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    Gold Sees a Soft Technical Rebound

    Last updated 11 hours ago

    Commentary for Tuesday, Aug 26, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $6.50 at $1283.80 in what looks like a simple technical rebound. Traders may be covering short positions and taking a profit but this does not look like bargain hunting to me. Gold is coming off a $26.00 dollar loss last week so some squaring of the books is expected.

    The world situation remains liquid in that support for gold comes in form of the Gaza and Ukraine misery. The public has placed this trouble on the back burner but talk from the White House now centers on the ISIS treat – and jihad talk always frightens even if it is sometimes misplaced.

    With Consumer Confidence up to 92.4 from 90.9 things look brighter - higher stocks, a strong dollar and improving mental attitude among Americans caps gold in the short term.

    And the summer remains with us and this usually means that business is subdued. Actually this summer is pretty typical of summers in general relative to the coin business. Summer when the market was hot does not count because everyone was busy.

    So for now expect more of the same until the kids go back to school.

    Silver closed up $0.04 at $19.37 - some smaller action today but virtually no big buyers or sellers.

    Platinum was up $1.00 at $1421.00 and palladium was down $1.00 at $888.00. Rhodium was down $25.00 at $1350.00.

    We should sell a great deal of palladium 1 oz bars today because of the closing number ($888.00). The number 8 represents good luck to the Chinese – really – and the more 8’s the more luck. You would be surprised at what some investors do before buying or selling metal.

    We have a very large gold bullion player who has done business with us for years who will not make a move before first checking the stars. That’s right astrology is big for some – and don’t laugh this individual is worth a ton so something is working.

    Keep an eye on Russia if you are thinking about platinum, palladium or rhodium. Russian sanctions have been driving the palladium market – the Russians will sandbag this market in a minute if sanctions fall too close to home.

    The dollar is strong relative to the euro – this hinders gold. But keep in mind that ECB President Draghi is amazing – all he had to do is talk about quantitative easing and Europe settled down. This does not mean the EU is out of the woods – they still have unsustainable debt problems and they could still develop a bond buying program like the US. But the EU is complicated with some 28 member countries, not all of which have the same goals.      

    You would think that with all the financial peril around these days someone would have learned a thing or two about leveraged credit - especially since the 2008 real estate blowup and subsequent meltdown in Wall Street. I am not saying the world is coming to an end but at least temper some of the recently found exuberance in stocks with a small offsetting bet in the gold bullion market. But I guess in the capitalistic world – regardless of government edict – financial boys will be boys and sooner or later the devil will appear.  

    I got this from reading Chuck Butler (Everbank World Markets) - This is When the US Gov’t Goes Broke (Bonner & Partners) – Bill Bonner seems like a practical guy and funny too.

    Dear Diary,

    First, we check in with the markets.

    What’s new?

    Not much. The Dow crossed the 17,000 mark yesterday.

    Janet Yellen is supposed to address the world today from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It is hard to imagine that she will say anything surprising… or even meaningful. Commentators all over the planet are waiting to analyze each word… hoping for a hint of what is coming.

    They want to know when we will be leaving this wacky world of price fixing by central banks. They want to know when we will get back to more normal interest rates and a more neutral monetary policy.

    We think we have the answer already: Only when we have no other choice.

    The world’s largest economy, and its capital markets, depend on cheap credit. Take it away, and asset prices will collapse…and the economy will go into a recession/depression.

    Yellen can’t allow that. It goes against all her training, her convictions, and her most treasured delusions. She will fight the inevitable downturn with more liquidity and more free credit… until the whole sha-bang blows up.

    Then, and only then, will things go back to normal.

    The walk-in cash trade was less than average but steady. The phones were about average for the last week even though the activity level is not bad (4).   

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “4” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 3) (last Wed – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 2). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Where to Store Your Gold Coin Investment

    Last updated 16 hours ago

    Gold coins are an excellent investment. Not only do gold prices continue to rise, but bullion gold coins are immediately liquid and easy to buy or sell. If you are investing in gold coins for the first time, you are probably wondering how to keep your new coins safe. You have a few options when it comes to gold coin storage, and the ultimate decision as to which one is right for you will depend largely on the value of your collection. Here are the best options for storing your gold coins.

    Residential Safe
    If you only have a few coins in your collection, your safe will serve as adequate storage. If your safe is not temperature controlled, purchase a dehumidifier and place it inside the safe to keep your gold coins from tarnishing or rusting because of excess moisture. For added protection, keep your coins in an air-tight bag or sealable container to keep moisture at bay.

    Safety Deposit Box
    The next level of secured coin storage is a safety deposit box at your bank or credit union. Because you can’t control the humidity inside the bank’s vault, store your gold coins in an air-tight, waterproof container. You should also keep a pair of gloves with the coins in case you or someone else needs to handle them, as oil and dirt on the hands can cause gold coins to tarnish.

    Independent Precious Metal Storage
    Whether you have multiple gold coins or a single coin, a valuable coin collection is best protected at a Comex-approved precious metal storage facility. The CNT Depository, for example, is insured by Lloyds of London and features an ideal indoor environment for storing gold coins and other valuable precious metals.

    To get started on your new gold coin collection, contact California Numismatic Investments, the nation’s largest precious metal dealer. We can help you buy and sell gold coins, and we also offer unmatched precious metal storage security at affordable prices. Call us toll free at (888) 612-2679 to speak with one of our gold coin dealers about your investment today.

    Gold Remains Very Quiet

    Last updated 1 day 11 hours ago

    Commentary for Monday, Aug 25, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $1.30 today at $1277.30 in a market which showed a $4.00 trading range from overnight Hong Kong/London through domestic trading close. A negative for gold today was that the Chinese only imported 22 tons of gold from Hong Kong down from last month’s 40 ton figure.

    Consider however that while Hong Kong is still China’s big dog when it comes to gold imports they are up to something in Singapore and real gold import numbers are still a state secret. Chinese banks are now experimenting with direct importation into the Shanghai free trade zone so numbers will never be really transparent.

    The plus and minus for gold remains a tough call and while the bears are now in charge two forces still rule the short term direction. First, the minus for gold – the continued tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve remains a drag on the market. But like everything related in the physical gold market this is not money in the bank. Why? Because most believe this will eventually push interest rates higher and many believe the labor and real estate market can’t stand the pressure. Second, the plus for gold relates to safe-haven buying because of the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts. These are endemic of long standing problems and neither has a ready solution.

    Also consider the problems in Europe – these too are endemic with no easy solutions. ECB President Mario Draghi has been stellar at promising to do anything necessary to keep things moving but he still has not come up with the key to unlocking Europe’s lack of economic growth.

    It is self-evident that gold is weaker and a negative bias is in place, but the picture becomes blurred if commentary in the physical market gets too negative. At the lower end of current trading range even gold pessimists don’t want to be too short. Over the last year gold has dropped $120.00 or about 9% which is certainly not an optimistic picture but during that time we have had 2 attempts at breaking above $1350.00. Both were caused by geopolitical problems and these problems have not been solved – so while not intractable neither is going away.

    This of course is a negative argument – but it does keep the short players honest. That is why I remain convinced that for the short term gold prices will remain capped but the downside is also limited. So even as the Federal Reserve winds down quantitative easing – gold’s negative bias might just flatten out especially in the shorter term. This will place gold in another holding pattern waiting for inflation or the next round of safe-haven buying. And in the meantime remember that lack luster buying from both India and China will not last forever and world Central Banks will no doubt continue adding to their holdings – a consistent trend in these times of massive currency expansion.

    Everyone interested in the real ownership of gold bullion should know about GATA (Gold Ant-Trust Action Committee – www.gata.org). These are the folks that believe the price of gold has been manipulated and present a challenging argument with some of the best known gold commentators in the business. The following was posted on their website – an event which happens each year and always promises lively debate - The New Orleans Investment Conference. If New Orleans is not on your agenda I believe much of the discussions will be taped and offered for sale after the event.   

    Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

    As always unafraid of controversy, the New Orleans Investment Conference in October will feature a debate on whether central banks manipulate the gold market, with your secretary/treasurer arguing in the affirmative and Casey Research founder Doug Casey arguing in the negative.

    The debate will be moderated by money manager, financial commentator, and fellow conference speaker Adrian Day.

    Casey is an investor and author who has appeared on hundreds of television and radio programs. His company, Casey Research, publishes newsletters and operates Internet sites. Its flagship publication is the newsletter Conversations with Casey.

    Casey, his biography says, "has visited more than 175 countries, most of them several times, and lived in 10. His main sport is polo but he also has been active in skydiving, martial arts, scuba, auto racing, and competitive shooting."

    Your secretary/treasurer is a high school graduate who played softball occasionally until he got old but still dresses himself.

    The New Orleans conference is always great fun in a fascinating city, and this year's conference will include a presentation by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who has agreed to answer questions from the audience, including questions about gold. Also speaking will be GATA Chairman Bill Murphy. So the conference is sure to be of great interest to those who follow GATA's work.

    The conference will be held from Wednesday through Saturday, October 22 to 25, at the beautiful Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel on the city's famous Riverwalk, just a few blocks from historic Jackson Square, the New Orleans Cathedral, and the French Quarter.

    CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
    Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

    This from David Stockman (ContraCorner.com) – The Italian Job: How Borrowing and Printing Lead to an Economic Dead End - “So why does this abysmally failed and dangerous experiment continue unabated—as Yellen will undoubtedly confirm at Jackson Hole?  Self-evidently, it is irresistibly convenient to both Wall Street and Washington.

    The former gorges on a massive diet of carry trade gambling windfalls thanks to ZIRP and the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen “put”; and the latter gets a fiscal get-out-of-jail-free card owing to the Fed’s massive repression of interest rates. Indeed, with the public debt now topping $17.7 trillion, the implicit (and fraudulent) debt service relief from current ultra-low interest rates amounts to upwards of $500 billion per year.

    Stated differently, where there should be extreme caution on Wall Street, there is actually irrational exuberance beyond Alan Greenspan’s wildest imagination back in December 1996. And where there should be fiscal panic in Washington owing to prospective red ink of another $15 trillion over the next decade (under “un-rosy scenario”), there is unmitigated and universal complacency.

    The evil of monetary central planning, of course, is exactly what is unfolding: it drastically distorts pricing signals and thereby sows the seeds of eventual financial correction shocks and the consequent economic disorder. But there is something else, and it’s worse. Namely, the addiction to money printing and artificial debt fueled stimulus has become so deeply entrenched in the Wall Street-Washington corridor that the mainstream narrative has lost any semblance of historical perspective and realistic appreciation of the dead-end path on which the system is now embarked.

    The monumental extent of monetary expansion and debt accretion since the turn of the 21st Century, for example, goes unrecognized, and is assumed to be merely a permanent and sustainable feature of the financial landscape. And that blindness might even be understandable had it been accompanied by an unusual surge of prosperity of the “party now, pay later” variety.  In fact, however, the core metrics of prosperity —— real GDP growth, breadwinner employment, investment in productive assets and real household incomes—-have all gone in the opposite direction, having fallen drastically below all historical norms.

    The contrasts below are dispositive. Real GDP growth during the last 14 years has averaged only 1.8%—-barely half the average rate during the prior 50 years. Likewise, breadwinner jobs are still 5% below their turn of the century level; real net investment in plant and equipment is 20% below its late 1990s levels; and real median household income is down by 5%.”

    Now before you say here we go again – well – here we go again. All the ingredients for the next financial “dog and pony” show are in the stew. Everyone knows it but the headlines trumpet economic success albeit this time around they are cloaking the results with more than typical “we still have work to do”.

    If the above is interesting enough to make the case that gold bullion under your pillow is a good idea you should also consider David Stockman’s bestseller - The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America – (Amazon) an absolute must read if you are worried about your financial future.

    The Great Deformation is a searing look at Washington’s craven response to the recent myriad of financial crises and fiscal cliffs. It counters conventional wisdom with an eighty-year revisionist history of how the American state—especially the Federal Reserve—has fallen prey to the politics of crony capitalism and the ideologies of fiscal stimulus, monetary central planning, and financial bailouts. These forces have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America’s private enterprise foundation to morph into a speculative casino that swindles the masses and enriches the few.

    Defying right- and left-wing boxes, David Stockman provides a catalogue of corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. The former includes Franklin Roosevelt, who fathered crony capitalism; Richard Nixon, who destroyed national financial discipline and the Bretton Woods gold-backed dollar; Fed chairmen Greenspan and Bernanke, who fostered our present scourge of bubble finance and addiction to debt and speculation; George W. Bush, who repudiated fiscal rectitude and ballooned the warfare state via senseless wars; and Barack Obama, who revived failed Keynesian “borrow and spend” policies that have driven the national debt to perilous heights. By contrast, the book also traces a parade of statesmen who championed balanced budgets and financial market discipline including Carter Glass, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Simon, Paul Volcker, Bill Clinton, and Sheila Bair.

    Stockman’s analysis skewers Keynesian spenders and GOP tax-cutters alike, showing how they converged to bloat the welfare state, perpetuate the military-industrial complex, and deplete the revenue base—even as the Fed’s massive money printing allowed politicians to enjoy “deficits without tears.” But these policies have also fueled new financial bubbles and favored Wall Street with cheap money and rigged stock and bond markets, while crushing Main Street savers and punishing family budgets with soaring food and energy costs. The Great Deformation explains how we got here and why these warped, crony capitalist policies are an epochal threat to free market prosperity and American political democracy.”

    The walk-in cash trade was at times very busy and at times very quiet – one thing is sure – there was not much in the way of anxiety one way or the other which pretty much describes overnight and domestic trading. The phone trade was steady but large buyers and selling are absent. 

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “2” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 3) (last Wed – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 3). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Gold Only Mildly Interested in the Russian Incursion or Yellen's Comments

    Last updated 4 days ago

    Commentary for Friday, Aug 22, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $4.90 today at $1278.60 so the Russian “invasion” or Fed Chair Yellen’s comments failed to really move the gold needle – an unexpected reaction really – most thought either one of these events would move gold much higher by the end of the trading day.

    But this was not the case – the Russian threat created confusion – nothing more - and the Fed threat of “interest rates will go higher” was discounted because of our stymied recovery.

    Considering the strong dollar 82.54 on the Dollar Index - we are near 11 month highs against the euro – gold has held up pretty well but not a stellar performance considering we are moving into the weekend and the geopolitical situation is very fluid.

    Gold was basically flat overnight in Hong Kong and London – weakened slightly on early Yellen comments – and slept through the Russian invasion. This might pose an interesting “tired” scenario in the physical trade:  real enthusiasm is lacking as many European traders are on vacation and because gold is trading at the lower end of its current range those interested in selling have already taken action.

    This does not change the reality - gold is weak psychologically - but there may be less downside than you might imagine because of this contrarian notion. Also consider the short trade may be either tired – satisfied with recent profit – or simply scared of short positions.

    The Russian move into Ukraine today may not have produced any big “pop” in the price of gold but it did get everyone’s attention. This move introduces uncertainty onto the trading floor not because anyone believes this is the prelude to war in Europe – but because no one can figure out what Putin is up to considering the world was ready to give him Crimea to go away. At any rate this entire surprise is not enough to push the metals higher in the short term but the short contingent is finished for now.

    Let me also comment that the “shallow” downside in gold is supported by historical premiums. When market sentiment is negative the physical market dries up overnight but there is always a market. And even though the action seems “dead” (a trade euphemism) – a close look at premiums will reveal something often overlooked by the public: The “premium” or amount charged over spot for commonly traded bullion products like the American Gold Eagle - between large commercial sellers or buyers remains virtually constant. The US Mint has produced millions of these coins and you would think that when things are slow (like now) the premium would adjust lower pushed by the supply and demand equation.

    Silver closed down $0.03 at $19.36. This from Chuck Butler (Everbank) - Well, Ed Steer says in his morning letter today that there could very well be an industrial shortage in silver. In fact, Ed quotes Ted Butler, (no relation) the silver guru, so let's listen in: "It's hard to see how intense investment buying wouldn't trip off industrial user attempted inventory stockpiling, or vice versa, and it doesn't matter which comes first." Interesting don't you think?

    So just what will it take for the physical silver market to develop some pop? The biggest thing silver has going for it is not shortages – this kind of talk just does not have legs today. And it’s not any developing chart pattern which might turn the technical freaks bullish. Silver’s long term technical chart looks like it needs a vacation. And it’s not continued talk about price manipulation – that story too is getting tiresome.

    There are three big reasons which are virtually never talked about in silver today but should be the most logical postulate for higher prices.

    The first reason is simply that physical silver investment is not widely practiced. This might seem funny to you the reader because you are interested in the subject – but most people live their lives nicely without considering silver investment. In fact if there was ever widespread interest in silver the prices would go through the roof because there is not enough to make everyone happy.

    The second reason is the massive and ongoing publicity provided by all the world mints - pictures, publicity and new tooling (expensive) for an endless array of new products – virtually all available to the new consumer cheap.

    The third reason is silver’s scalability – not everyone can afford gold but virtually anyone can put away a few ounces of silver.

    I am not a big fan of the “silver will soon be $100.00 an ounce” argument. I am also skeptical of the notion that somehow silver will be reintroduced into the money supply and act as real legal tender replacing the clad coinage of today.

    I think the fate of silver will be much like it has always been – a slow and sometimes torturous grind to the upside – with any number of “fits and starts”.

    I can’t tell you how many customers sold their core silver position at $10.00 claiming it was finished – only to face agonizing reappraisal. Today silver is twice that price and at some time in the future it will be twice what it now fetches. But in the meantime learn to develop a great deal of patience or look elsewhere.

    Platinum closed up $1.00 at $1420.00 and palladium was also higher by $7.00 at $887.00. Again my favorite PGM – rhodium - continues to get hammered down $40.00 at $1375.00.   

      Precious Metal Closes for this week – Aug 18 through Aug 22 – 2014

                Gold                Silver              Platinum         Palladium

    Mon    $1297.70         $19.60             $1444.00         $894.00

    Tues    $1295.10         $19.38             $1438.00         $879.00

    Wed    $1293.50         $19.47             $1428.00         $868.00

    Thurs  $1297.70         $19.60             $1444.00         $894.00

    Fri       $1278.60         $19.36             $1420.00         $887.00

    So which way is gold going next week? This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 8 believe gold will be higher next week – 3 think gold will be lower and 2 believe it will be unchanged.

    To this we are added a real survey on what our customers think about the gold market next week.

    Like the employees they were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 customers – unscientific yes but worth considering because these people actually took action: 45 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 37 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 18 think prices will remain the same.

    This from Fortune (Laura Lorenzetti) – Fed Chair Yellen says the job market “has yet to fully recover”. Yellen discusses the job market and the ongoing role of Fed policy at Jackson Hole gathering. There’s no simple recipe for success, especially when it comes to getting the economy back on track, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., kicked off Friday with a talk from Yellen about the job market and the status of the U.S. economy.

    Her speech offered very little about the direction of monetary policy, as some had hoped. Many investors expect the Fed to begin raising interest rates next year, though Yellen’s remarks question the timing of rate hikes given the uncertainty of improvements in the labor market.

    Yellen called out the “considerable progress” the economy has made since the end of the Great Recession. More jobs have been added during the recovery than initially lost in the downturn, the unemployment rate has fallen to 6.2% from a high of 10% in 2009 and job gains this year have averaged 230,000 per month.

    “These developments are encouraging,” Yellen said. “But it speaks to the depth of the damage that, five years after the end of the recession, the labor market has yet to fully recover.”

    She noted that the Fed is getting closer to its goals for the U.S. economic recovery, but there is still a ways to go as the jobless rate overstates the progress.

    Figuring out how much labor “slack” still lingers in the economy is difficult. The Fed is looking beyond the simple unemployment rate to consider the labor force participation rate, the extent of part-time employment and the pace of hires and quits.

    Previously, the Fed said it would keep interest rates near zero while unemployment remains above 6.5%. As unemployment hovers below that threshold, Yellen said the Fed will take into account a more holistic version of the labor market as it considers its future course of action and works to meet the agency’s dual mandate of maximum employment and low inflation.

    Yellen’s comments reflect on the conference’s theme of labor market dynamics, which she considers “central to the conduct of monetary policy.”

    Later Friday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to speak at the Jackson Hole conference.

    Neither the walk-in cash trade nor national phones sales were the least bit affected by either the Russian/Ukraine problem or any of Yellen’s comments - we are still trading in subdued – summer conditions. The public remains interested but not overly concerned with either cheap silver bullion prices or discounted gold “safe-haven” buying. I think things could change next week if the Russian “threat” develops or if there is continued escalation in Gaza.

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “3” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 3) (Tuesday – 3) (Wed – 4) (Thursday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Gold Lower - Dollar Stronger - Good Housing and Job Numbers

    Last updated 5 days ago

    Commentary for Thursday, Aug 21, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $19.70 at $1273.70 reacting to better economic data and a stronger dollar. Compare the close ($1273.70) with the 50 Day Moving Average ($1306.00) – the 100 Day Moving Average ($1296.00) and the 200 Day Moving Average ($1284.00) and the technical picture is not encouraging.

    Recent gold pricing has suggested a rather flat movement with some support above $1300.00 – this represented safe-haven buying over Ukraine and Gaza. But with no war-premium we are back to a defensive gold market which ran into a continued strong dollar and I think this spooked traders.

    Weakness actually began in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets – it then carried over into domestic trading as gold hit two month lows. We are now significantly under the 200 Day Moving Average on the close ($1273.70) and with a strong stock market and continued improvement in the economy I look for a test of the $1240.00 level in this latest shakeout. Still as prices become cheaper advantages increase in the physical market. 

    The Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole, Wyoming tomorrow but few think this will now change the lower price for gold into the weekend.

    We are now taking orders (spot plus $85.00) on the Perth Mint Goat which is the 8th coin in a series of 12 in the Lunar Series 2. Mintage on this 1 oz bullion coin will be capped at 30,000 – you can order today with delivery in September.  

    Silver closed down $0.08 at $19.39 and even at this lower number I do not see much public interest in silver bullion across the counter. Things remain slow – it’s summer time and for now the public does not seem to have the usual buying reaction to cheap silver prices.

    Platinum closed down $9.00 at $1419.00 and palladium was higher by $12.00 at $880.00. One of my favorite PGM metals rhodium took a beating today – down $60.00 at $1415.00 probably the result of decreased Soviet tension.  

    The 60 day gold chart will give you a better idea of gold’s recent direction. The high during this time was ($1340.00) at which time gold failed and was generally lower touching $1280.00 in early August. We then saw a reasonable bounce in prices moving again to over the $1300.00 mark. If you throw out the highs and lows gold seemed comfortable between $1320.00 and $1290.00 but generally the trend has been lower as the “war premium” evaporated.

    Now let’s talk about the thinking among gold commentators before the Ukraine and Gaza trouble became big headlines. Most believed that as quantitative easing continued gold would lose support – and in fact before recent safe haven buying it did lose value. Now look at the 1 year chart for gold and you will see a high of $1382.00 and a low of around $1240.00.

    Everyone will concede that that the psychology of this market has moved from neutral/bullish into a defensive mode with a negative bias. But if you now look at the 5 year gold chart you will see that gold has traded above the $1200.00 mark since August of 2010.

    So there is plenty of support within a hundred dollars of recent pricing. If you are a longer term buyer I think real physical demand will pick up as we approach the $1240.00 range especially as the summer months draw to a close. Even as thinking moves back to the old paradigm in which gold was unwinding and the Federal Reserve will end quantitative easing by year end.

    Why? First we are deep into this quantitative easing scenario and the end result is still an unknown. Unwinding the stimulus is one thing – avoiding long term damage is another. Second the Federal Reserve is desperate to keep housing (and all the related industry supported by housing) on track and the only way this happens is by keeping interest rates low.

    A continued stream of cheap money will support gold prices and over time push inflation numbers higher.

    For now however the inflation picture is mixed – food has begun to move higher and the only reason gas has not followed is because we have plenty of crude oil supply – but grain prices are moving lower – see what I mean – mixed. 

    This new dynamic relative to oil cannot last for long – the general trend for oil over the last 5 years has been higher. So unless you believe there is something magic at work with oil and the dollar both are subject to quick revisions.

    Look for the dollar to reverse direction and oil to stay at the higher end of its 5 year trend especially if you believe the US economy is coming back to life.

    Everyone is now bullish on the dollar so the corollary will soon be that gold must trade lower. And where did all this dollar bullishness come from you might ask? Well – relative to other currencies the dollar has always looked like a decent bet – and the dollar rallied once again yesterday as FOMC minutes suggested the labor market was picking up and therefore hikes will come in the lending rate sooner rather than later.

    I guess anything is possible but this outcome appears less likely to me because of what is happening in Europe but no matter at this point – let’s look at the dollar over a longer period of time. A graph of the 6 month US Dollar Index will show that the good old greenback has hovered pretty steadily around the 80.00 mark and only began a push to higher ground a few months ago.

    If you look at the one year dollar index chart you will see that the index at 82.25 is approaching a 12 month high (82.67) so dollar bulls should be happy. If you look however at a 3 year chart you will find that this 12 month high is still well below the 3 year high (85.00).

    So where am I going with this dollar thing? Well it’s easy to understand that with a strong dollar any move in gold will be capped but I would not get too carried away with the strong dollar argument. Why - because of the long-term debt build up – the result of massive tinkering with our economic system.

    Now consider the 5 year Dollar Index Chart - it has sold off from these higher levels at least three times. And if you want to look at the largest sell off during that time we moved from almost 90.00 to less than 75.00 in 2011.

    Of course it is impossible to say for sure what the Fed will do in these experimental money days but I find it hard to believe they will raise rates when our economy is still sputtering. I would not be surprised to see interest rates stay low – with the occasional rattle of sabers well into 2015. In which case we might soon see a dollar sell off – perhaps orchestrated by a similar call from Wall Street. This of course might be the voice in the wilderness – but then again we are only coin dealers.

    Finally get used to the idea that gold will struggle, especially short term as stocks remains strong. The NASDAQ this morning reached 14 year highs and even though stocks don’t look cheap anymore commentators are talking about higher highs. There is nothing like higher prices to attract speculation money and so for now fresh money continues to flow into stocks - money which might have otherwise been attracted to lower gold prices.        

    The walk-in cash trade was again modest – nothing special. The phones were also lackluster – and a few investors are growing tired of the lack of direction in this market.

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “4” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 2) (last Wednesday – 2) (last Thursday – 3) (last Friday – 4) (Monday – 3) (Tuesday – 3) (Wed – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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