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Gold Moves Lower as the Greek Drama Continues

Commentary for Tuesday, June 30, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $7.00 at $1171.50 on the Comex today. Hard to believe gold is moving lower as the Greek drama continues. To add insult to injury they missed today’s deadline payment of 1.6 billion euros to creditors as the hopeful claimed that the default would not be official until midnight.

There are some who claim gold sales have been strong in Europe over this mess but I find this hard to believe – the roof is falling in relative to debt default and gold remains weak.

Of course the technical picture for gold has been negative and the dollar has been strong so I guess I should be thankful for small blessings – we could be doing worse.

There is also a dynamic which is particular to the gold market and should not be forgotten. If default actually happens meaning there is real debt repudiation it might push either banks or bond holders into selling gold simply to raise cash.

Finally consider that gold may yet surprise – if during this entire ruckus we fail to break-down the $1140.00 level it would be very bullish and more would begin to believe gold has bottomed in the low $1100.00 range.

Silver closed down $0.11 at $15.55. Our silver bullion sales remain strong and even with a few large 100 oz bar sellers today our book remained relatively flat – this means that after all is said and done Kenny did not sell any excess inventory into the marketplace – we needed all that we purchased and more because our physical silver bullion sales remain strong.

Also of some note are 90% silver bag premiums – under usual conditions (meaning there is no big push on these bags) the premium over spot is $1.50. When the action heats up - the selling premium moves higher but so does the buying premium. We are selling $1000 face 90% bags today at $2.40 over spot delivered – granted a higher premium but our bid price is also higher. This is exactly how a real marketplace works to provide product to the public.

Some dealers are claiming $1.50 premium over spot but are sold out of product. Like my Mom used to say “My pork chops are really cheap when there is nothing in the case”. Be careful of bogus low selling premiums when the claiming dealer cannot deliver – he either does not understand the market (doubtful) or he is taking a shot with your money hoping premiums will decrease (always a ticket to disaster in the bullion business).

Platinum closed down $3.00 at $1078.00 and palladium was up $6.00 at $672.00. The price of rhodium moved lower today – down $50.00 at $850.00. The 1 oz Baird Rhodium bar is $980.00 delivered and there is some action considering recent discounts – rhodium is trading at about half of the levels seen earlier in this year – so like platinum it’s bargain time for longer term investors.

Even with all the huff and puff it’s hard for me to get too excited over gold’s prospects relative to the Greek default. I appreciate the possible contagion problem but I think this is overstated unless countries like Spain and Portugal join this club. If this ugly debt situation was presented during the original 2008 financial collapse we could have expected giant fireworks but this late in the financial recovery game it seems tired. Still there are some who believe a Greek exit will expose currency and debt corruption – this more serious view is not mine but is presented below for consideration.

This from Sharps Pixley / Seeking Alfa - Irrational Greek Government May Encourage Europeans to Purchase Gold - The European situation changed dramatically over the weekend and this had caused me to change my position on gold. On June 15, I wrote an article titled "Should We Buy Gold On Grexit Concern?" as a reply to a reader's indecision on whether I said buy gold on Grexit because gold is negatively correlated with the expected USD strength but it is also a hedge against financial instability. My assumption back then was that the EU would be able to contain the situation with Greece and hence the financial instability function would be superseded by the rising value of the USD.

After all, the majority of Greeks want to stay within the EU and this was expected to constrain the Syriza government. The current Greek government is expected to make some loud demands for concessions while the EU is expected to push against it for further reforms before dispensing the bailout money to keep Greece in the family. There will be a lot of heat and news stories back home so that both sides can show that they have pressed for the best possible deal. In short, business as usual was expected as it had been for the past 5 months with negotiations being held close to the deadline.

Moot Referendum - However Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras pulled an unexpected move that derailed the entire negotiation process. Tsipras called for a referendum for the Greek people to decide if they would accept the EU's bailout proposal or not. Before we get into the details and reactions to this referendum, consider the simple issue of time. The deadline for the Greek bailout would be on June 30 and yet the Tsipras referendum is on July 5. In other words, the referendum is moot for the simple reason that there will be no bailout proposal to consider simply because Greece had already defaulted!

This referendum had effectively dashed hopes that a last minute agreement can be reached in time by the June 30 deadline. Perhaps the Greek gamble is that the EU would accommodate them by extending the deadline for another 5 days. However this is merely wishful thinking as the sudden nature of the referendum insulted the powerful politicians who had to put their careers on the line in order to carry out the negotiations in the first place against the growing impatience from their people back home.

This is how the Financial Times reported the reaction from 2 key negotiators from the ground. The Chairman of the committee of eurozone Finance Ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, was quoted as saying:

"That is a sad decision for Greece. It has closed the door on further talks while the door was still open, in my mind."

The German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, took the hardline on this topic and was quoted to have effectively closed negotiations with Greece over the matter with the following quote:

"The negotiations are clearly ended, if I understand Mr. Tsipras correctly, we have no grounds for further discussions."

There are other angry comments on the group as the various European finance ministers realized that they had wasted a lot of effort on bailout negotiations. There is no need to quote them as the Wolfgang and Dijsselbloem comments had made it clear that this is the end of negotiations and Grexit is only a matter of time.

Capital Controls - As of June 28, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to supply $89 billion euros of Emergency Lending Assistance (NYSE:ELA) to the Greek Central Bank according to this Marketwatch report. However in light of the referendum, the ECB would likely cut off its ELA funding by June 30.

While the ECB is committed to keep Greek banks open temporarily, there had been a massive run on the banks as seen in the long lines that formed once the referendum announcement were made. By the end of the week, Tsipras had to announce capital controls which limited ATM withdrawals to $60 euros a day. In addition, Greek banks are now closed for an indefinite period of time. This is on top of the $5 billion euros that left Greece in April 2015 alone.

This capital control announcement had triggered a decision by Greek neighbor, Macedonia to order its bank to pull out its money from Greek's bank. This is a sign that Greece's weaker neighbors are currently actively taking steps to insulate themselves from the potential fallout effects from Grexit. It should be noted that 20% of Greek banks asset are based in Macedonia.

Conclusion - In other words, the situation on the ground is rapidly spiraling out of control and a Grexit is virtually guaranteed. In this situation, it is entirely likely that financial instability would engulf Europe even if the Troika absorbed the majority of Greek's bad debt. The irrational nature of the Syriza government would multiply the likelihood of a disorderly Grexit as Syriza might impose more than just capital controls.

Surprise is the trademark of the Syriza government and this has been pushed to the next level. Perhaps the root of the problem is that the twin wishes of the Greek people, which is to stay in Europe and to avoid the pain of austerity, are mutually exclusive to each other. They must either stay in the eurozone and take the pain of austerity or they can leave the euro and be free of the austerity demands from their creditors through default. They cannot have both and the fact that they want to have their cake and eat it, too, is one of the primary reasons for chaos.

They are threatening to unravel the whole European project and it would encourage other debtor nations such as Spain and Italy to leave the eurozone. For this reason, there is likely to be legitimate demand for physical gold all over Europe. This can be a potential short term demand for gold as its price is likely to get more expensive despite the rising USD. However the fact that events had been pushed to their climax would mean that we would likely to have a conclusion to the Grexit issue soon.

Over the longer run, a successful resolution would be conducive to the economic development of Europe. Over the medium term, that would reduce the demand for gold on the assumption that the Grexit effect can be contained with Greece itself and not spread to the rest of Europe.

The walk in cash trade was busy but not hectic today – surprisingly the phones were busy all day and the public continues to buy silver bullion in its various forms.

The 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 6” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 6) (Monday – 6). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Tips for Safely Handling Your Gold Coins

Tips for Safely Handling Your Gold CoinsUnderstanding how to handle your precious metals is an important aspect of collecting gold coins. The better you care for your coins, the more valuable they will be when you put up your gold coins for sale. To help you look after your investment, here are some tips for safely handling your gold coins.

Prepare Your Hands
You will not want to alter the quality or appearance of your gold coins, so it is crucial to handle them with care. Some individuals use cotton gloves when handling gold coins, but this can elevate your risk of dropping them. Clean your hands with a hand sanitizer before handling your gold coins. Remember to pay special attention to your fingertips, as the oils from your fingertips can make their way onto coins and cause serious damage over time. Also avoid scented hand sanitizers that might leave trace chemicals behind.

Find a Surface
Dropping a coin may be a coin collector’s nightmare, but the unfortunate reality is that accidents do happen. Fortunately there are ways of preventing these accidents from leading to damage and blemishes. Find a safe surface to work over when you are handling your gold coins. A cloth material or a felt coin tray can be excellent in these situations. Dropping your gold coin onto a felt cloth is much less risky than dropping it onto the ground.

Avoid the Face
Every coin collector should know that the proper handling technique is to hold a coin by its edges. Whenever you touch the face of a coin you risk adding blemishes that can take away from the value of the coin.

California Numismatic Investments is your source for gold coins. We offer competitive national pricing and secure shipping on all gold orders. Visit our website to see our gold coins for sale, or call us at (800) 225-7531 to speak with one of our certified gold dealers.

Gold Reacts to Greece and the Dollar but Remains Indecisive

Commentary for Monday, June 29, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up a modest $5.60 on the Comex today at $1178.50 - so a little excitement over the weekend and into domestic trading on Monday – very little. The overnight Hong Kong and London markets were a bit firmer but nothing to write home about – but there was weakness in stocks both here and abroad.

So what does this mean to the price of gold? Actually it should mean a great deal more especially with the press coverage of people standing in line trying to get money out of Greek ATM’s. Their banking system is closed today and probably will remain so for the next week. Depositors are limited to withdrawals of $70.00 per day so what a mess.

With no resolution as when Greece can expect more borrowed money and little in the way of debt reform creditors might embrace it’s no wonder the markets are a bit strained. But Greece is not the real problem – it’s the idea of a debt default contagion within smaller EU countries which is creating all the commotion.

Suppose Spain or Portugal decide they want better terms? Or some other country decides that Greece being bad is a good financial strategy? Puerto Rico announced today that it cannot pay its “international debts” – so the bigger picture is more important – if the only problem was Greece it would not mean much to the price of gold.

Still today’s price action in gold was subdued to say the least – what happened to all that “safe-haven” buying everyone should be talking about?

To see why there was not a bigger bang in the price of gold understand that first the bigger financial markets are not as worried as the press might imagine. And second, the dollar capped any possible gains early on because under such circumstances the dollar is king if the financial markets are looking for a place to ride out the storm.

Once they learned that Europe was not going to blow-up the dollar reversed direction considerably. The Dollar Index last closed at 96.18 and today’s range was 94.68 through 96.37 – it is now around 94.84. So when the news of “no deal” was announced the dollar moved to 96.37 higher than its last close and when the Tsunami began looking more like small surf it weakened considerably. The ride top to bottom was pretty amazing – more than 1.69 points so the conclusion you should draw is that big trouble in Europe or the US will push the hot money into the dollar not into gold – at least for the present.

China announced today it would lower its key lending rate to stimulate its economy. This alone should have created some action in the price of gold – it did not.

The reason is that gold buzz is considerably lacking – this can be seen by looking at Gold’s Moving Averages – 50 DMA ($1191.00) – the 100 DMA ($1193.00) and the 200 DMA ($1205.00) – the close today ($1178.50) is still below all three hanging the momentum players out to dry.

Silver closed down $0.07 at $15.66. Now this is not exactly a blow-out low number – things could get cheaper as they say but what is interesting is that sales of silver bullion products are hot. The Greek situation is not responsible and while this current trading range below $16.00 is considered the beginning of the “sweet spot” for physical investors we have been here before – several times.

So what is different? Can’t point to anything out of the ordinary, but the physical across the counter sales of $1000.00 90% bags, silver bars and Monster Boxes are unusually strong.

If you watch the charts carefully you might consider this – Silver broke below a rising trend line last week and is now within about $0.30 of the $15.34 low close on the year.

Platinum closed unchanged at $1081.00 and palladium was down $12.00 at $666.00.

If you have not heard of Gary North you should have by now – he has been around a long time and his views are very conservative. I can’t say exactly when I began reading his views about the dangers of Keynesian economics and the importance of sound money but it was probably in the early 1970’s – an era which carved out the foundation of positive American sentiment relative to real gold and silver as money.

Real hard core physical buyers of gold and silver bullion love to tell stories of when it was still possible to take 90% silver coins out of circulation - and better still of owning gold in the US before it was legal (1975).

Actually the notion that all Americans followed the government gold edit is a myth – if they wanted to own gold there were many ways to do it publically and it was accomplished in most coin stores in the country.

At any rate my recollection of how important what Gary North had to say came into being probably between 1969 and 1973. His conservative views have not changed much so take some time to read - Keynes, the Great Depression, and the Coming Great Default - (Gary North - June 26, 2015) - Ideas have consequences, but not in a social vacuum. There are no social vacuums.

Ideas that are held by a minority of fringe academics or polemicists sometimes become the foundations of victorious social movements after existing social institutions are undermined by a social crisis.

Optimism and Social Revolution - There seems to be an inherent optimism in the thinking of most members of the human race. It is the source of men's sacrifice in the present for the sake of the future. We think the future is going to get better, and therefore it is worth sacrificing present consumption for the sake of future consumption. This is the basis of thrift. This is the basis of expanded capital in our society.

Basic to the success of every social revolution in the West since 1640 has been the doctrine of progress. Each revolution offers hope for the future. Usually, these have been short on details of the transition between now and the new utopia, but there is hope.

The free market was such an idea. Adam Smith was the major promoter. His disciples extended his vision of the wealth of nations. The timing was perfect: 1776. That was about the time that the Industrial Revolution began its transformation of the West and then the world.

Beginning around 1800, and limited to the Eastern shore of the United States and the British Isles, compound economic growth began. By 1820, the economic transformation was leaving irrefutable historical evidence of this transformation. Economic historians debate as to the causes of this growth, but it had never been seen before. By 1850, the world was very different. A series of inventions transformed modern agriculture, modern transportation, and communications. This was visible to everybody by 1851. That was the year of the great London exhibition. Anyone who attended that exhibition realized that the world had fundamentally changed since 1800.

We are now over two centuries into this process. It is almost impossible for us to think of a society made up of human beings who are systematically pessimistic about the future. What began in the English-speaking world of the Atlantic Coast has now spread into the villages of India and China. There is almost nowhere left on earth in which optimism regarding the economic future is not a fundamental presupposition of every village, every tribe, and every family. Economic reality finally caught up with human optimism, and then raced ahead.

There has been only one period in which economic growth has stagnated for more than a decade since 1800. That was the Great Depression, which was followed by World War II. Output of almost all goods and services declined in the 1930's, and then the war destroyed much of the output of the first half of the 1940's. This destruction was systematic: bombs, armies, and battles destroyed the output of military factories. Both sides were committed to the destruction of any economic growth on the other side. With the exception of the United States, all nations that were involved in the conflict suffered direct economic contraction as a result of the war. But there was full employment for the survivors -- at below-market wages. There was central planning on an unprecedented scale: the ration-book economy.

The Keynesian Revolution - What was most significant about the 1930's was not the fact that there was economic stagnation for a decade. What was most significant was the transformation of the thinking of Western civilization. The intellectuals changed their minds; the voters changed their minds.

In Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy, in Great Britain, in Japan, and in the United States, there was a shift of opinion away from the free market in favor of government economic planning. The supreme mark of this transformation was the acceptance of John Maynard Keynes' unreadable book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, which was published in 1936. A new generation of younger economists adopted this book and its outlook, which prevails today. The fascist economic idea of an alliance between government and business became almost universally accepted.

There had always been a tendency for special-interest groups to seek government subsidies. Mercantilism, 1550-1800, was a manifestation of this worldview. But, from an academic point view, economists after Adam Smith were generally not committed to anything like mercantilism. There were some who were, but they were not dominant.

There was always an appeal in the United States for federal finances and subsidies, and the mark of this was Sen. Henry Clay's so-called American system. Abraham Lincoln was an early convert. But the size of the federal government in the overall economy was so small that these interventions were mainly limited to roads, canals, and transportation projects. In other words, there was a commitment to the government-business alliance, but there was not much government to be allied to. This changed in the 1930's.

I am probably the only person who has ever noticed the following, but it bears repeating. The Macmillan publishing company in Great Britain published three books analyzing the causes of the Great Depression. The first one was written by a disciple of Ludwig von Mises, Lionel Robbins. He was probably the most prominent British economist favoring the free market in the 1930's. He was a colleague of F. A. Hayek at the London School of Economics, who was also a defender of the free market, but who was an Austrian. Both of them at the time were followers of Mises. Robbins' book was titled simply, The Great Depression. It was published in 1934. One year after Keynes's book, in 1937, Macmillan published another economic analysis of the depression, which was also basically a defensive of the Austrian theory of the business cycle. That book was titled, Banking and the Business Cycle. Both of these books are available for downloading or purchase on the website of the Mises Institute. They are both quite readable. Keynes' book was not readable. Yet so devastated was Robbins by the depression that he repudiated his own book in the 1940's. It is Keynes' book that remains in print. The other two books were essentially forgotten by 1940.

The modern fascist economy that dominates the West, meaning an economy sustained by central bank counterfeiting and central government fiscal deficits, was born during the Great Depression. It was conceived much earlier, but it took the Great Depression to provide what we can legitimately call labor pains. Most people today cannot conceive of a world without government intervention, central banking, government guarantees of all kind, and so forth. The Federal Register turns out approximately 80,000 pages of fine print regulations every year. This regulatory order is cumulative. Most of these regulations stay on the books. They are not repealed by the bureaucrats; they are amplified by new rules.

Despite the fact that most economists say they are free marketers, only a handful of Austrian economists favor the shutting down of the Federal Reserve System. Yet in 1900, most economists in the United States were not in favor of a central bank. Institution by institution, crisis by crisis, fascist economics increases its support among academics, and it increases its support among the masses. Social Security and Medicare are simply the most visible manifestations of this outlook. The public is completely in favor of both programs.

I am arguing here that a sustained economic crisis always calls forth radical new ways of explaining the crisis. These new ways are always extensions of previous opinions. But a new generation of economists will adopt the new format of the previous opinions, including errors in some cases. That is the lesson of the Great Depression. Keynes simply baptized what politicians and central bankers were already doing.

Keynesian economics is incoherent. That is our great advantage. The defenders of Keynesian economics, when standing in front of a crowd to explain the system, proclaim its goals and describe its interventions, but they cannot explain how these interventions have in fact created wealth. The system is incoherent. This is why The General Theory is invoked but never assigned. Austrian School economists still assign Mises' 1920 essay, "Economic Calculation in the Socialist Commonwealth." It is readable.

The great advantage Keynesians they have is this: people find it difficult to believe in the theory first proclaimed in the 18th century, namely, that social evolution, including economic progress, is based on individual decision-making within a free market setting. The idea that coherence grows out of individual decisions, and that there is no central organizing entity, is difficult for people to believe. Adam Smith correctly named this system of unplanned providence: the invisible hand.

On the one hand, most people believe in God. On the other hand, most people believe in free will. They trust in God's providence, but they also want personal liberty. They want to believe in the free market, but they also want to believe that there is an overarching coherence to it that is supplied by God. Economists don't believe this, but most people are not economists. Economists believe, as Adam Smith believed and Adam Ferguson believed, that society is the result of human action, but not the result of human design. It takes enormous faith to believe this, and most people are not capable of enormous faith. They want to believe in God, but they don't quite believe that the free market is God's way of bringing coherence to the world. It is easier for most people to believe that politicians and bureaucrats provide this social and economic coherence in general, despite repeated failures of such planning in specific cases. It is hard to believe in the coherence provided by the invisible hand of the free market's profit-and-loss system. People want to see a more visible hand. This has been true down through the ages, from Pharaoh's pyramids to Washington's pyramids.

This quest for a visible hand initially favored faith in socialism, but now that the socialist faith has collapsed, as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, this leaves only Keynesianism. Keynesianism is in fact incoherent, and nobody can really explain it, but that is true of every doctrine of God. It is a question of how much mystery most people can tolerate. At some point, this issue will arise: how much economic pain they are willing to tolerate.

It is easier to believe in the free market than in Keynesianism, but only if you understand economic logic -- causation through competitive bidding. But most people do not understand economic logic. This is why they support tariffs and other interventions by the state into the market.

So, in the back of most people's minds in 1929 was faith in some kind of god. As long as the money kept flowing, and economy kept growing, people believed that the boom would last forever. This was basic to their optimism. They weren't sure exactly why the boom was taking place, but they figured that it was forever. They wanted to believe that good times would last. But good times did not last.

The Great Depression was the great stumbling block for optimism. It undermined faith in Western political liberty and Western economic liberty. The Fascists and the National Socialists took advantage of this. The Fabian socialist movement took advantage of this in Great Britain. The New Deal took advantage of this in the United States. Lenin (Ulyanov) had already taken advantage of this from 1917 to 1924, and Stalin (Djugishvili) was taking advantage of it.

Conclusions - New ideas alone do not change the minds of most people. This includes intellectuals. There is usually a crisis that serves as a catalyst for changing the minds of millions of people. Ideas that had been floating around in the world of intellectuals then get applied by a new generation of intellectuals, and simultaneously they are also applied by politicians. This is what creates revolutions.

It is the job of those intellectuals who favor a new outlook to work on the details of this outlook until such time as a revolutionary figure gains political support, and some new apologist for the revolutionary worldview comes to the forefront and begins to gain disciples. The power of ideas alone does not produce revolutions. There has to be a social setting to allow the catalyst of revolutionary ideas to produce a social and political transformation.

This is why the Great Default of all of the Western welfare states is going to create tremendous opportunities for new ideas to come to the forefront. It is going to undermine and ultimately destroy the Keynesian worldview. This is a great opportunity for younger anti-Keynesians to stake their claims to what appears to be a played-out mine. That is why I outlined my Keynes project.

The body of intellectual materials favoring the free market is vastly larger today than it was in 1940, 1950, or 1960. These older materials went out of print. But today, because of PDF page images and the World Wide Web, the Mises Institute has posted hundreds of volumes. In addition, there is a constant stream of new materials being produced online. We await only the catalyst of the Great Default to produce conditions necessary for the transformation of these academic ideas into effective political programs, especially at the local level. Decentralization is the wave of the future. Free trade and the World Wide Web will supply the benefits of internationalism. The global bureaucrats will not.

When the Keynesian medicine cabinet is visibly bare, people will want explanations of why it is bare and why the economy is sick. Most of all, people will want suggestions for how the cupboard can be filled up with something that heals sickness. I am working on this. So are thousands of other writers. It is not 1970 any longer. The print publishing oligopoly is dying.

Ideas have consequences, but not in a social vacuum.

The walk in cash trade was average but the phones were crazy in the silver bullion area – so for some reason – which escapes me the physical trade seems to have woken up and like this closing number ($15.66).

The 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 6” for Monday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Tuesday – 6) (last Wednesday – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday – 6). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Firm but Unconvincing - Greek Talks Continue this Saturday

Commentary for Friday, June 26, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $1.40 on the Comex today at $1172.90 – so gold continues to trade very quietly. Yesterday we closed at $1171.50 so in two consecutive days of trading the spread is $2.50!

Gold was initially pressured lower by a stronger dollar and touched $1167.00 before reversing to close just slightly higher. Actually the Dollar Index is relatively flat on the week settling in around 95.00. Exciting isn’t it? Greece is about to blow up, the EU is cranking up the printing presses, everyone seems to be worried about China and gold goes to sleep.

As far as Greece is concerned there will be another “special” meeting this Saturday with parties involved (translate - creditors) and all parties at this point are frustrated. This is the first time since this mess began that there is a possibility Greece might exit stage right from the European Union. I thought this impossible – but if it does happen it will support gold to some degree but at this point it will not be the big kick-start traders are expecting. Again the 1.6 billion euros is due June 30 th but as usual some are now suggesting this date might be negotiable – see what I mean?

For my money gold is now entering the “over-sold” zone – look for a bounce to higher ground if we continue to drift much lower. There is anecdotal evidence to back this up as our sales of PAMP gold bars continue to move higher.

Silver closed down $0.07 at $15.73 and our physical silver bullion business continues to deliver product – not much fanfare but steady.

Platinum closed down $3.00 at $1081.00 and palladium was off $1.00 at $678.00. Car news was solid today so I expect prices in all the PGM’s will firm.

Everyone is making a big deal over the 17% sell-off in Shanghai Index – China stocks have hit a rough patch. But is this the end of the world – the scenario here is that too much of the Chinese financial model is hidden and too much is promoted with either borrowed money or money created through the Bank of China. All of that is true but the Chinese growth rate is the world standard bearer – 7% or 8% is no problem. And they have been calling for a crash in the manufacturing giant for years but it still continues strong.

Also consider that they are sitting on a ton of cash – the result of selling everything to everyone. At any rate the “crash” idea because of the sudden weakness in the Shanghai Index does not make sense – but if it did lead to further problems this could create demand for gold bullion.

The other side of the coin is that because the Shanghai Index has recently moved lower the gold bullion demand from this sector has been weaker.

This from CNN Money – China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropped by 7.4% on Friday, as hundreds of individual stocks lost 10%, the index's daily downward limit. The Shenzhen Composite, which is heavy on tech stocks, closed down 7.9%.

The dramatic moves could further unnerve investors, who are already reeling from last week's dismal performance by China stocks. The Shanghai Composite is now solidly in correction territory, having fallen 12% over the past five trading sessions as investors grow increasingly wary of a possible stocks bubble.

Even with recent losses, the Shanghai Composite has surged 30% this year, and the Shenzhen Composite is up 77%, easily making it the world's top-performing index.

This is interesting from Chuck Butler (EverBank) – “I was reading an article on www.bullionstar.com last night that was submitted by Koos Jansen, regarding his reasons why he believes the withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) represent Gold that China is accumulating. I did like something he said about the reasons why China would also be buying Gold on the International Markets. Let's let Koos Jansen tell you. "Gold sold on the SGE is priced in renminbi and the PBOC with large multi-currency reserves may rather use U.S. dollars than purchasing domestically priced Gold. The International Market would have a lot more liquidity too." I've told you for a few years that I thought China was using their Treasure Chest of U.S. dollars to buy Gold. So, this news comes as no surprise to me, or should you, but it does confirm what I've said.”

Our Patented Employee Survey– Gold's Direction Next Week?

Of course it's not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think – 7 believe gold will be higher next week – 4 think gold will be lower and 2 believe it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey– Gold's Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 42 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 41 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 17 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – June 22 – Jun 26

The walk in cash trade exploded around Noon but the phones were average most of the day. An interesting mix going on – the Monster Boxes went flying out of here to the cash trade, there was a decent amount of small selling by the public but no large sellers.

This week’s price spread and interest was very dull. Next week might produce trading fireworks however as these quiet days and tight trading ranges should not be ignored - one way or the other the market is always saying something.

Keep in mind that 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 6” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Monday – 5) (Tuesday – 6) (Wednesday – 4) (Thursday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your weekend.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Virtually Unchanged - Unimpressed with Greek Problems

Commentary for Thursday, June 25, 2015 ( www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $1.10 today on the Comex at $1171.50 in very quiet trading.

Considering the technical picture for gold is negative it’s interesting to me that this market does not feel “heavy”. Traders for sure are undecided and gold for now is ignoring the Greek default situation – probably because they feel some short-term solution will be cobbled together and Greece will not exit the European Union.

Crude oil has been flat around $60.00 a barrel since late April – supporting the price of gold and the Dollar Index is also flat – yesterday’s close was 95.28 and the range today has been 95.09 through 95.51 – we are now trading at 95.25.

Gold’s Moving Averages would add to the negative technical picture – 50 DMA ($1192.00) – 100 DMA ($1195.00) and 200 DMA ($1205.00. The close today ($1171.50) is below all three technical indicators so the price of gold should feel more defensive – but there are many counter trends worldwide and gold bullion remains a reliable option.

Even gold pessimists consider the $1140.00 number formidable but the reasoning that we are trading at the lower end of the range does not excite even the choir. In other words “no excitement” is equal to “no buzz”. And if the gold market can’t get excited over Greece or renewed quantitative easing within the European Union or US debt that exceeds $17 trillion dollars it will remain at least range-bound.

It’s not that gold’s decline has not been great enough - moving from $1888.00 in August of 2011 to $1171.00 in June of 2015. China and India buy this range with no problem – they may pull back trying to exact a better price but when support shows they are back with both hands.

Our across the counter experience has been that they decrease or stop buying when gold moves above $1200.00 an ounce - and when this happens they are willing to wait for better prices.

The problem with this lower end of the trading range is that it presents a “slow-grind” to dealers who supply real gold bullion to real people who really want to own the metals. It’s not that price makes no difference in this range – everyone wants a better deal. But as dips become less frequent and the $1140.00 bottom holds, the action simply slows down.

Silver closed down $0.04 at $15.80. There is some technical analysis which suggests the price of silver may break down into $13.00 range – it was trading around $13.98 in May of 2009. I find this extreme – technically silver looks worse than gold but the physical market seems much tougher in $14.00/$15.00 range. Our physical walk-in cash trade explodes when we approach $14.00 and there has always been talk of silver price manipulation and naked short positions held by the large commodity houses. The theory being that there simply is not enough real silver available to cover all the paper action.

Platinum closed up $10.00 at $1084.00 and palladium was down $16.00 at $679.00. The difference between the price of platinum and the price of gold is narrowing – platinum now trades at $87.00 less than the price of gold.

This is our usual Thursday Chicago Mercantile Exchange report covering the last 5 trading days – so we are looking at the trading volume numbers for the “August” Gold contract: Thursday 6/18 (273,941) - Friday 6/19 (274,752) - Monday 6/22 (271,465) - Tuesday 6/23 (278,660) - Wednesday 6/24 (282,525). These numbers remain in the higher end of the range.

This from Jan Harvey (Reuters) - LONDON, June 25 (Reuters) - Gold steadies after four-day drop, awaits news on Greece - Gold steadied on Thursday after four days of losses as traders took to the sidelines to await further news on Greece's negotiations with its creditors, with caution over the metal's longer-term outlook weighing on interest.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to carry out the first U.S. interest rate increase in nearly a decade, boosting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, has pressured gold this year, keeping it in a narrow range.

Spot gold was at $1,174.00 an ounce at 1339 GMT, little changed from the previous session, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up 30 cents at $1,173.20. Spot prices earlier hit a two-week low of $1,171.02.

Gold has held largely between $1,160 and $1,230 since mid-March, struggling to break higher despite an ostensibly bullish rise in tensions over Greece.

"We would have expected gold to trade much higher, given all the issues in Greece," Commerzbank analyst Daniel Briesemann said. "It's being kept in check by an ongoing withdrawal by speculative financial investors. If this doesn't stop, the gold price won't be able to recover."

Gold has faced additional pressure from a stronger dollar, which hit a two-week high against the euro earlier this week before steadying on Thursday. European shares trimmed early losses in afternoon trading as talks began in Brussels on a financing-for-reforms deal with Greece to avert a possible debt default.

Greece's international creditors put a final cash-for-reform proposal to euro zone finance ministers on Thursday in a showdown with Athens after lengthy negotiations failed to yield an agreed plan to avert an imminent default.

"We've been hearing about the Greek story for so long that it's no longer big news. People are frustrated with the lack of performance on the part of gold," said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS.

"We attempted this week to break $1,200 and failed, and that doesn't look so good. With gold, either people wait for it to go much lower so it's a bargain, or for it to get more expensive (so it has investment value). Now, people are waiting for lower numbers to buy."

Silver was down 0.6 percent at $15.83 an ounce, spot platinum was up 0.2 percent at $1,073.24 an ounce, and spot palladium was down 2.4 percent at $679.63 an ounce.

Palladium fell to its lowest since July 2013 at $673.47 an ounce earlier, having broken through key chart support last week. Prices have slid 14 percent so far this year, hurt by perceptions that supply of the white metal is plentiful.”

So is everyone tired of hearing about when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and also when the Greeks will clear up that pesky problem of paying back all the money?

I know it’s easy to get cynical in this business but with little movement on either of these important questions and it being the summer-time too – what other considerations should we consider.

Of course – the Dollar Index matters the most but that too requires patience. That’s why when another commentator decides to be funny it’s appreciated by everyone. Gary Wagner knows plenty about trading these markets and I never miss reading his work – this latest post relates to zombies and should be emailed to any friends who wonder about gold’s price direction.

This from Gary Wagner (Kitco/thegoldforcast.com) was on target. Zombies Of The Fed Part 543 At Your Local Financial Theater Now – “It’s already time to focus again on the possibilities surrounding a Fed interest-rate hike. Yes, it’s like a zombie. Cut it, burn it, run away from it, bury it… it keeps showing up. (Maybe that’s more like your aunt and uncle from Toledo, but you get the idea.)

The reason we say focus again is that first-quarter GDP data has been revised to reflect growth that was not as slow as previously recorded.

GDP fell at a 0.2% annualized rate in the quarter instead of the 0.7% contraction data reported last month. Consumer spending was revised up to 2.1 percent from the initial 1.8 percent.

This "will bode well for the 2015 [GDP] average and suggests Q2 was entered with better momentum than originally assumed," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. Of course, the Fed will look closely at this, number, and will be strongly influenced by what goes on in the second quarter that is now coming to a close. If it looks like there is a significant uptick in GDP growth, September as a lift off target date will again come onto our radar.

In spite of that, the euro gained ground on the dollar today, helping to mitigate a downside atmosphere loose in regular trading.

Concerns yet once more about Greece worked against American equities and the two mainland stock exchanges in Europe. Only Britain’s FTSE managed a bit of an up move.

Greece presented a new revenue-raising (tax) plan that is meant to reassure other euro zone countries of the country’s ability to meet its obligations. As of this afternoon in Europe, the plan had not been fully approved, or fully rejected. The sparring goes on unabated.

The Greeks simply won’t reform their pension programs, which are considered overly generous and beyond the means of the economically weak nation.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde spelled out her objections to French magazine Challenge today: “You can’t build a program just on the promise of improved tax collection, as we have heard for the past five years with very little result.”

Talks have not broken down but the danger signs are mounting. The twin scourges of the threat of a Fed rate hike and the unsettled Greek debt situation pushed bond yields lower today.

Crude oil slipped today. West Texas Intermediate and Brent North Sea were down 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. U.S. stocks were drawn down but stocks of gasoline and other oil-derived products were up, creating a push-pull scenario that may be present in the market till summer driving season in the northern hemisphere comes to close.

We’ve been touching on the S&P 500 recently and continue to do so. We’re awaiting a bigger move up from it. Perhaps a very big move. Right now, many traders and investors are standing by as they watch the Fed and Greek dramas unfold a little more. The S&P couldn’t seem to break through its recent record high because of the absence of that little bit of extra demand on the trading floor.

When that temporal resistance to the up move is cleared away, we’ll see the S&P jump higher. For those that enjoy our Hawaii 6.0 Articles and would like a deeper analysis focusing on the technical aspects of the market, I invite you to try our daily video newsletter. Simply use the link at the bottom of this report to sign up for a free trial. Wishing you, as always, good trading. “

The walk in trade was just average today. By the way – the reason we do a great deal of walk-in business is because product and cash are always available. The phones were on the slow side. Keep in mind that 4 th of July falls on a Saturday – so the CNI Building will be closed Friday July 3 rd for our Independence Day.

Also note that the trading markets, banks and post office will also be closed Friday – July 3 rd . Wishing you all a happy and safe 4 th of July.

The GoldDealer.com Unscientific Activity Scale is a “ 4” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Friday – 4) (Monday – 5) (Tuesday – 6) (Wednesday – 4). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers. The Activity Scale is weighted and is not necessarily real time – meaning we could be busy and see a low number – or be slow and see a high number. This is true because of the way our computer runs what we call the “book”. Our “activity” is better understood from a wider point of view. If the numbers are generally increasing – it would indicate things are busier – decreasing numbers over a longer period would indicate volume is moving lower.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and check to see if your computer will accept our email (no spam).

Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes - you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will even wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Sal is now in charge of our Facebook page and he is a self-proclaimed expert on gold conspiracy theory. He would be happy to respond to even the most ridiculous conspiracy assertion on our Facebook page so why not join the fun?

Thanks for reading – we appreciate your business and enjoy your evening.

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisers. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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