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    Gold Settles for Book-Squaring into the Long Weekend

    Last updated 3 days ago

    Commentary for Friday, Aug 29, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $2.90 at $1285.80 initially moving to as high as $1292.00 over the Russian incursion but as fears abated trading moved to book-squaring ahead of the long weekend.

    On the brighter side gold did close above its 200 Day Moving Average ($1285.00) and prices, at least over the Labor Day weekend seem firm because of potential safe haven buying. On the week gold was up a very tepid $7.00 and a better word to describe trading would be “flat” with little real interest either here or in Europe.

    Economic news continues to be encouraging as the Chicago PMI scoring a higher than expected 64.3 – a big recovery from last month’s number and further indication that the Federal Reserve can continue its tapering program. The Purchasing Managers Indexes are economic indicators derived from month surveys of private sector companies. This type of positive economic information helps keep the dollar strong and a lid on the metals.

    Platinum closed down $1.00 at $1425.00 and palladium was up $12.00 at $903.00. Palladium has been strong all week because traders believe that the Russians will retaliate against sanctions by holding palladium production from the market. Rhodium closed unchanged at $1325.00.

    Some considerations about gold in the shorter term: (1) Europe is looking at deflation so regardless of the strong US dollar these two forces must at some point be reconciled. (2) The US stock market is an unbeatable act at the present – this will continue to drain speculative funds from otherwise gold friendly investors. (3) The Russian/Ukraine situation is much more serious than generally understood. The American public discounts this because the “back and forth” seems benign. This is not true in Europe because those folks still have up front and personal experience with World War II. A gold flight to quality over there is a real possibility if things get out of hand and could push prices substantially higher in the short term.  (4) No trader wants to be either long or short into a long weekend – so the closing Friday paper market is more book-squaring than anything else – just defensive. (4) The ISIS threat is becoming a bigger reality. President Obama is rightly cautious and so is England. This is another mess which will support gold prices. (5) The continued tapering by the Federal Reserve will pressure the price of gold but not to the extent that everyone believes. (6) In the not too distant future gold will once again become a hedge against all things unforeseeable as the mega trend continues to support long term accumulation. This “long term” trend approach has been documented and shared by the Aden Sisters for years. Keep in mind that gold has been either sideways or down in value for several years. The sellers have pretty much played their hand so in the physical market those still standing will continue to hold. So I am convinced that with the physical selling trend abating – the continued central bank accumulation and the real threat of inflation the future for gold looks brighter than the paper press might have you believe.

    MOSCOW, August 27 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian oil company Gazprom Neft has agreed to export 80,000 tons of oil from Novoportovskoye field in the Arctic; it will accept payment in rubles, and will also deliver oil via the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO), accepting payment in Chinese yuan for the transfers, the Russian business daily Kommersant reported Wednesday. The Russian government and several of the country’s largest exporters have widely discussed the possibility of accepting payments in rubles for oil exports. Last week, Russia began to ship oil from the Novoportovskoye field to Europe by sea.

    Two oil tankers are expected to arrive in Europe in September. According to Kommersant, the payment for these shipments will be received in rubles. Gazprom Neft will not only accept payments in rubles; subsequent transfers via the ESPO may be paid for in yuan, the newspaper reported. According to the newspaper, the change in currency was made because of the Western sanctions against Russia. In March, in response to Crimea’s reunification with Russia, the United States and the European Union introduced a number of targeted sanctions against Russia. As the Ukrainian crisis escalated, the United States introduced several new rounds of sanctions targeting Russia’s defense, energy and banking sectors, and persuaded its allies to blacklist several Russian citizens and companies. As a protective measure, Russia decided to avoid making its payments in US dollars, which can be tracked and controlled by the United States government, Kommersant reported. Gazprom Neft gained control over the Novoportovskoye field in 2012. The field’s recoverable reserves exceed 230 million tons of oil and 270 billion cubic meters of gas. It is located in the Arctic and is part of the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District.

    Precious Metal Closes for this week – Aug 25 through Aug 29 – 2014

                Gold                Silver              Platinum         Palladium

    Mon    $1277.30         $19.33             $1420.00         $889.00

    Tues    $1283.80         $19.37             $1421.00         $888.00

    Wed    $1281.90         $19.39             $1421.00         $893.00

    Thurs  $1288.70         $19.53             $1426.00         $896.00

    Fri       $1285.80         $19.40             $1425.00         $908.00

    So which way is gold going next week?

    This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 5 believe gold will be higher next week – 4 think gold will be lower and1 believes it will be unchanged.

    Also consider a survey on what our customers think about the gold market next week.

    Like the employees they were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 customers – unscientific yes but worth considering because these people actually took action: 55 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 26 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 19 think prices will remain the same.

    The walk-in cash business today was frantic all day - mostly small to mid-size with a good mix of buying and selling. The phones however remained somewhat on the quiet side.  

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “2” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 2) (Tuesday – 4) (Wednesday – 2) (Thursday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and remember we will be closed this Monday for Labor Day.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Gold Moves Marginally Higher on Safe-Haven Buying

    Last updated 4 days ago

    Commentary for Thurs, Aug 28, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up an unimpressive $6.80 at $1288.70 as the Russians argue over who owns the military equipment which has crossed the Ukrainian boarder. One thing is sure – the US Security Council thinks enough about the incursion to call an emergency meeting. What a joke – even with obvious national aggression the gold market can’t manage an aggressive move to the upside.

    It is not that the international market does not see what is going on – it is that they still really do not see this Russian/Ukraine back and forth as dangerous. This could be a mistake – as veteran traders see a big possible upside here – perhaps developing into something over $1300.00 by next week. This is a bit too optimistic for me but I would have expected more especially considering we are now moving into the weekend.

    The revised 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised upward today (4.2%) – this is the supersized edition and will provide more weight to the now in place Federal Reserve plan to bring their quantitative easing to an end. This of course has always weighed on the price of gold but I really think at this stage of the game most of the damage has already been done.

    Another reminder that we will be closed this Monday for Labor Day.

    Silver moved higher by $0.14 at $19.53.

    Platinum was up $5.00 at $1426.00 and palladium was up $3.00 at $896.00. Rhodium was unchanged at $1325.00.

    Chicago Mercantile Exchange reports for the last 5 trading days – so in fact we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the December Gold contract: Thursday 8/21/14 (145,351) - Friday 8/22/14 (91,730) - Monday 8/25/14 (53,712) - Tuesday 8/26/14 (103,850) and Wednesday 8/27/14 (67,240).

    The volume numbers appear fairly steady and descending which might mean traders and markets are less anxious as slow summer trading winds down and while geopolitical problems like Ukraine and Gaza might make the papers – they seem to have less leverage on actual trading.    

    From GoldSilverWorlds – The Truth About Our Money - Ted Butler - How The Coming Silver Bubble Will Develop – “In this article, precious metals market analyst Ted Butler (www.butlerresearch.com) explains his vision of how a silver bubble is going to develop. Contrary to the mainstream view, Mr. Butler believes that the silver peak of 2011, when spot silver intraday touched $49 per ounce on May 1st 2011, was only an intermediary peak. In other words, the real price explosion lies still in front of us. Of particular interest is the role of the ongoing silver price manipulation as a key driver in the creation of a bubble.

    What is an asset bubble? An asset bubble occurs when a large number of buyers, normally not usually prone to speculate in an asset, bid the price of that asset much higher than underlying valuations would support, most often fueled by leverage or borrowed money. Typically, towards the terminal phase of the bubble the most compelling reason for continuing to buy the asset is due to the rising price itself, as all caution is thrown to the wind amid the collective belief that prices can only move higher still. Then, when the last possible speculator has purchased the asset, the inevitable occurs and the price of the asset collapses as previous buyers turn into sellers and attempt to get out. Since the formation of the bubble and its inevitable collapse are driven by the collective emotions of greed and fear, it is generally impossible to predict how long an asset bubble will persist and how high the price can climb, as well as the timing and extent of the subsequent collapse.

    How do asset bubbles develop? Most often, an asset bubble develops when an undervalued asset which has a compelling investment story and there exists an overall financial environment of sufficient buying power, catches the collective interest of the crowd. For example, by the mid-2000’s and after years of steady appreciation, residential real estate developed into an asset bubble amid the self-fulfilling cycle of continued gains and the availability of easy credit.

    As far as great stories go, silver has the best potential story to develop into a bubble. First, there is little argument that it is among the most, if not the most undervalued asset of all by objective relative historical price comparison. In addition, it is at or below its primary cost of production, as evidenced in recent quarterly earnings reports. Remember, most bubbles start out with an asset that is undervalued – on this score silver more than qualifies as being undervalued.

    Aside from extreme undervaluation, the silver story is multi-faceted. Silver is both an industrial metal and a primary investment asset, the net effect being that very little newly-produced silver is available for investment, perhaps only 10% of the one billion oz produced yearly (mine plus recycling), or 100 million oz annually. In dollar terms, at current prices that comes to less than $2 billion per year. There are two ways to look at that; the observation that there are countless individuals and investment funds capable of ponying up that entire amount on their own and the fact that $2 billion amounts to less than 30 cents on a per capita basis for the world’s 7 billion inhabitants. Simply put, there is no other asset class which would require less buying to develop into a bubble than silver.

    Apart from newly-produced silver available for investment, the amount of previously produced metal available for investment, or world inventories, is also shockingly low. As a result of a 65 year deficit consumption pattern that ended in 2005, world silver inventories have been depleted by 90% from the levels existing at the start of World War II. Today, only a little over one billion oz of metal in accepted bullion industrial form exists with perhaps another billion oz existing in coins and bars. In dollar terms, that comes to $20 to $40 billion, where most other asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate and even gold) are measured in the many trillions of dollars. And please, never confuse what exists with what’s available for purchase – only the owners of the small amount of silver that exists will determine at what price it is available.

    The conclusion is simple – the asset requiring the least amount of buying to create a bubble is, automatically, the best candidate for developing into the biggest bubble. The fuel for any bubble is total (world) buying power versus the actual amount of an asset available for purchase. Previous, as well as prospective, bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate grew to many trillions of dollars of total valuation. At $200 an ounce, all the silver in the world (bullion plus coins) would “only” amount to $400 billion, not even a rounding error to the total valuation of stocks, bonds, real estate and, even, gold. In other words, due to silver’s current undervaluation and its shockingly small amount in existence, it has more room to the upside than any other asset class.

    But I’m not done. Silver’s unique dual role as a vital industrial material and primary investment asset creates a setup for something happening that has never occurred in any previous bubble. As and when sufficient physical investment buying develops in silver to drive prices significantly higher, the industrial consumers of silver, in everything from electrical and solar applications to medical and chemical applications, will likely be subject to delays in the customary delivery timelines of the metal. As is almost always the case, whenever industrial consumers of a commodity are deprived of timely deliveries, they resort to stockpiling that commodity as a remedy, further exacerbating delivery delays to other users.

    Thus, the stage is set for something the world has never experienced previously – an asset bubble accompanied with an industrial shortage. The two greatest upward price forces known to man, an asset bubble and a genuine commodity shortage, appear set to combine in silver. Either one, alone, would have a profound impact on the price, but the combination seems both inevitable and almost impossible to contemplate in terms of how high the price of silver could be driven. And it’s hard to see how intense investment buying wouldn’t trip off industrial user attempted inventory stockpiling or vice versa; it doesn’t matter which comes first.

    Tying everything together, there is one and only one explanation for why silver is so undervalued and the asset bubble/industrial shortage hasn’t occurred yet – the ongoing price manipulation on the COMEX. Massive amounts of paper contracts traded between two groups of large speculators (technical funds and commercials), measuring in the hundreds of millions of ounces and completely unrelated to the supply/demand fundamentals have set the price of silver. This COMEX price control is both the curse and the promise in that it not only explains the undervaluation, it will explain why it seems inevitable for an asset bubble/user shortage to develop.

    Think of it this way – the asset with the greatest potential for becoming the biggest bubble ever had better have the greatest story ever as well.  And that is what the COMEX silver manipulation is – the key ingredient in the greatest investment potential score ever.  If silver wasn’t manipulated how good would the story be? Absent manipulation, I wouldn’t buy or hold silver because that would mean that free market forces were setting the price all along. In other words, if silver wasn’t manipulated there would be scant reason to buy it in my eyes. If I wasn’t convinced silver was manipulated, I can’t see how I would have ever written this or anything about it in the past or could have become interested in it in the first place.

    As painful as recent prices have been to existing holders because of the manipulation, without it there would be little chance for a price explosion at some point. The easiest major potential change in the silver price equation is for the manipulation to end, one way or another. And if history and logic win out, the silver manipulation must end, not the least because of the coming clash between paper and physical silver. Some call it the disconnect between paper derivatives contract on the COMEX and actual physical silver, but in reality the story is that COMEX futures contracts are very much connected to each other via the delivery mechanism.

    The connection between paper and physical has been forged because the main COMEX futures speculators are only interested in trading paper futures contracts and not in trading physical metal. Technical funds have no desire to buy and sell real metal for full cash payment when they can deal in paper contracts for only 10% cash down because they are trading, not investing. The problem is that the trading between the technical funds and the commercials has become so large that it dwarfs real world silver supply/demand fundamentals and ends up setting the price of silver in violation of commodity law. I know that this perversion of the price-discovery process has existed for a long time, but it would be wrong to confuse longevity with permanence.

    The fact is that while the COMEX paper market dominance has lorded over the real supply and demand fundamentals, the stage has been set for a physical asset bubble/industrial user panic event. I’ve become convinced that any prospective bubble in silver won’t be driven by the aggressive buying of COMEX futures contracts, but only by physical buying. For one thing, the crooked CME and CFTC would never allow any group of traders to drive silver prices sharply higher by buying unlimited amounts of COMEX futures contracts. If the technical funds do buy big amounts of COMEX silver futures contracts (as was the case from June to mid-July), you can almost be certain that the CME and CFTC knew that those funds would be soon forced to sell on lower prices.

    As a result, any bubble in silver must and will develop from physical investment buying. Surely, any industrial user inventory buying panic must involve immediate physical delivery and not a paper futures contract in a time of delivery delays and uncertainty. In fact, it is hard to imagine, as a silver bubble begins to develop, a greater urgency for holding only physical metal to intensify, due to a growing recognition that the COMEX manipulation was responsible for the former low price.

    Since I am speaking in terms of a potential historic asset bubble in silver, I am implying that the price of silver will far exceed its true value at some point before correcting sharply. It is before that collapse point, that God-willing, I intend to sell. I am not deluding myself that I will come close except hoping not to be terribly early or late. While I respect anyone’s reasons for buying and holding silver, my mission has always been to help end the manipulation and be done with silver after that was accomplished and reflected in the price.

    This article is based on a commentary of Ted Butler’s premium service at www.butlerresearch.com which contains the highest quality of gold and silver market analysis. Ted Butler is specialized in precious metals market analysis for over four decades.”

    The walk-in cash trade picked up today and so did the phones – not because there has been any action created by the Russian/Ukraine problem – it is just that yesterday was so dead that any noise created today seemed like some excitement.

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “4” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 2) (Tuesday – 4) (Wednesday – 2). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Rare Coin Sells for $10 Million!

    Last updated 4 days ago

    It’s hard to believe that coins with such small face values can be worth so much to collectors, but the fact remains that rare coins are one of the best investments you can make. Exceptionally rare coins such as the 1774 “flowing hair silver dollar” that recently sold for $10 million will only become more valuable as time goes on, granted that they maintain their condition. To learn more about this rare coin and other valuable coins, watch this short video clip.

    California Numismatic Investments can guide you as you build your rare coin collection. Whether you are collecting as an investment or as a hobby, our rare coin dealers can help you select the perfect coins for your collection. We also specialize in precious metals, and can help you buy or sell gold, silver, platinum, and other precious metals. To learn more about our coin and precious metal services, call us toll-free (888) 612-2679

    Gold Prices Remain Flat and Uninteresting

    Last updated 5 days ago

    Commentary for Wed, Aug 27, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $1.90 at $1281.90 in continued sleepy summer trading. Gold again traded nearly flat in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets – slightly above and below the $1285.00 mark. This short trading range ($5.00) continued into the domestic market and did not seem particularly interested in the Gaza/Israeli progress.

    Today’s close ($1281.90) is below gold’s 200 Day Moving Average ($1284.65) so the technicians are not happy. Gold did see some upward bias in early trading reacting to the lower dollar but these slight advances could not be maintained in light of a generally weaker oil market which has seen $108.00 per barrel in July versus $93.00 presently.

    The 60 day gold chart will reveal why the public seems to be ignoring physical gold for the present. The trend has been generally soft moving from above the $1300.00 mark to some consolidation around $1280.00. This type of market does not promote physical buying because the consumer can adopt a “wait and see” attitude while sipping on their pina coladas.

    Silver was also subdued and uninteresting – up $0.02 at $19.39.

    Platinum closed unchanged at $1421.00 and palladium was up $5.00 at $893.00. Rhodium moved lower by $25.00 at $1325.00.    

    From London (Bullion Street) - ETF Securities – Weekly Report - Palladium remains in the spotlight but platinum is looking increasingly attractive. Despite some profit taking earlier in the week, palladium recovered to end the week with a year-to-date gain of 23.3%. Platinum remained under pressure though, declining 2.1% reducing the 2014 gain to 4.3%. Due to its strong relationship to the European diesel vehicle market, platinum has been under pressure recently on the back of weaker-than-expected European economic data and the weak Euro. Among the precious metals, platinum has the highest correlation to the Euro currency, near 0.58 compared to 0.40 for palladium since 2009. In the aftermath of the South African strikes and potential Russian sanctions, both markets are expected to record double-digit deficits this year, with Johnson Matthey forecasting a 14% deficit for platinum and 15% deficit for palladium. 

    "Although we remain favorable to both palladium and platinum, reports of mine closures in Zimbabwe and rising Chinese imports toward the end of the week, could reverse the downtrend in platinum. We believe that platinum will rise faster than palladium in coming months, allowing the metal to narrow the recent underperformance." 

    Here is our usual Wednesday look at Exchange Traded Funds:

    Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-20-14 was 55,412,344. That number this week (8-27-14) was 55,288,445 ounces so over the last week we dropped 123,899 ounces of gold.

    It might also be interesting to note that in 2013 the record high for all gold ETF’s was 85,112,855 ounces. In 2014 the record low was 54,773,273 ounces.

    All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-20-14 was 629,983,308. That number this week (8-27-14) was 631,459,523 ounces so over the last week we gained 1,476,215 ounces of silver.

    All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-20-14 was 2,841,672 ounces. That number this week (8-27-14) was 2,841,672 ounces so over the last week we dropped 75,677 ounces of platinum.

    All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of 8-20-14 was 3,078,802 ounces. That number this week (8-27-14) was 2,957,712 ounces so over the last week we dropped 121,090 ounces of palladium.

    This from the Wall Street Journal (Biman Mukherji) – India’s Appetite for Gold Improves -

    “Still, demand remains tepid in China, the world's biggest buyer, and sales in the rest of the world are sluggish despite a number of geopolitical risks that normally increase demand for the safe-haven metal. India and China together account for about 70% of the world's gold market and sales usually peak near the end of the year because of buying ahead of Hindu festivals including Diwali, and Lunar New Year in China.

    "Demand is picking up every day. Festival season sales have started," said Rahul Gupta, managing director of P.P. Jewellers, a large Indian jewelry chain.

    Demand has risen as buyers have dived in after a heavy fall in prices over the past week, Mr. Gupta said. The rupee has also strengthened against the dollar, pushing domestic gold prices below 28,000 rupees ($463) per 10 grams.

    India will celebrate the birthday of the elephant-headed god of wisdom Ganesha on Friday, a major festive occasion in the western region. Gold sales in India usually rise during religious festivals as it is considered auspicious to buy gold ornaments. During Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights that is celebrated on Oct. 23, people also typically invest in gold coins and bars.

    It has been an unusual roller-coaster ride for gold premiums in India because of uncertainty over policies, elections and monsoon rains. Gold premiums were at $100 in February, but fell to $60 in May after the government allowed private trading companies to import bullion and plunged to zero in July, when demand for gold is usually weak because of a lack of festivals.

    Prithviraj Kothari, vice president of Indian Bullion and Jewellers Association, said gold imports in August will likely total 40 metric tons but are expected to rebound to June's level of around 70 tons in September.

    "Everybody was fearing that a bad monsoon will hit the festival demand. Fortunately, the monsoon has picked up and it is not so bad," he said. The majority of India's gold demand comes from rural areas and therefore, the monsoon plays a big part in purchases.

    In China, demand is expected to pick up around the end of the year, coinciding with wedding season demand and extending to Lunar New Year festivities in late-February. Shanghai gold has been trading at a premium of $3-$7 an ounce over London prices in the past month, indicating moderate to weak demand.

    "People are still holding a lot of gold inventory [in China]," said Wallace Ng, a senior precious metals trader based in Beijing. "I don't see [domestic] demand improving in the short term. We are waiting for the old inventory to diminish."

    Demand for gold in China will likely surge ahead of Lunar New Year, Mr. Ng said.”

    The AP Survey: Fed’s Outlook Correct but not Solution (Christopher S. Rugaber – AP Economics Writer) - Economists appear to be of two minds about the Federal Reserve.

    They agree with the Fed that the job market still isn't healthy. Yet the latest Associated Press survey of economists finds that most fear the Fed will wait too long to raise interest rates and thereby risk stoking inflation or creating asset bubbles.

    The duality of their views underscores the perils of the Fed's policymaking. Most economists accept that there's still "significant" slack in the job market. By that they mean that millions of people — the unemployed as well as part-time workers and people who've stopped looking for work and aren't counted as unemployed — would likely take jobs or work more hours if they could. Still, they're concerned that Janet Yellen's Fed won't raise rates soon enough.

    "I agree with her diagnosis; I even like what she has in mind," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "But I'm skeptical that she'll be able to pull it off."

    The AP surveyed three dozen private, corporate and academic economists from Aug. 13 to19. In follow-up interviews, several said they feared that by waiting too long to raise rates, the Fed could ignite inflation or may already be feeding speculative bubbles in assets such as stocks or high-yield bonds.

    "Yellen's much more concerned about the Fed's employment mandate than inflation," said David Shulman, an economist at UCLA's Anderson School of Management, referring to the Fed's drive to lower unemployment. "They'll risk financial bubbles."

    Lynn Reaser, a professor at Point Loma Nazarene University, agrees with Yellen that if the economy were nearing full health, workers' pay would be rising faster, fewer people would be unemployed for more than six months and many part-timers who want full-time jobs would manage to find them.

    But "by the time we hit that situation, there may already be pressures on the inflation front or significant bubbles in various asset markets," Reaser said. "To play catch-up at that point may require large increases in interest rates, which could be very damaging to the economy."

    Strikingly, while the economists worry that the Fed won't get out of the way of the strengthening U.S. recovery soon enough, they fear the opposite about Europe: That its economy may have entered a "lost decade" similar to Japan's long-standing stagnation.

    Some, like Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics, think the European Central Bank has been too cautious and should launch a bond-buying program akin to what the Fed had done. The idea would be to keep rates low, boost stock prices and shrink the euro's value, which would make European exports more affordable.

    "The sooner they do that, the better the chance that Europe can get out of the lost decade before it turns into two decades," Sinai said.

    ECB President Mario Draghi hinted last week that the central bank could take such a move in coming months.

    Among the economists' other consensus views:

    — The Fed's low-rate policies have already inflated a bubble in at least one asset group. Most of the economists who see a bubble think one exists in high-yield corporate bonds, often called "junk" bonds, and in emerging-market debt. Others detect bubbles in small social-media or biotechnology companies or in the stock market as a whole. On Monday, the leading stock-market averages set record highs.

    — Inflation will remain generally below the Fed's long-term target rate of 2 percent this year but will consistently exceed that rate next year. Only if inflation were to reach or top 3 percent do the economists think the Fed should immediately raise rates regardless of how the economy was faring.

    — Sluggish wage growth is slowing the U.S. economy. The most commonly cited factor is that too many people still lack jobs — including many who aren't being counted as unemployed because they've stopped looking for work. And pay growth won't start to significantly exceed inflation until next year at the earliest. Flat wages are "a limiting factor for consumer spending growth and a major restraint for the housing recovery," said Scott Brown, chief economist at financial services firm Raymond James.

    Zandi said his concerns about the Fed's interest-rate policy stem in part from the Fed's own outlook. The Fed forecasts that the unemployment rate will fall to between 5.1 percent and 5.5 percent by the end of 2016 from the current 6.2 percent. The Fed thinks unemployment at that level would likely enable workers to demand higher pay and therefore lift inflation above the Fed's long-range target. Yet Fed officials expect the interest rate it controls to remain below historical norms until a year later.

    That suggests that Yellen is willing to risk letting inflation run above the Fed's 2 percent target to try to boost growth and hiring, Zandi said.

    Though inflation won't likely get out of hand, Zandi said, the approach carries risks. If bond investors concluded that inflation would remain above the Fed's target for an extended period, they would likely demand higher interest rates. That would raise borrowing costs throughout the economy, including for mortgages and auto and business loans.

    In a speech Friday at the Fed's annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Yellen stressed that the Great Recession upended traditional measures of the job market, such as the unemployment rate and wage gains. Policymakers must now consider a wider variety of gauges to determine when to raise rates, she said.

    That complexity also makes economists nervous. Many noted that the Fed has kept its short-term benchmark rate near zero for six years and has bought trillions in Treasurys to lower longer-term rates. Neither action had ever before been taken by the Fed. And it's not clear when the Fed will start to unwind all that stimulus.

    "It was uncharted waters on the way in; it's going to be uncharted waters on the way out," said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial.

    The walk-in cash trade was really boring today with little action and the phones were less than average. I can say without hesitation that these markets are suffering from a great lack of interest as the summer draws to its traditional end – Labor Day - which brings me to a point our employees will be interested in – this Monday (September 1st) we will be closed for Labor Day. Given the recent jobs information I remain hopeful there is still something to celebrate.   

    The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “2” for Wednesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 3) (last Wed – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 3) (Monday – 2) (Tuesday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.

    Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional. It also includes the various forms of payment and includes bank wire instructions. And you can now see your actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.

    When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).

    About shipping information – when buying or selling your rep will walk you through your current mailing information. Thanks for keeping us up to date if you have moved.

    Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. Live pricing moves all the buy/sell product prices on a real time basis. Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. When buying from us remember if you exceed $10,000 in cash (the real green kind) a Federal Form is necessary.

    In addition to our freshly ground organic coffee offered visitors throughout the day we have added cold bottled water, cokes and Snapple. We have also added fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits – which seem to grow when things get this quiet. And it does not help that the world famous Randy’s Donuts is just down the street. 

    Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.

    Thanks for reading from your friends at GoldDealer.com and enjoy your evening.

    Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

    Harry Johnson At GoldDealer Is A Valuable Employee

    Last updated 5 days ago

    • on GoldDealer.com
    • Your employee Harry Johnson was most helpful to me in assuring me that my shipment of gold to you would arrive safely despite the USPS delays. A large amount of money (for me) was involved and I was getting worried that something wrong had occurred. Harry quelled my fears (he would make an excellent psychiatrist) and when the shipment... More

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