percent to $970.99 an ounce, after posting the biggest monthly fall in ten months at 8.7 percent in July. Palladium gained 1.7 percent to $619.25 an ounce.

The walk in cash trade today was active but in no rush - the phones were erratic - busy in the morning sometimes quiet in the afternoon – sometimes ringing off the hook. Note the trailing off of the Activity Scale since last Thursday.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 5” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 8) (last Wednesday – 7) (last Thursday – 5) (last Friday – 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Pitches Higher over Employment Data

Gold Pitches Higher over Employment Data

Commentary for Friday, July 31, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $7.60 on the Comex today at $1095.70 – so prices closed firm. But that was about all that was “firm” today this being the second day that the price of gold survived an initial onslaught of selling and the movement can only be described as erratic.

On the downwind leg of early trading gold touched $1079.00 – this drop was then met with short-covering and aggressive physical buying. Our shiny friend then moved higher – surging back to $1100.00 and finally settling on the close at $1095.70. I guarantee this was not a paper trading day of profit – either short or long and on the week gold was up a mild $9.00 – so you can’t exactly say things are steaming along.

The culprit here, creating this surprising turbulence in price is two-fold. The first and more subtle influence is created by the paper system itself. Traders are expecting lower prices and just like the bulls (if there are any left) the short players can’t understand why a consistent push to the downside is not breaking down support. It might, don’t get me wrong, but it has not as yet had the desired affect this week at least – so consider that gold may well be oversold at this point and due for a rally sometime next week.

The second and more tangible metric change was the deceleration in employment which pushed the dollar lower and supported higher gold prices into the weekend.

So it appears the erratic price movements in gold will continue despite everyone having an opinion about what the Federal Reserve will do next to insure everyone is happy.

The previous close on the Dollar Index was 97.49 and today’s range moves from 96.31 through 97.60 – we are now trading around 96.82 with a negative bias – so the weakness is clear.

Silver closed up $0.06 today at $14.75. Activity has slowed here – replaced by the usual steady grind of the physical buyer who believes silver at less than $15.00 is too cheap. There is also something going on with $1000 face 90% silver bags – between dealer spreads and availability is also erratic – most dealers have little or no inventory and still bid prices and spreads are large. Something is not right here but it is above my pay grade.

Platinum closed down $2.00 at $987.00 and palladium closed down $8.00 at $610.00.

Like I said yesterday the physical activity in the Platinum Group Metals is nothing to write home about with the across the counter crowd despite cheap prices. But there is a somewhat hidden counter trend that should be watched.

This from Allen Sykora (Kitco) - Commerzbank: Outflows for Gold ETFs but Inflows for PGM ETFs - Outflows from global gold exchange-traded funds continue while inflows are occurring in ETFs for platinum group metals, says Commerzbank. “The ongoing ETF outflows are continuing to weigh on the gold price,” the German bank says. “The gold ETFs tracked by Bloomberg recorded their 11th consecutive daily outflow yesterday. The situation for platinum and palladium is quite different; they saw ETF inflows of 19,000 and a good 38,000 ounces, respectively, yesterday. Holdings in platinum and palladium ETFs have been increased by 115,000 and 52,000 ounces, respectively, since the beginning of the month. Without these inflows, platinum and palladium prices would doubtless be significantly lower.”

This from Greg Robb (Bloomberg) - Sharp deceleration in employment costs gives Fed a reason to delay rate hike - One of the most closely watched measures of labor costs decelerated sharply in the second quarter, suggesting the Federal Reserve can be patient and allow the labor market more time to heal before hiking interest rates.

The wages and benefits that companies, governments and nonprofit institutions pay their employees rose a record-low 0.2% in the second quarter, according to the employment cost index released by the Labor Department on Friday. That was well below the 0.7% gain in the first quarter and came as a surprise to economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who had expected a 0.6% gain.

The slowdown comes after first-quarter data had suggested wage growth had picked up perceptibly from the stagnant trend of several years.

Sustained gains in the employment cost index would signal that workers would boost their spending, which could spur growth and more hiring. It could also signal that inflation would move higher, although this is a point of debate among economists.

Wages, which account for some 70% of employment costs, rose 0.2% in the second quarter after a 0.7% rise in the first quarter. Benefits rose 0.1% after a 0.6% gain in the first three months of the year.

Over the past 12 months, employment costs decelerated to a gain of 2.0%, down from a 2.6% rise in the first quarter. This is the lowest rate since the second quarter of last year.

The developments may raise some doubts among those on the Fed’s policy-making committee that the economy is strong enough to start raising interest rates.

Yields on 10-year Treasury’s TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.34% fell sharply after the data was released, as investors judged that a rate hike may not occur at the Fed’s next meeting in September.

The dollar DXY, -0.71% declined against the euro. Stock futures turned higher.

“Disappointing report? Yes. Despite a tighter labor market, and all of the stories about pay increases at various large firms, wage growth is not picking up meaningfully,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a research note.

The U.S. central bank would like to see employment costs closer to 3%, economists said.

An alternate measure of wages, the monthly average hourly earnings report, has been running at a 2% rate since the end of the recession.

The Fed said Wednesday it won’t start lifting rates until there is “some” more improvement in the labor market and it’s “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back to the Fed’s 2% target over the medium term.

Some economists expect wage gains to rise later this year. There is momentum building in some parts of the country for a $15 minimum wage.

Our Patented Employee Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 6 believe gold will be higher next week – 4 think gold will be lower and 1 believe it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 47 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 38 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 15 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – July 27 – July 31

The walk in cash trade today was slow and so were the phones – this too does not make much sense given the continued interest in the physical market.

I would have expected business to be roaring going into the weekend and it did not happen – perhaps this is caused by solar flares – just kidding folks.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 5” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 7) (Thursday – 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your weekend.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Closes Weaker in an Erratic Trading Pattern

Commentary for Thursday, July 30, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $4.60 today on the Comex at $1088.10 – so we appear married to this cross-traffic at least on the shorter term. Yesterday’s close was $1092.70; Tuesday’s close was $1096.30 – so in the last few days gold has traded within a $4.60 range.

This would normally be like watching the paint dry but traders and even the physical market are tense – waiting for some sort of follow through (one way or the other) after the FOMC announcement that the Fed would not raise interest rates for now but the door is open.

The dollar today was stronger – keeping gold on the defensive. The Dollar Index previous close was 97.17 and the range today was between 97.17 and 97.77 – as of this writing we are trending around 97.55 - and with good GDP numbers it figures that the Fed will push forward with that rate hike pushing the dollar even higher.

I think the precious metal trade remains negative – anyone claiming a positive attitude would be considered a perma-bull and definitely in the minority. Bullish bets on gold paper contracts have declined by 50% and gold ETF’s are moving lower. But the morning trading pattern was erratic – higher then lower so there is tension right under the surface even though the daily price spread was short.

Still the physical delivery market keeps banging away – the US Mint is now in back to full production and can’t make enough of the popular American Gold Eagle or Silver Eagle.

So whether you remain a believer or not one thing is sure – gold is not acting as a safe-haven choice for now and there remains a dichotomy between the paper and physical market.

Silver closed down $0.04 at $14.69. Physical action across the counter remains steady but things have cooled since the Federal Open Market Decision.

Platinum closed up $5.00 at $989.00 and palladium was higher by $4.00 at $618.00. The physical trade in this area has really slowed – this is probably caused by two factors: first the public just does not include the platinum group metals in their day to day thinking – this has been the case since the 1970’s. For some reason they embrace gold or silver bullion but not platinum or palladium or rhodium bullion – this is changing with internet knowledge spreading rapidly but old habits linger.

Second, there has not been a constant supply of new and therefore publicized PGM bullion products coming to market. The Perth Mint is producing the Platypus (1 oz) but the Canadians and Americans are not minting platinum bullion coins at the moment. If there was any big interest generated in either platinum or palladium they would easily be $500.00 or even a $1000.00 more per ounce than gold – but for the moment platinum is trading at a $99.00 discount.

LONDON, July 30 ( Reuters) - Gold fell 1 percent on Thursday to a near a 5-1/2-year low as the dollar rose after data showed the U.S. economy improved in the second quarter, supporting views the Federal Reserve would lift rates by year-end.

The U.S. Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate. First-quarter GDP, previously reported to have shrunk at a 0.2 percent pace, was revised up to show it rising at a 0.6 percent rate.

Spot gold dropped as much as 1.3 percent to a session low of $1,081.85 an ounce in earlier trade, not far from its cheapest since February 2010 at $1,077 hit after a selloff on July 20. It dropped 1.1 percent to $1,084.21 by 1337 GMT.

"$1,080 and $1,050 are critical technical support levels. I don't know if there are big stops below there but the market is nervous about a further bear raid and prices remain under pressure," bullion broker Sharps Pixley head Ross Norman said.

After a two-day meeting, Fed policymakers said the economy had overcome a first-quarter slowdown and was "expanding moderately". A Reuters poll showed the U.S. economy may have rebounded in the second quarter.

That buoyed the dollar, up 0.4 percent against a basket of leading currencies, making dollar-priced gold more costly for non-U.S. buyers.

U.S. gold for August delivery slipped 0.8 percent to $1,083.90 an ounce.

"The Fed yesterday gave a stronger hint of a sooner-rather-than-later rate hike and the dollar strengthened and that impacts all the commodities," Citigroup strategist David Wilson said.

"As the focus is back on the dollar and its strength, the trajectory for gold is down until a hike actually happens."

"We think that the Fed will adopt a gradual pace of tightening, we expect only one rate hike this year. And policy will continue to be conditioned on data," Mizuho Bank said in a note.

Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, were unchanged at 21.87 million ounces for a second day on Wednesday. That level is the lowest since September 2008.

So with all the talk of the expected FOMC rate hike, the recovering US economy, the robust stock market which should be expected with a zero interest rate environment is it any wonder that real gold buyers are sad?

Now let’s also consider that with all this negative news the technical price picture of gold is just awful, we have lost about $200.00 in value these past 12 months.

But there must be some reason you are still reading this missive. And for most people who want to own some physical metal that reason usually surrounds the notion of value. They want to buy gold or silver bullion but they don’t want to throw their money out the window.

Now let me introduce another completely different dynamic that the average American does not consider but which indirectly supports gold ownership. There is an entire different universe out there that actually considers gold or silver bullion real money. Granted a much smaller minority but one nonetheless that would rather have real metal in their hands than cash. And this contingent virtually never sells so there is at least one constant in the changing gold price dynamics.

With that in mind let’s look at the more optimistic view that the price of gold is settling into the lower range of this latest unwinding leg. Of course “settling” is a defensive word – people actually in the gold business always want to give themselves some wiggle room. But this rule always applies – avoid those who claim ultimate price knowledge – they will probably be selling aluminum siding in Florida next summer.

Looking at the 1 year price chart for gold it’s easy to see the technical picture looks like a bad movie. We have moved from just above $1300.00 to just below $1100.00 and in the process have tested $1150.00, surviving twice and breaking down this third time. Besides all the fundamental problems this price picture sets up a host of computer and momentum players just waiting to cash in all that short paper.

But like everything else relating to gold the “picture” is more complex. There is that pesky issue of too much fiat money still floating around and still being created out of thin air. Now this argument has been made so many times I’m even ashamed to bring it up once again. But the fact is there is a lot of currency still floating around.

At this point in time we all just need to take a deep breath and play the hand we have. The gold market, both the paper and physical market do not act as quickly as most believe – the daily headlines (the Chinese factor, the interest rate factor, the technical picture, the strength of the dollar) only provide a piece of the price puzzle. If they were sure indicators all the time the market would provide no opportunity for profit or loss.

Those who are very negative about gold (now in the majority) believe because we have broken down at $1150.00 we must continue to test lower price levels. Perhaps even into the $1000.00 range which was established in the summer of 2008. This process will continue until gold finds its footing the market has bottomed and further risk is virtually zero.

Those committed physical holders who are less negative and want to increase their holdings at these knock down prices are already doing so believing this entire monetary tent show will one day end in tears.

But at this particular junction let me add another dimension. Today more than 40% of our website viewers are “new” not returning. This metric will tell you that the well expressed notion that gold is “dead” is much overplayed. Granted gold is out of favor but there are a huge number of people who watch prices over the internet and watch very carefully. This “pool” of new viewers provides still untapped potential and yet is seldom mentioned in gold commentary.

For now, whether you are a “watcher” or “player” be content that the number of people who still have a big interest in the price of gold is growing. This metric alone should keep you reading and commenting as most of the countries in this world continue to print fiat money.

And gold bullion, in the end will do what is has always done – signal, loud and clear when government leaders are heading in the wrong financial direction.

The walk in cash trade today was much slower and and the phones have gone back to average – notice the drop in our Unscientific Activity Scale – we are down about 3 points from earlier in the week.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 5” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 8) (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 7). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

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Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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