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Gold Closes Soft and Quiet

Commentary for Tuesday, March 3, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $3.70 on the Comex today at $1204.00. And to say this market is “sleepy” might be an understatement. There is no buzz related to gold so we are back to “wait and see”.

Gold held its tight trading range despite tough talk from Netanyahu about the dangers of Iranian nuclear expansion. Still gold holds on either side of $1200.00 so physical demand is supportive (Europe perhaps) and this market while quiet does not seem like it wants to give up ground.

An alternative explanation for the rather firm gold market has been the interest rate cut in China which was made to help a slowing economy. The demand from that sector of the world has increased since the recent end to their official New Year.

The European Central Bank has begun to buy bonds in its effort to add liquidity to the European Union. The idea being that quantitative easing was semi-successful in the US and perhaps more currency floating around Europe will induce people to spend and business to invest.

Even with the temporary Greek bailout there are rumors of depositors draining their bank accounts in Greece. I’m not sure who wins here but a little gold under the mattress will at least calm the tension relative to banks going broke.

The 6 month gold chart is illustrative – and with a short study you will see why gold is so quiet. In the past 6 months gold has traded somewhere between $1300.00 and $1140.00 – throw out the highs and lows and the sweet spot seems to be something between $1180.00 and $1240.00. That is a $60.00 spread over 6 months of trading. So while gold can’t make up its mind – investors soon become complacent. As far as possible gold speculative money is concerned the stock market has performed admirably during the same 6 month period and stocks have paid handsome dividends. And on the short term it would seem this rather flat trading range for gold will remain in place until the next big financial scare. For sure this slow trading period is a good time to average down if you are in gold at higher prices but this has always been a negative argument to the American investor.

For now however it looks like we are going to have to get used to range bound trading and hope that the improved economy and higher interest rates does not encourage the short trade too much. Even the impassioned Netanyahu speech this morning blasting any short term nuclear deal with Iran as dangerous to the world did not move the gold price needle. Gold was down $4.00 before the speech and remained down for the Prime Minister’s entire presentation. This was surprising to me considering the Middle East is a powder keg and always a threat to the world financial system. His speech bordered on ominous and at any other time would have been worth $50.00 to the upside in the price of gold from the fear trade.

The 5 day crude oil chart is steady at slightly above $50.00 a barrel and the Dollar Index is mid-range on the trading day (95.39) seeing a low of 95.10 and a high of 95.57. The dollar is at 11 year highs against the euro so don’t expect any big move to the upside in gold.

Silver closed down $0.14 at $16.26. Finally some big action across the counter – there has even been some large trades of gold bullion for silver bullion. We are now within about $.50 of the lowest silver close this year - $15.75 on January 2nd.

Platinum closed down $2.00 at $1191.00 and palladium was up $1.00 at $831.00.

MarketWatch and Myra Saefong believe platinum could rise 18% by year end. She bases her conclusion on the fact that China has historically been an active platinum buyer when its price was near or below the price of gold.

This from Reuters – “U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month in January as households continued to cut back on purchases. Factory activity slowed in February and construction spending declined sharply in January, adding to signs that economic growth moderated early in the first quarter. Still, most analysts believe the Fed is on course to raise interest rates this year for the first time since 2006 amid a generally strengthening U.S. economy led by gains in its labor market. Janet Yellen's premium on consensus may lead to a Federal Reserve decision the chair hasn't yet endorsed, as a near majority aligns in favor of a possible June interest rate hike.”

The threat of higher interest rates in 2015 is a large roadblock for gold but only if the general trend is significantly higher. The talk of higher rates is old commentary at this point but there is not much out there as to exactly what the government has in mind so this may be a case of buy the rumor sell the fact in reverse.

How the government is going to balance higher interest rates against a world of near zero interest to encourage new quantitative easing programs remains to be seen. But this could turn out to be a psychological advantage for the physical gold market. A small increase in our interest rate might be a push for gold if the threat of really higher rates turns out to be a paper tiger.

I post the following from both David Stockman and Bloomberg because if it does not scare the bejeebers out of you – it should. The Keynesian economic machine continues now in Europe unabated and gold ignores all the moving parts. How long it will take before a second bull market in gold develops is difficult to say. I was sure the US quantitative easing program would produce another high water mark for gold but was proven wrong – at least for the present. Look at these numbers – the massive debt machine in Europe continues.

This from David Stockman (Contra Corner) – “In fact, the political foundation of the eurozone is already on its last leg—–as is evident in the utterly obsequious posture of the quasi-bankrupt governments of Portugal and Spain with respect to Greece’s pleas for relief. The latter were the most vociferous opponents of relief at the EC meeting— remonstrating even more Germanically than the Germans—–owing to the transparent fear that even a tidbit of justice for Greece would mean a swift ejection from the seats of power by their voters in favor of Syriza-style insurgents.

And now comes word that a third Greek bailout in the range of $50 billion is being cooked up in Brussels. And within this absurd new mountain of debt, approximately $17 billion of the subscription would be on the accounts of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland.

C’mon! What remains of democracy in the EU will bring about a euro shattering crisis long before the deflation-bashing Keynesians and statists in Brussels and Frankfurt can figure out what is hitting them. Needless to say, when the eurozone does crack-up, today’s $2 trillion of negative yielding government bonds will undergo a spectacular collapse. It will become known as the bonfires of the subprime sovereigns.

Nor will the German issues among the 88 negative yielders escape the day of reckoning. German business—especially its independent mid-sized firms—is self-evidently a force to be reckoned with. But the German economy was only recently the sick man of Europe and its statist interventions and taxes are less onerous only compared to France and the rest of the enterprise-killing European social democracies.

At the end of the day, Germany has enjoyed a modest economic expansion since 2008 only because it has been able to export its high value industrial engineering and consumer performance products to the credit driven booms in China and southern Europe. As these egregious bubbles deflate - so will Germany’s red hot exports and temporarily superior economic growth trend.

The prospect that German’s export machine will stumble badly in the coming years in itself makes a mockery of the ludicrously low 35 bps yield on its 10-year bond. But the speculators who are piling into it anyway on the basis of Draghi’s impending big fat bid need to riddle us this. Who will get stuck with the multi-hundred billion eurozone bailout guarantees when the rest of the EU walks? To save its credit, the one word Berlin will not be declaiming is nein!

Mario Draghi will surely prove to be one of history’s greatest monetary villains and cranks. Back in July 2012, the euro was already will beyond rescue, and the PIIGS needed an exit - orderly or otherwise—from the debt chains they had undertaken during the original euro boom.

But in three destructive words, Draghi crushed price discovery for the duration. So doing, he led the eurozone into the insanity summarized in today’s Bloomberg post: David Goodman and Lukanyo Mnyanda at Bloomberg – “The European Central Bank’s imminent bond-buying plan has left $1.9 trillion of the euro region’s government securities with negative yields.

Germany sold five-year notes at an average yield of minus 0.08 percent on Wednesday, a euro-area record, meaning investors buying the securities will get less back than they paid when the debt matures in April 2020.

By the next day, German notes with a maturity out to seven years had sub-zero yields, while rates on seven other euro-area nations’ debt were also negative. While some bonds had such yields as far back as 2012, the phenomenon has gathered pace since the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate to below zero last year.

Even when investors extend maturities, and move away from the region’s core markets, returns are becoming increasingly meager. Ireland’s 10-year yield slid below 1 percent for the first time this week, Portugal’s dropped below 2 percent, while Spanish and Italian rates also tumbled to records.

“It is something that many would not have pictured a year ago,” said Jan von Gerich, chief strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Helsinki. “It sounds very awkward in a sense, but if you look at it more, the central bank has a deposit rate in negative territory, and there’s a huge bond-buying program coming. People are holding on to these bonds and so you don’t have many willing sellers.”

Bond Indexes - Eighty-eight of the 346 securities in the Bloomberg Eurozone Sovereign Bond Index have negative yields, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Euro-area bonds make up about 80 percent of the $2.35 trillion of negative-yielding assets in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index, the data show.

Germany’s seven-year yield declined three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, this week to 0.019 percent as of 5 p.m. London on Friday. The rate reached minus 0.017 percent on Feb. 26, the lowest on record. The 2 percent note due in January 2022 rose 0.175, or 1.75 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,120) face amount, to 113.545. The nation’s 10-year rate fell four basis points from Feb. 20 to 0.33 percent and touched a record-low 0.283 percent on Thursday.

As part of the ECB’s 1.1 trillion-euro quantitative easing plan, the central bank will buy government bonds due between two - and 30-years, including those with negative yields, President Mario Draghi said in January. Policy makers may flesh out more details when they meet in Cyprus on March.

The ECB is trying to avert a deflationary spiral in a region that’s been hobbled by a sovereign debt crisis and two recessions since 2008. Investors have accepted having to pay euro-area governments to lend to them as the Frankfurt-based central bank lowered its deposit rate, the charge levied on lenders to park excess cash at the ECB overnight, to minus 0.2 percent in September.

The region’s bonds were further boosted this week as euro-area finance chiefs approved an extension of financial aid for Greece. The nation’s three-year yields, which reached 21.91 percent on Feb. 10, the highest since Greece restructured its debt in 2012, fell 224 basis points this week, to 14.39 percent.”

The walk-in cash trade was steady today – not hurried and the phones were just average.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 5” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday - 5) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 2) (Monday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”.

Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now interested in our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on conspiracy theory and vintage clothing - he would be happy to answer even the most ridiculous conspiracy question.

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

An Essential Guide to Buying and Selling Silver Bullion

If you have never purchased precious metals before, you may not know where to start when you see the wide variety of gold and silver bullion coins and bars for sale . For first-time investors, silver bullion is a great way to enter the market. Silver is less expensive than gold, so you can obtain more bars or coins for each dollar you invest. This allows you to sell smaller portions of your overall holdings when prices are high. For more tips on buying and selling silver bullion, read on.

How to Buy Silver
Of course, you should make sure that you are purchasing your coins and bar from a reputable bullion dealer. Besides the standard coins and bars that can be bought and sold purely for their metal content, consider purchasing certified rare silver coins. Often, coins with historical or numismatic value, especially those made from silver, are worth much more than freshly minted silver bullion .

How to Store Silver
Because the weight to value ratio of silver is much higher than that of gold or platinum, the same dollar value of silver bullion will be heavier and take up far more space than bullion of these other precious metals. Consider investing in independent storage for your silver bullion in a secure location, so that you don't have to worry about it being stolen from your home.

How to Sell Silver
Keep a record of the price of silver the day you buy your bullion. Except in dire circumstances, do not sell your silver at a time when the price is not substantially higher than the price you paid for the bullion. Always sell through a reputable dealer to ensure that you are getting the fair market price for your bullion, and the true numismatic value for your rare silver coins.

To buy, sell, or store silver bullion, call California Numismatic Investments at (888) 880-7101. Let us share our extensive knowledge of bullion with you to help you make the wisest investments for your income, budget, and needs.

Gold Pushes $1220.00 and Fails as the Weak Long Trade Covers

Commentary for Monday, March 2, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed off $4.90 on the Comex today at $1207.70 as gold’s recent firmness failed to show up to work Monday morning. What was an intact but small effort by the long trade at higher ground succumbed to profit taking.

China announced they would cut lending rates by 0.6% to encourage borrowing activity - their economy slowed to a 7.3% growth rate in 2014. Over the weekend India decided to keep the 10% tariff on gold imports in tack – too bad really most were looking for an improvement in that area. India did announce a plan to offer deposit accounts for owners of gold. It is estimated that citizens of India own some 20,000 tonnes of gold. The European Central Bank began their easing programs today which helped push the dollar to 11 year highs at 95.50 on the Dollar Index.

Coin World notes that sales of American Buffalo gold bullion coins for 2015 are off to a slow start. In January, the US Mint recorded sales of 34,500 coins which is 7,000 fewer than was sold in January of 2014. Sales of American Silver Eagles however are doing just fine with 2014 being a record breaking year and 2015 off to a record start – the US Mint recorded sales of 5.53 million Silver Eagles in January of 2015.

Silver closed down $0.11 at $16.40 – and even though prices seemed to have flattened out in silver the across the counter action remains firm. Our US Silver Eagle 1 oz sales are up 34% in the first two months of this year but don’t get out the party hats yet - gold sales of the US Eagle are down 54% for the same period.

Platinum was up $7.00 at $1192.00 and palladium was higher by $11.00 at $830.00. Traders of gold bullion for platinum bullion should be happy – it is still an excellent trade.

Gold was solid in overnight Hong Kong Trading above $1220.00 but began to weaken into London trading and continued to sell off in the domestic market. If you want to blame the dollar it’s OK – the Dollar Index previous close was 95.47 and it traded weaker touching a day low of 95.06 before reversing and moving higher to 95.50.

For my money however I would chalk this latest gyration up to a purely technical market. The overnight was pushed for further profit taking – we had seen gold push higher from the long standing $1200.00 support these past two weeks – a bit of a relief rally over the Janet Yellen comments. But considering the negative gold press and new record ground in stocks weak long hands took profits and moved to the sidelines.

This from Kira Brecht (Kitco.com) - 17 Central Banks Slash Rates - and The Year Is Only Getting Started – “By one count, 17 global central banks have slashed monetary policy rates in 2015. Global interest rates are going lower and they are going negative.

Global central banks are panicking in their efforts to fight low economic growth levels and the threat of deflation and interest rates are sliding like dominoes across a game table.

The rate cuts are intended to spur economic activity and drive inflation levels higher by boosting bank lending. BNP Paribas currently projects the CPI level for the advanced economies of the world at 0.6% for 2015. That is barely scraping the barrel on the positive side, with G-7 CPI inflation forecast at 0.5% this year.

But, if everybody is slashing rates and driving the value of their currencies lower to spur export activity how effective can this strategy be? It is like when everyone rushes to one side of the boat —it simply tips over.

The Fed is one of the few central banks fighting the tide this year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is still expected to begin hiking interest rates from its zero-bound level this year. But, how far can the Fed actually raise rates in a global environment of slow growth and deflationary concerns?

The economic questions become a vicious cycle of the chicken or the egg. Growth is low, companies are running razor thin profit-margins, they don’t provide wage increases to their employees, their employees don't spend, economic growth remains sluggish. How does the cycle end?

Central banks are doing their part by offering cheap money all around. However, some economists warn this is an experiment that could destabilize the financial system. Could negative interest rates cause savers to change their banking habits and no longer keep assets in a bank? In theory, that could detract from overall liquidity in the financial system. Let's take a look at where some key rates are now.

Central Bank Official Rates - Euro zone (0.05%) – UK (0.5%) – Sweden (-0.1% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – Denmark (-0.75% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – Norway (1.25% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – Switzerland (-1.25% to -0.25% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – US (0 to 0.25% - rate hike forecast this year) – Canada (0.75%) - Japan (0 to 0.10%) – Australia (2.25% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – China (2.75% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) - South Korea (2.00% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) – Thailand (2.00% - more rate cuts forecast ahead) - Source and forecasts: BNP Paribas

What could this all mean for gold?

"We see a risk that the current status quo among central banks may at some stage change:

After initial rate hikes there may be a case for the Fed to slow the pace of policy normalization against the backdrop of aggressive easing by central banks in World ex-US.

Alternatively, central banks globally may start coordinating monetary policy. In our view, either of these would potentially limit the upside to USD, which in turn may be bullish gold. Acknowledging that the macroeconomic set-up has been somewhat different, we note that a coordination of central bank activity in the wake of the Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a sharply decline of USD which in turn pushed gold prices up sharply," according to a B of A Merrill Lynch Global Research report.

Central banks are navigating through uncharted waters. Currency devaluation underscores the safe-haven value of gold as a wealth preservation vehicle. And, the year is only getting started.”

If you have not been keeping close watch the above post by Kira Brecht is the biggest thing gold has going for it today. Inflation will be the biggest thing it has going for it when all this fiscal liquidity begins to circulate.

This from Gary Wagner (thegoldforecast.com/Kitco) – Baked by the Fed – “Significantly, an important Fed member checked in today with his opinion on where rates are headed, although he really didn’t exactly add anything spanking new.

Stanley Fischer, vice chair of the Federal Reserve's board of governors (a voting member on the Fed's policymaking committee, the FOMC), told CNBC Friday there is a "high probability" of a rate increase this year.

We’re shocked. (Not really.)

He said the U.S. is coming "very close" to achieving a “natural rate of unemployment,” and he predicted that inflation should rise as the effect of low oil wears off "in a couple months."

We’re not sure that oil is going back to the mid-$80 range very soon.

"We've gotten used to thinking of a zero interest rate as normal—it's far from normal," Fischer said.

The central banker also reflected on the Fed's use of the term "patience" in its statements, saying that its removal would indicate "it could happen, depending on the data, at any meeting." hasn’t that always been true, patience or no patience?

We know that June and September are likely trigger dates, but we also feel there will be a slowdown reported in the first quarter reflective of the awful winter we’ve had in the U.S.”

I read Wagner all the time because he is a great chart man and is sensible. Now everyone knows that the Fed will raise rates this year – well not everyone – the idea is debatable. But I think the economic recovery is actually better than the numbers show so the Fed will raise rates because every day at these zero interest rate levels creates more chance of blow ups down the road.

But the most interesting part of Wagner’s post is the area that I highlighted about rising inflation. Who has said anything about inflation lately and who has linked low inflation to cheap oil? Remember the US was at near zero inflation for years before the price of crude oil collapsed. And who even hinted that this coming inflation was a couple of months away? If anyone but a member of the FOMC I would throw this comment out the window. Inflation is dead – right? Stanley Fischer is an insider and I have always wondered how much information this board releases and how much it keeps to itself? Too much transparency might create panic in the financial markets.

At any rate we will just have to wait and see but this throw in line was extraordinary. And if inflation even begins to rise in 2015 the last gold boogie man (rising interest rates) could turn into a neutral event.

Perhaps we will see another attempt at breaking to the upside in 2015 – let’s hope so. And remember my “wall of people” theory. It is not absolutely clear that we have heard the last of the bigger picture – the 10 year bull market in gold - it might just be resting.

That’s the reason gold continues to be stubborn to the downside. Sure it moves lower but it is not like all the people left the theater at once. There are a “wall of people” ready to jump on gold’s next big leg upward. Why? Because no has completely bought the idea that quantitative easing has no consequences.

The walk-in cash trade remains off and the phone action is just average. There is no buzz on either front so the physical market remains in neutral in my opinion.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 4” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday - 5) (Thursday – 4) (Friday – 2). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”.

Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now interested in our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on conspiracy theory and vintage clothing - he would be happy to answer even the most ridiculous conspiracy question.

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Firm into the Weekend on Light Safe Haven Buying

Commentary for Friday, Feb 27, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $3.00 on the Comex today at $1212.60 – underwhelming really considering we were up as much as $11.00 at one point in early trading - on the week gold was higher by $8.00 and this is the first weekly advance in 3 weeks. The Gross Domestic Product for the 4 th quarter was announced up 2.2% - not stunning but consistent with growth – Q3 was up 2.8%.

Silver closed down $0.07 at $16.51 in quiet trading and this soft number is representative of our across the counter action.

Platinum closed up $12.00 at $1185.00 and palladium was higher by $9.00 at $819.00.

Oil seems firm – steady on the 1 day chart and bouncing higher on the 5 day chart - we have moved from $51.00 a barrel to $48.00 – bouncing back to $49.00. Steady to higher will support gold but I expect further volatility here with a wider trading range.

The Dollar Index at this writing is 95.16 somewhat weaker and off its highs of 95.36 - so weaker but not enough to get excited about and certainly not strong enough to account for today’s higher prices.

So neither the dollar nor oil are accountable – still the gold market is firm – this strength might be coming from account squaring going into the weekend perhaps the short trade is nervous. And now that the Federal Reserve is not going to raise interest rates on the short term the mood of the physical market is moving away from negative back into neutral. China and Asian markets are coming back to life and we have seen a big jump in the PAMP gold bar market across our counter so higher gold prices are probably the result of some safe haven buying.

In the bigger picture however the physical market is not ready to get out the party hats. Let’s say the immediate tension of a rate hike is behind us but the prime mover for higher gold prices is still absent. My bet is that we stay range bound and defensive…waiting. The upcoming EU bond buying program may produce some sparks but inflation is still tame and the fear factor has subsided.

Finally just because the fireworks have subsided, don’t think there is not tension below the surface. There is a ton of money action ready to reenter this market at the first sign of trouble. And trouble these days is always right around the corner.

India could change the 10% tariff on gold imports this Saturday at their annual government budget meeting. India has recently made it easier on the physical gold trade through their banks but a change in the high tariff would be very encouraging especially at this pivotal time for gold.

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold's Direction Next Week?

Of course it's not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 7 believe gold will be higher next week – 4 think gold will be lower and 1 believes it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold's Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 43 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 40 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 17 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Feb 23 – 27

This week I have been rather brutal on the price of both gold and silver - indicating yesterday that it will take a big game changer to reframe the physical gold market on the short term. The keys to this rediscovery are twofold: renewed interest from the American speculative investor and a dollar which is losing value. My second choice of happy scenarios for the gold bullion buyer is a collapsing stock market. I don’t hold either scenario dearly but in the interest of equal time consider this following from Paul Farrell and gold buffs rejoice.

This from Market Watch Columnist Paul Farrell - It’s time to start the countdown to the crash of 2016. No, this is not a prediction of a minor correction. Plan on a 50% crash. Most investors don’t want to hear the countdown, will tune out. Basic psychology. They’ll keep charging ahead with a bullish battle cry, about how the Nasdaq will keep climbing relentlessly to a new record above 5,048 ... smiling as they remember reading that a whopping 73 companies are now in the Wall Street Journal’s Billion Dollar Start-up Club, with Uber ($41 billion), SpaceX ($12 billion) and Snapchat ($10 billion). Hearts race even faster reading in Bloomberg BusinessWeek that “China’s IPO Boom Mints Billionaires” and Jack Ma’s Alibaba fortune is now valued at $35.1 billion.

Yes, technology IPOs are in the lead, and with all that good news, it’s easy to understand why investors tune out, don’t want to hear the warnings, no countdown to the 2016 crash.

But the crash of 2016 really is coming. Dead ahead.

Maybe not till we get a bit closer to the presidential election cycle of 2016. But a crash is a sure bet, it’s guaranteed certain: Complete with echoes of the 2008 crash, which impacted on the GOP election results, triggering a $10 trillion loss of market cap ... like the 1999 dot-com collapse, it’s post-millennium loss of $8 trillion market cap, plus a 30-month recession ... moreover a lot like the 1929 crash and the long depression that followed.

Plus cycles theorists warn that we dodged a crash in 2012-2013, thanks to the Fed’s stimulus and cheap-money polities. Or rather delayed it, which adds more power to the next one.

Why not sooner, you ask? Why not in 2015? Yes, Mark Hulbert’s already warned that the “stock market risk is higher today than it was in the dot-com era.” Yes, a dip is possible. MarketWatch’s Sue Chang writes of a 10%-20% stock-market correction by July.

But we also know markets are typically up the third year of a presidency. So if no crash is in the cards this year, then why bother with warnings and a countdown? Why bother building up the 2016 elections with lots of dark early warning signs, and doom-and-gloom warnings for the next 18 months?

Why? Simple, behavioral economists have long been telling us that investors will either choose to stay in denial till it’s too late, never having learned the lessons of history when the market collapsed in 2008, 2000 or 1929, when they collectively lost trillions. Or we know some investors really do want to heed the warnings, so they can plan ahead, avoid big losses, and take advantage of opportunities later, at the bottom.

Deja vu 2008: Watch another presidential hopeful collapse!

Let’s compare 2016 with earlier crashes: 2008 to 2000 to 1929, knowing all bulls drop into bears eventually. Basic cycles theory. And this next one will trigger losses bigger than 2000 and 2008. So bet against the house at your peril.

Jeremy Grantham’s already on record predicting that “around the presidential election or soon after, the market bubble will burst, as bubbles always do, and will revert to its trend value, around half of its peak or worse.”

That will translate into the DJIA crashing from today’s 18,117 down 50% to about 9,000. Ouch, the Dow crashing all the way below 10,000. Unimaginable. Bulls will hate it. No wonder our brains tune out, turn off. Instead, we prefer the happy talk that will just keep coming out of Wall Street and Washington till the 2016 collapse. We’ll just keep denying reality ... till it’s too late, and we suffer another $10 trillion loss is on the books.

Deja vu 2000: irrational exuberance, dot-com technologies

Remember 1999. Just 16 years ago. Roaring hot “irrational exuberance.” Renewed stock market mania. Wall Street was hot. Stocks roaring. Back then investors demanded insane annual returns during the worldwide millennium celebrations: the top 19 mutual funds had 179% to 323% annual returns.

Yes, dot-com stockholders expected 100% plus returns on zero revenues. Laughed at 30% index fund returns. Early retirement was all the buzz in barbershops and at neighborhood barbecues ... Then came the tech crash of 2000. Two wars. A 30-month recession. By 2005, global real estate was a hot new mania. Wall Street, Main Street, all addicted to the next new manias ... More is never enough. We’re our own worst enemies.

Skeptics may think this is a joke. Far from it. There’s a huge lesson for all investors in this victory. But we never learn. We’re in denial. Repeat.

Deja vu the Crash of 1929: and the long Great Depression

“The United States is more vulnerable today than ever before including during the Great Depression and the Civil War,” says Thom Hartmann, in “The Crash of 2016.” Why? “Because the pillars of democracy that once supported a booming middle class have been corrupted, and without them, America teeters on the verge of the next Great Crash.” Thanks to an obstructionist GOP, hell-bent on destroying Obama the past six years. His indictment hits hard, but matching something you might hear from Rush Limbaugh on the Right.

“The United States is in the midst of an economic implosion that could make the Great Depression look like child’s play,” warns Hartmann. His analysis is brutal, sees that “the facade of our once-great United States will soon disintegrate to reveal the rotting core where corporate and billionaire power and greed have replaced democratic infrastructure and governance. Our once-enlightened political and economic systems have been manipulated to ensure the success of only a fraction of the population at the expense of the rest of us.” And he wrote that before Picketty’s “Capital in the 21st Century.”

Déjà vu the Crash of 2016: sorry you’ll never hear coming

Why won’t we hear the crash? Are we all deaf? No. In fact, the warnings are always long and loud and crystal clear. So why won’t most investors hear them? Here’s why ...

The crashes will just keep coming. On March 20, 2000 we warned: “Next crash? Sorry, you’ll never hear it coming.” But few listened. The 1990’s dot-com’s mania was so blinding, it drowned out rational thinking, led to Wall Street losing $8 trillion in the 2000-2003 bear market recession. Still, nothing much has changed. Another round of warnings roared from 2004 into 2008. Few listened. Then another crash. And Wall Street lost even more, $10 trillion.

Throughout much of 2012-2013, pundits warned how bad the market really was. But in December the Wall Street Journal revealed that after 13 years in negative territory, Wall Street’s “Lost Decade” (which lasted from the 2000 crash to the end of 2013), finally broke even on an inflation-adjusted basis. And investors got back into bullish feelings. And that eased the panic and bought the bulls more time.

Yikes, it took 13 long years to break even from Wall Street’s losses of 2000 and 2008. And now investors are being warned that the Crash of 2016 will be even worse, with new losses of 50%. In short, the market really is bad news.

But still, here we are again, panicking: Fearing that 2016 will repeat 1929, fearing that Wall Street and Main Street, tens of millions of Americans, plus the Fed, the SEC, Washington politicians in both parties will refuse to prepare for the Crash of 2016. Will deny hearing the warnings ... of the Crash of 2016, one that promises in the end to become bigger and badder and far more dangerous than 2008, 1999 and 1929 combined. Listen closely, the countdown to the Crash of 2016 has started.

The walk-in cash trade was quiet today and so were the phones - very quiet as represented by our Unscientific Activity Scale. I would not be too concerned here – in the coin business there are many levels of “quiet” unknown to the public – there’s “scary quiet” (really) and my favorite “run for your life quiet” (I just made that up but needed something after “scary”).

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 2” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 5) (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday - 5) (Thursday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”.

Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now interested in our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on conspiracy theory and vintage clothing - he would be happy to answer even the most ridiculous conspiracy question.

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your weekend!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Moves Higher Despite a Stronger Dollar

Commentary for Thursday, Feb 26, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed higher again today on the Comex up $8.60 at $1209.60 even though the dollar reached a monthly high against the euro.

This from Market Watch – “Core CPI rose 0.2% in January, beating a consensus forecast of 0.1% growth from economists polled by MarketWatch. The headline CPI number, which factors in more-volatile food and energy prices, reflected a 0.7% contraction, in-line with economists’ forecasts.

Currency traders largely dismissed less-flattering jobless-claims data and the solid durable-goods orders report, analysts said. New unemployment claims rose to 313,000 last week, a six-week high. The volatile durable-goods orders number rose to 2.8% in January, beating expectations. Meanwhile, orders for core capital goods, a proxy for business investment, rose 9.5%.

“After throwing all this data in a blender and setting it to puree, traders have come to the conclusion that this morning’s reports represent a small positive for the world’s reserve currency, and the dollar index is now edging up back up to the mid-94.00s,” wrote Matthew Weller, senior technical analyst at Forex.com.”

Now here is something you don’t often see – a rising gold market reversing the most recent downward trend on the short term. So momentum players have helped gold rise for at least the past few days – this upward draft carried into Thursday and the Dollar Index rises substantially.

Initially flat in early trading the Dollar Index moved from slightly above 94.00 to 95.29 in a matter of hours after a stronger than expected consumer price index number surprised. Basically higher consumer prices indicate that the drop in inflation will fade. Gold benefited – moving higher in what might be interpreted as signs of inflation. I would not bet the farm here – inflation is rather dead but this does reinforce the notion that monetary debasement has consequences.

The overall technical picture for both gold and silver on the shorter term remains weak. For now the bears are in control so expect the short paper trade to test weak hands – this has been the usual trading strategy for professionals for some time now as the metals continue to unwind. This choppy up and down action is caused by bear paper raids followed by short covering profits.

The November/December gold run to the upside evaporated at $1300.00 as Europe and safe haven buying subsided and profit taking pushed markets lower. The Greek scare was dissuaded with promises of money for debt maintenance but keep in mind this is a delaying tactic – where the Greek state is going to get the billions they already owe is difficult to imagine. Expect a similar standoff sometime in May with the usual questions about the Greek exit from the European Union. Gold never reacted to the Russian/Ukraine tension – something that not too long ago would have been worth $50.00 to the upside – this is troubling.

And gold has yet to be heard from regarding the new EU quantitative easing program. The actual program will begin in March and consist of monthly bond buying to the tune of $60 billion eruo ($70 billion US) and continue into 2016. This is not small potatoes – Draghi is going in with guns blazing.

Another positive note is the Chinese are back and buying. If you believe demand for gold from China is in any way tenuous consider the following from Chuck Butler (Everbank/The Daily Pfennig) - “So, I guess the Chinese didn't just sit around eating chocolate bonbons and watching Oprah, while they were out last week, for they came back to work, loaded for bear! The Chinese State Council announced yesterday that they were going to step up fiscal policy support and strengthen targeted controls to combat downward pressure on the economy. A package of tax breaks for small businesses, a reduction of the unemployment insurance tax, which will save businesses over 40 Billion renminbi / yuan annually, and a pledge to speed up construction of major water projects in the less developed central and western regions, are the highlights, and there are more projects in the package that was presented by the State Council.

He also included this insight: This is a note that Addison Wiggin printed 5 years ago from someone in China. Now remember this is 5 years ago in China. "What people fail to grasp," this individual wrote, "is this place is much more capitalist than the States now: No capital gains tax - no property tax - no local or state taxes - a reasonable 35% tax rate for the highest earners - corporate tax rates of 0% for three years and 15% per year after that.

Still dollar strength caps any gold upside for now. Dollar strength or weakness remains a prime mover in the gold market. On the short term dollar weakness is the best chance gold has of bucking the negative trend but I would not hold my breath.

Consider Wall Street – stocks are paying investors big money. Equities are sometimes scorned in the physical gold community – this is a big mistake. A successful stock market – consider the massive market cap in a stock like Apple – is a significant drag on the price of gold.

Many believe Janet Jellen will move to raise interest rates perhaps even by this summer but with a sluggish housing market I think this is optimistic. The Federal Reserve might just dance around this question perhaps even into the third quarter of 2015.

But this alone is not enough to shake off the negative technical picture in gold. I reviewed her comments and while many consider them to be very dovish she is mighty crafty and left many options open and at the same time encouraged Wall Street.

The most recent economic numbers out of China are encouraging and it seems the government of India will soon reduce its import tariff on gold. Both of these developments are encouraging but unfortunately only provide support at current levels. Both of these nations are masters at buying the dips in gold – they will continue to do so – crashing through the front door is not in their interest.

What we really need is a game changing event to encourage the physical market. Without another “scare” of some sort gold might drift between $1150.00 and $1250.00 - supported by the real physical trade centered in China and India.

This is exactly what the physical trade does not need – a continued flat market produces a large “yawn” for today’s investors. The American buyer loses interest quickly especially as the US economy continues to gain strength and stocks remain solid. Speculative money is drawn away from gold and silver and into corporate America – and it’s difficult to argue when public companies are paying solid dividends and stock prices are either stable or moving higher.

Under the circumstances the biggest thing gold has going is near zero interest rates worldwide. But this factor has been true since the first round of quantitative 6 years ago. Inflation is still benign and both the financial and government complex is still waiting for the blowback.

Still gold remains the premiere safe haven asset when world tension increases. And there are plenty of reasons to fear financial bubbles which have been created because essentially free money creates a world of risk takers.

Sometimes the risks prove rewarding but the bad bets always surface. That is where a small and regular investment in gold and silver bullion, especially at the lower end of its current trading range makes sense. This cost averaging in a general negative market is a good insurance bet. This is especially true because you have not heard the last of Keynesian monetary policy.

Silver closed up $0.16 at $16.58 which is now the new normal perhaps even neutral price range for the physical silver market. The mid-$16.00 range for silver would have at one time brought in a crowd. Now the public wants the pot sweetened a bit before proceeding.

Platinum closed up $3.00 at $1173.00 and palladium closed up $2.00 at $810.00. Today there was little action in either metal despite platinum being down 20% this past year.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange reports for the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the April Gold contract: Wednesday 2/25 (261,261) - Tuesday 2/24 (264,156) – Monday 2/23 (265,018) - Friday 2/20 (262,861) and Thursday 2/19 (264,019). Trading volume is on the high side and has been steady in this area for weeks.

The walk-in cash trade was below average – some cash sellers seemed disappointed and might be just moving to the sidelines. The phones were also quiet – absolutely no buzz.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 4” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 5) (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday - 5). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”.

Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

We always appreciate you keeping us up to date when moving or changing your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits.

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now interested in our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on conspiracy theory and vintage clothing - he would be happy to answer even the most ridiculous conspiracy question.

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business. Enjoy your evening!

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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