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Gold Closes Firm Reflecting Friday's Aftermarket

Commentary for Monday, July 27, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $8.40 today on the Comex at $1094.70. It looks like gold is reacting to both an oversold condition and a weaker dollar as we begin a new trading week.

The result of the oversold condition can be seen as gold bounces off Friday’s close and moves higher in the after-market. Because these higher numbers happened after the Friday close they are seen in the Monday market – so today’s higher numbers were expected.

An oversold position in gold is not new these days but consider what happened last week. The price of gold gets slammed ($50.00) because of two separate and very large sales, the timing of which should be questioned. The larger of the two happened in the overnight market between last Sunday and Monday trading when the Japanese market was closed for a holiday.

So ask yourself why anyone would choose such thin markets to sell? It’s just common sense that smaller sales avoid panic and defensive bidding. So perhaps these two were orchestrated to take advantage of an already weak gold market.

It’s also important to watch the dollar during this transition to higher interest rates. A weaker dollar – usually supports higher gold prices. Consider then the Dollar Index.

Compare today’s previous close being 97.26 to the range (96.29 – 97.29) as well as its current value 96.42 and this is apparent. But a better picture is seen when looking at the weekly range – in the last 5 days of trading the Dollar Index has moved from above 98.00 to 96.42 – so there has been significant weakness – helping gold defend the latest assault in the $1080.00 range.

Silver closed up $0.12 at $14.62. Still the physical activity is strong – as the Silver Eagle 1 oz Monster Box dance continues consider something like the Perth Mint Spider 1 oz – limited mintage – great product – popular worldwide - $2.60 over spot – delivered.

Platinum closed up $8.00 at $990.00 and palladium was down $10.00 at $612.00.

We have reformatted the Gold Newsletter beginning with this addition so it’s easier to post your own comments on the content. We have tried this before and the techs told us “no problem”, well the process did not work as well as expected. Let’s hope this second approach is easier – this application can be fun but let’s keep our comments civil and constructive – except when it comes to the politicians (just kidding). Keep it light and entertaining – at least we can get a few laughs in the middle of this transitioning market.

This from MarketWatch (Myra P. Saefong and Sara Sjolin) - Gold trades near $1,100 as prices rebound, dollar slides – “Gold futures rebounded on Monday from their lowest level in more than five years, finding support from weakness in the U.S. dollar to trade near $1,100 an ounce, but analysts said prices haven’t likely hit bottom just yet.

The yellow metal was benefiting from haven demand as stocks mostly retreated world-wide, led by a major selloff in Chinese equities, but technical analysts attributed Monday’s rebound in gold to technical factors.

August gold GCQ5, +1.02% climbed $11.10, or 1%, to $1,096.60 an ounce on Comex, after tapping an intraday high of $1,104.40. Prices were staging a comeback from Friday’s settlement price of $1,085.50, which was the lowest level since February 2010.

September silver SIU5, +1.05% rose 12.7 cents, or 0.9%, to $14.615 an ounce.

Prices got a boost for both technical and fundamental reasons, according to Mike Armbruster, principal and co-founder at Altavest Worldwide Trading.

‘Any gold rally from here is likely to be a rally within the context of a bear market.’ Mike Armbruster, Altavest.

“Technically, gold is bouncing off of longer-term trendline support,” which is roughly at $1,085 - close to Friday’s settlement price, he said. “Technical indicators are in deep oversold territory and conditions are ripe for a short-covering rally.”

But “any gold rally from here is likely to be a rally within the context of a bear market,” said Armbruster. “We think the trend toward lower levels is likely to continue in the months ahead.”

Similarly, Ross Norman, chief executive officer at Sharps Pixley Ltd. in London, said momentum in the gold market is “still with the bears.” Prices haven't hit bottom yet, he said, and he expects them to “attack the $1,080 level, which is “midway between the all-time high at $1,922 and the 36-year low at $246.”

Still, given overall bearishness for gold, “we may indeed be nearing a bottom - as a contrarian, this represents an excellent buying opportunity,” said Norman.

The price climb Monday came as the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.87% slid against most major currencies, ahead of a closely watched Federal Reserve meeting later in the week that could determine the trading action in currencies and commodities in coming weeks. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates at a record low at the meeting, but expectations are rising that a rate hike could come before New Years.

Those expectations have recently driven the greenback higher, and in turn added pressure on dollar-denominated commodities that get more expensive for other currency holders. U.S. data released Monday didn’t offer much of an economic hint for the Fed’s next move. They showed that orders for durable goods jumped 3.4% in June, but U.S. business investment rose just modestly.”

This from Bloomberg - China’s Gold Buying from Hong Kong Drops to Lowest in a Year - China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong slumped to the lowest level in almost a year in a sign that demand in the world’s biggest consumer may be slowing.

Purchases less sales sank to 22.1 metric tons in June from 67.9 tons in May and 36.4 tons a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. That’s the smallest since July 2014.

Gold prices fell 1.5 percent last month as the U.S. Federal Reserve moved closer to raising borrowing costs for the first time since 2006. Higher rates cut the allure of bullion as the metal doesn’t pay interest or give returns like stocks and bonds. Swiss exports to China also sank in June, falling 23 percent from May. The start of the rout that wiped $4 trillion from Chinese shares may have hurt demand and buyers were probably also concerned about prospects for more price declines.

“China’s imports of gold are yet to respond to low prices,” Simona Gambarini, commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a e-mailed note on Monday. “We think investors are becoming increasingly worried about a more pronounced correction in China’s stock market and will return to gold to diversify their portfolios.”

Swiss Sales - Bullion plunged the most in two years on July 20, sliding to the lowest since 2010, after China’s central bank announced it had bought about 604 tons in the past six years, increasing its hoard to 1,658 tons, less than most analysts anticipated.

The mainland imported 47.9 tons from Hong Kong in June, including scrap, compared with 75.8 tons a month earlier, while exports climbed to 25.8 tons from 7.9 tons. Swiss shipments to China fell to 14 tons from 18.1 tons, according to the Swiss Federal Customs Administration.

Demand in China will reach 900 tons to 1,000 tons this year, Roland Wang, the country’s director at the World Gold Council, told reporters in Shanghai on June 24.

“Gold imports will continue to rise in the long-term as both the official and private sectors are adding to their holdings,” said Duan Shihua, a partner at Shanghai Leading Investment Management Co.

The walk in cash trade today was busy – the tension of either buying or selling has decreased somewhat – this market is now more orderly. The phones were also more civilized today – but at times very busy – sorry for the delay. There were a number of very large gold bullion sellers – something we have not seen lately.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is an “ 8” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 8) (last Wednesday – 7) (last Thursday – 7) (last Friday – 8). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Closes Lower but Friday's After-Market Reverses Direction

Commentary for Friday, July 24, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $3.20 at $1086.30 on the Comex today. But the usually quiet after-market surprises.

Gold showed some weakness in the London overnight market making new recent lows below $1080.00 but seemed to recover a bit into domestic trading – still off from yesterday’s close but somewhat firmer amid its continuing technical problems.

The Dollar Index is somewhat higher – yesterday’s close being 97.20 and the range this morning between 97.13 and 97.62 – we are currently trading at 97.29 – so we are off recent highs which will support gold prices on the short term – but everyone knows that the Fed interest rate will push the dollar higher and this is not good for gold in the short term.

The price of crude oil is also becoming a drag on the price of gold. This past week we have moved from above $51.00 a barrel to $48.33 as of this writing – this chart also looks technically weak and continued lower oil prices will insure subdued inflation numbers and be yet another reason paper traders want to remain short.

With a week of troubled reports and weaker prices I think most traders were looking for some sort of relief rally today but apparently they are still fearful of the breach to the downside we saw last Sunday and Monday so the close was uneventful ($1086.30). The bears are still in charge as the long paper trade is content sitting on the sidelines and welcoming the weekend.

Then out of the blue - Friday’s after-market in gold jumped higher by more than $10.00 challenging $1100.00. This was not a short-covering rally as the markets were closed but something happened, perhaps prompted by strong physical demand. This will sort itself out over the weekend and we will have more details but it clearly shows the price of gold remains volatile and still very much in the game.

Gold’s 5 closes this week (Mon – Fri) are also important. Remember this week gold has shouldered some particularly bad news (Fed rate increases – supposed trouble in China – a strong dollar) so most paper traders are short players and the press has everyone thinking about jumping out the window. But even with all this grief gold has moved from a high of $1105.70 to a low of $1086.30 – that amounts to a difference of $19.40. Not much for those claiming that the plague is just right around the corner.

Next week news will also be important for the price of gold. Perhaps new information as to what China is up to and another Federal Open Market Committee meeting will we watched carefully.

The usual question will begin on Tuesday and end on Wednesday after the markets are closed.

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates as expected or not? At this point I think they will delay – continuing to watch for more positive economic signs – this idea of being “date dependent” gives them a great deal of leeway.

This may be just what gold needs to get back on its feet.

I still think the gold and silver market is oversold – and today’s aftermarket and strong physical demand across the counter supports this notion. We have been able to sell everything we could buy and most large dealers are having trouble restocking.

One thing is sure in this still evolving process – next week will be interesting.

For those who asked the Gold Newsletter posting format has improved. You can now go directly to the site – read and post your comments after each missive. Have fun and some laughs in the process. Political fun is allowed and should always be respectful – this is after all America.

Silver closed down $0.19 at $14.50. This market remains hot and low premium bullion products are flying out of here at these levels.

Don’t get caught short when prices move lower – some hints. If you have tried to buy silver bullion on this latest test to the downside you have already discovered that product in some popular areas is woefully short. You could place an order for “future delivery” if the dealer will write the action but generally why subject yourself to the anxiety factor – and wait until September or even October for delivery?

Simply ask your dealer for alternative products which are relatively equal in premium. American Silver Eagles 1 oz is a good example – the US Mint stopped production and when they come back on line they will be on allocation – it will take time to fill backorders. Premiums are ridiculously high and trending higher, they may reach $4.00 if supply does not loosen up.

Ask yourself if having coins dated 2015 is an absolute necessity - they are all worth the same so why not ask your dealer if he has boxes of “back dates”. Most large dealers stock 25 to 50 boxes at any one time so you are off the races – no waiting.

And there are other choices of silver bullion which the dealer might discount just to make a customer happy. We have for example Silver Spiders and Red Tail Hawks and $1000 face 90% silver bags in stock. And silver Philharmonic and Canadian Monster Boxes in stock – Republic and RCM 100 oz silver bars in stock. So why not ask for low premium silver bullion substitutes? Believe me when production comes back on line the “high premium” syndrome always fades.

Platinum closed unchanged at $982.00 and palladium was up $5.00 at $622.00.

Our Patented Employee Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 5 believe gold will be higher next week – 4 think gold will be lower and 2 believe it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey– Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 35 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 49 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 16 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – July 20 – July 24

This from Barry Norman (FX Empire) - Gold Bears Say Sell - Gold Bulls Say Buy - The bears say one thing, while the bulls say about the opposite after Gold rebounded on Thursday, but the fact is plain and simple the prices of gold and silver had fallen so low and the US dollar was done, making investment in the metals was attractive. Gold rallied on the buying interests only to reverse on Friday morning as those same buyers sold their positions to book a quick profit. Gold gave back $13.80 in the Asian session to trade at 1080.40 and silver fell 148 points to 14.553. Platinum was also attractive on Thursday and followed gold’s pattern this morning to fall $3.90 to trade at 972.25.

Gold prices continued to slide to end lower on Thursday, dipping back below $1,100 an ounce as a steeper-than-forecast drop in US jobless claims helped the dollar recover from earlier lows. However, prices remained under pressure after this week’s plunge.

A fall in gold prices has boosted demand in India, the world’s second largest consumer, despite the summer months being a traditional quiet period, World Gold Council (WGC) said. It also said that fall in the gold prices are not universally perceived as “negative”. According to WGC, gold prices have fallen by 3.2 per cent in India, 3.6 per cent in China and 1.2 per cent in Turkey.

Gold prices in the global market had fallen to a five-year low amid growing expectations that the US Fed may raise interest rates later this year, eroding appeal of the precious metals.

According to WGC, “the specter of the much anticipated US rate rise has hung over the gold price for some time. And a slowdown in China, the world’s largest gold consumer, is clearly an issue many investors will be giving thought to. But this is a partial view.” Headwinds such as the strong dollar and an expectation of US rate rises are probably overstated. ”It would be surprising if expectations of a US rate rise were not already factored into the gold price. And despite the US dollar index rising by 12.5 per cent in 2014, the US dollar gold price was flat,” it said. The big question is what will happen when the Federal Reserve finally starts raising interest rates, as it signaled it will do later this year.

A rate hike will only strengthen the dollar, putting more pressure on gold. That’s a major reason why Goldman Sachs commodities Chief Jeffrey Currie warned this week that gold could dip below $1,000 an ounce for the first time since 2009. Others believe gold will bounce back. Gero said it’s due for at least a short-term bounce next week. Alderman thinks it could withstand a stronger dollar, as it has done for stretches in the past.

The Fed is signaling that it’s time to start normalizing monetary policy for the economy and the market. The Fed has been preparing America for the change by altering the wording it uses in its recent policy statements. In December, it removed the phrase that it would wait a “considerable time” before acting. In March, it went even further and took out the “patient” to suggest the rate hike timetable was speeding up. Now a rate hike is being decided on a “meeting by meeting” basis.

The walk in cash trade today was active but not as busy as earlier in the week. The phones were also active but not rushed – waiting in either case was at a minimum.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 7) (Thursday – 7). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your weekend.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Sees Traction in Early Trading but Moves Lower on the Close

Commentary for Thursday, July 23, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $2.20 at $1089.50 on the Comex today in what looks like a market intent upon testing recent lows.

I actually thought we would get a break after looking at the Hong Kong and London market trade overnight – for a short time they traded above $1100.00. This small enthusiasm settled down however into domestic trading which turned into choppy but at least not panicked trading. Gold held up fairly well considering but in the end sold off on the close.

Better than expected jobless claims was a negative for gold, perhaps further encouraging the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year – applicants applying for unemployment the lowest since 1973 according to MarketWatch.

The Dollar Index is relatively flat – previous close being 97.45 and today’s range being 96.89 through 97.51 – we are currently trading at 97.10 – so we are generally off recent highs which will support higher gold prices on the short term somewhat – but everyone knows that Fed interest rate will push the dollar higher and this is not good for gold in the short term – so this too is a negative for gold.

Technically gold is struggling so the short paper players are holding everyone at bay – but because of recent weakness I thought today would produce a much larger short-covering rally as they covered their short positions and booked profits.

Unfortunately this was not the case so expect further testing of the breach seen last Sunday in the overseas market.

I think it’s important to keep an eye on price swings – they are significant but not crushing especially when you consider all the negative gold fanfare. These past 14 days we have traded between a high of $1172.90 and today’s low of $1089.50. That amounts to a spread of $83.40 – watch this number carefully in assessment. We have been approaching the lower end of the big gold sell-off for years and so weakness also loses intensity and impact.

This testing to the downside does have a positive side however if gold manages to stay on its feet. Most savvy traders agree that the gold market is week but not that weak – in other words it will be relatively bullish if gold survives this latest test.

For those really interested in physical gold and silver ownership we are presented with another opportunity to average down. And make no mistake about it - the real physical market remains hot at these lower levels – we have been selling everything but the kitchen sink since Monday.

This early morning Coin World post is typical – “The United States Mint plans to resume sales to its authorized purchasers July 27 of American Eagle silver bullion coins, three weeks after sales were suspended so depleted inventory could be replenished. The resumption of sales will be on an allocation basis, according to U.S. Mint officials. Insatiable investment demand forced the July 7 suspension of silver American Eagle sales while the West Point Mint continued production. Sales went beyond the Mint's ability to produce the coins to meet demand.”

This from Chris Gaffney (EverBank World Markets) – “Here in the US we had a surprisingly strong piece of housing data released. Sales of previously owned US homes climbed to an eight year high in June, climbing 3.2% to 5.49 million. Another piece of data showed the median price of an existing home rose 6.5% from June of last year, another good piece of news for US investors who are looking to housing to help boost what is currently a lackluster recovery. The housing recovery may give the Fed more 'cover' to raise interest rates off of the near zero levels during the second half of the year.

This good piece of news for the housing sector helped the US dollar recover across the board, with Kiwi and the pound sterling the only currencies which looked to gain vs the greenback. The Pound Sterling was one of the best currencies vs. the US$ yesterday after minutes of the BOE last meeting suggested a rate increase is back in the cards. The minutes of the meeting held July 8th showed a 'number' of policymakers viewed the decision on the timing of a rate increase 'becoming more finely balanced'. The minutes showed that many of the members felt inflationary pressures were on the rise which could give additional motivation to move rates higher in the coming months.”

Silver closed down $0.04 at $14.68. Across the counter sales remain steady.

Platinum closed up $1.00 at $982.00 and palladium was off $9.00 at $617.00.

This from Nicholson and Harvey - Gold turns lower as U.S. data takes pressure off dollar - NEW YORK/LONDON, July 23 (Reuters) - Gold turned lower on Thursday, dipping back below $1,100 an ounce as a steeper-than-forecast drop in U.S. jobless claims helped the dollar recover from earlier lows, though prices remained under pressure after this week's plunge.

Gold posted its deepest one-day loss in nearly two years on Monday, pushing prices through key chart levels and setting it up for further weakness. Low prices tempted some buyers back to the market on Wednesday, but gains remained muted.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,089.34 an ounce at 2:53 p.m. EDT (1853 GMT), off a high of $1,105.60. U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled up 0.2 percent at $1,094.10.

"The markets are all focusing on a September rate hike, so assuming that is when it occurs, you have to think that gold is going to remain under downward pressure up until that point," Citi analyst David Wilson said.

Gold has been undermined this year by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, boosting the cost of holding non-yielding bullion and lifting the dollar.

"If you're thinking about the Federal Reserve hiking rates in September maybe December, in real terms that could be a larger impact than you may have thought," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy for TD Securities in Toronto, noting there is not enough inflation to attract buying of gold.

Technical analysts, who study past price patterns to estimate the future direction of trading, say once its current bounce from Monday's slump is over, the next target for gold below its Wednesday low near $1,087 an ounce is $1,044, its 2010 low.

"The bounce in gold is nothing but a technical trade, as most major momentum indicators are showing that the recent selloff is overdone," AvaTrade's chief market analyst Naeem Aslam said.

Investors continue to cut their exposure to gold. Holdings in the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, shrank for a fifth day on Wednesday to their lowest since 2008.

Some demand emerged for physical metal, however. A retreat in the dollar, which fell 0.5 percent against a currency basket, encouraged some buying in China overnight, dealers said, while weak gold prices spurred buying of bullion coins in the United States where Mint sales jumped to a 2013 high.”

This is our usual Thursday Chicago Mercantile Exchange report covering the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the “August” Gold contract: Thursday 7/16 (228,539) – Friday 7/17 (226,979) – Monday 7/20 (214,782) – Tuesday 7/21 (196,180) – Wednesday 7/22 (183,792). These numbers remain in the higher end of the range.

Ken Edwards will be out of the office this week so if you need something special ask either Harry or Alex.

The walk in cash trade today was steady and the phones were busy all day. Sorry for the wait on some products but there is a steady increase in availability of most products. Sometimes it just takes the marketplace a while to gear up – when the market is slow dealers and public become complacent about availability – when demand increases dramatically a good lesson to learn is that most of the precious metal markets are relatively thin when you consider possible demand.

Now take this one step further and consider what availability would be like if the public were really frightened about its financial prospects.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 8) (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8) (Wednesday – 7). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

A Brief Overview of the Eight-Piece Set of Pre-1933 Gold Coinage

Pre 1933 Gold CoinsIf you’re looking to bolster your gold portfolio, consider adding the eight-piece set of pre-1933 gold coins from California Numismatic Investments. This collection highlights the “golden era” of numismatics in America, when gold coins were still used for day-to-day transactions despite being highly artistic in finish and design. Considering how old these gold coins are, the fact that each coin in the set carries a rating of MS63 from the Professional Coin Grading Service (PCGS). The number of high-grade, pre-1933 gold coins is shrinking as collectors and investors snatch them up, so get your hands on these certified gold coins while you can.

In addition to this set, we also offer a wide selection of gold bullion bars and coins. Visit our website to see our current prices, or call us at (800) 225-7531 if you would like to speak with one of our professional gold dealers. We look forward to helping you achieve your precious metal investment goals.

Gold Continues to Test Lower Price Levels Established Monday

Commentary for Wednesday, July 22, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $9.90 at $1091.70 today on the Comex – continuing to re-test recent lows – so the bears are in charge. The technical damage created last Sunday has reasserted itself both on Monday and Tuesday but it’s important to note that the market bounced back above the important $1100.00 level on both days – closes being (Mon) $1105.70 and (Tues) $1101.60. But today the close failed this test closing at $1091.70 - this will certainly encourage the short-paper trade tomorrow even though some believe this sell-off is getting tired.

So gold continues to test support following this week’s pattern of lower prices after the large Asia sell off which began on the Shanghai exchange in overnight trading last Sunday.

This morning’s housing numbers were strong adding to the belief that the US economic recovery continues to gain strength – this of course reinforces the notion held that the Federal Reserve will indeed raise interest rates perhaps by September but certainly before year’s end.

This morning the Dollar Index also traded higher – yesterday’s close being 97.32 – the range this morning being 97.11 through 97.74 – we are now trading around 97.63 so at the higher end of the range.

And today’s ETF numbers for gold are worth a peek - All Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 7-15-15 was 51,158,128. That number this week 7-22-15 is 50,387,684 ounces so over the last week we dropped 770,444 ounces of gold.

With continued current weakness the technical picture belongs to the bears and further testing might be expected, like we said yesterday. Long term support going back to the summer of 2008 – 2009 should be seen between $1000.00 and $1050.00 if further downside testing continues.

Trading sentiment however might be changing in that some now consider the gold market to be oversold. If there are too many bears in the woods look for short term bounce back to higher levels. Physical demand at these current levels remains strong but the lines from yesterday are gone. We apologize for any delay and if the phones are busy – try an email to info@golddealer.com for a quick answer. Thanks.

This from Jan Harvey - Gold slides 1 pct to five-year low as investors pull back - LONDON, July 22 ( Reuters) – “Gold fell more than 1 percent to a five-year low on Wednesday as a bounce in the dollar fuelled downside momentum, with investors continuing to pull away from the metal after its dramatic slide earlier this week.

A looming rise in U.S. interest rates, the first in nearly a decade, has dented gold's investment appeal, encouraging more sellers in the market after Monday's 3 percent rout, its biggest one-day drop since September 2013.

Holdings in the world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, fell for a fourth day on Tuesday by another 4.8 tonnes, hitting their lowest since 2008. Its reserves have nearly halved from their 2012 peak.

Spot gold was down 1 percent at $1,090.70 an ounce at 1400 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery were down $14.50 an ounce at $1,089.00. Earlier, spot prices touched their lowest since March 2010 at $1,087.04 an ounce.

Gold's decline on Wednesday picked up momentum after the dollar moved into positive territory against a basket of currencies.

"We have a lot of pockets of weakness currently in the gold market, and that is what is feeding the bearish sentiment we see," Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.

"The money managers are net short and that is relatively rare," he said.

"The risk is increasing that you see more capitulation from holders of physically backed products. With prices below $1,100, more investors could get cold feet. Another washout from these products would certainly be a major negative."

Monday's selloff came on the back of huge volumes traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange after investors dumped more than $500 million of bullion in New York in four seconds during early Asian trading hours.

That sparked a slide through key chart levels, triggering stop-loss orders that added to momentum. From a technical perspective, gold remains under pressure.

"Our next price target is seen at $1,044, the 2010 low, followed by $1,006, the late 2009 high," technical analysts at ScotiaMocatta said in a note.

"Lower lows and lower highs keep this bearish price move in motion. Only a close back above $1,133 will stabilize the metal."

Physical demand has been sluggish despite this week's steep price drop. India is not rushing to pick up slack Chinese demand as would-be buyers wait for further price drops, with a wedding season lull and poor rains curbing appetite.”

The psychology of a negative market should be part of your longer term thinking. When gold or silver bullion move down in value the public is disappointed when selling because they may be losing money. This negative slant is only human nature but over time adds an interesting dynamic to gold’s momentum pricing. When the news is negative (like now) the expectation is that gold will never regain is status as a safe-haven or inflation investment. This is key to understanding market bottoms – when sentiment is almost universally negative it’s time to consider an alternative outcome.

Actually the same thing happens when markets are completely positive – the public will pay almost any premium in a rising market and be happy with the outcome because their expectation is of a positive nature. The next time virtually all investment services claim gold or silver bullion is a “can’t lose” bet consider lightening your position.

Finally an observation – I have been in the bullion business for more than 35 years professionally and have never seen one commentator who could pick the top or bottom of the market. This is the nature of trading metals – no one, not even the rich and famous has this Midas sense. And beware of those who claim such supernatural powers – they are in fact just charlatans who might do well in politics.

Silver closed down $0.09 at $9.81. This is the first day I have seen in more than a week that the physical silver trade has calmed down. There were the usual smaller orders but mid-size and larger orders were muted today – questions about availability and such but also some tire kicking.

Platinum closed up $2.00 at $981.00 and palladium was unchanged at $626.00.

This is our usual ETF Wednesday information - All Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 7-15-15 was 51,158,128. That number this week 7-22-15 is 50,387,684 ounces so over the last week we dropped 770,444 ounces of gold.

The all-time record high for all gold ETF's was 85,112,855 ounces in 2013. The record high for Gold ETF's in 2015 is 53,901,867 and the record low for 2015 is 50,387,684.

All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 7-15-15 was 622,431,253. That number this week 7-22-15 is 622,538,626 ounces so over the last week we gained 107,373 ounces of silver.

All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 7-15-15 was 2,619,091 ounces. That number this week 7-22-15 is 2,612,661 ounces so over the last week we dropped 6,430 ounces of platinum.

All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 7-15-15 was 2,978,010 ounces. That number this week 7-22-15 is 2,958,296 ounces so over the last week we dropped 19,714 ounces of palladium.

This from Jill Malandrino - NEW YORK ( TheStreet) - Gold Bear Says China's Big Sale May Be a Buying Opportunity - With global demand for gold remaining weak, the precious metal is continuing to trade down through key technical levels after China unloaded a large position over the weekend. On Sunday night, gold moved lower by $50 to below $1,100 an ounce in just one minute as a 8,000-lot (five ton) sell order came onto the market all at once.

Eric Zuccarelli, an independent metals trader on the NYMEX trading floor, said the consolidation around the $1,100 level does not bode well for gold from a technical perspective. The momentum to the downside started last Friday when gold broke down below $1,143, settling down around $15 lower. Zuccarelli pointed to three key catalysts that had put the nail in the coffin of the gold bull: the firming up of a Greek debt deal, the Iranian nuclear deal, which should lead to an easing of sanctions, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments on Friday suggesting that an interest rate hike may come in September.

Since that huge influx of gold from China (the equivalent of a fifth of the volume traded in an average day) was a market order placed in the middle of the night when volume is thin, gold took a dramatic move downward. Zuccarelli thinks that result could have been intentional, and noted that Japanese markets were closed on Monday. Chinese demand for metals at is seasonally slow at this time of year; it will ramp up again in the fourth quarter, but in the meantime, there's a significant build in the London Metal Exchange warehouses, canceled warrants and an oversupply of available material.

Just as crude oil prices are under pressure due to a supply glut, so are gold prices. But Zuccarelli, who has been a gold bear for quite some time, says now may be an interesting time to go bottom-fishing in gold and copper, ahead of that anticipated pick-up in Chinese demand a few months from now. He also feels the bearish trade is getting a bit overcrowded.

Ken Edwards will be out of the office this week so if you need something special ask either Harry or Alex.

The walk in cash trade today was active most of the day but not overwhelming. The phones were busy as usual and began to settle down early in the day.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 7” for Wednesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Thursday – 8) (last Friday – 8) (Monday – 8) (Tuesday – 8). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

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