Commentary for Tuesday, April 8, 2014 – Gold closed up $10.70 at $1308.70 so we are once again above the important $1300.00 support level as the US dollar gets weaker and renewed Russian mischief escalates regional tension. It is hard to believe anyone will actually get in the Russian’s way (Ukraine, US or any regional forces) given the distribution of power in the region. Still talk of war on either side brings international attention and safe haven buying. I also think this is a tempest in a tea pot in that it’s unlikely they will use a heavy hand when it’s not necessary.
At any rate this safe haven buying does hold some sway but I think the dollar weakness is the prime mover. Our special on the French 20 Franc Rooster continues – $5.00 off the live site price. A good choice if you are looking for small barter gold coins. And note the new Specials Offers page under Independent Precious Metals Storage.
Silver followed gold up $0.15 at $20.04 and business here remains subdued with the exception of one large seller. We sold a lot of Austrian Silver Philharmonic 1 oz coins today.
Platinum continues interesting up $14.00 at $1440.00 and palladium higher by $8.00 at $775.00.
From Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) – “The Russia-Ukraine matter is back on the front burner of the market place. Pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine are becoming more active this week. This situation could flare up quickly and once again become a geopolitical flash point. Gold saw a bit of fresh safe-haven demand Tuesday due to the increase in Russia-Ukraine tensions. It’s not likely this matter will fade away and it’s more likely that it will escalate in the coming weeks. Such would be more bullish for the gold market. The U.S. dollar index is under strong selling pressure early this week as the greenback bulls are fading again. If the dollar index continues to sink it would remain a bullish underlying factor for the precious metals markets.”
This from Debbie Carlson (Kitco) – Adrian Day Looks For Recovery To Continue In Gold Market – The long-term fundamentals remain constructive for the gold market, says Adrian Day, president and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management. He cites inflows into exchange-traded products this year, a reversal from heavy outflows last year. Indian gold buying has picked up as the rupee strengthened, and there is potential for gold-buying restrictions to ease after Indian elections. Global monetary policy remains soft, Day continues. “Gold over-reacted to initial tapering; at minimum, we are unlikely to see any meaningful tightening of monetary policy any time soon,” he says. Central banks have resumed buying and the potential for geopolitical crises remain, perhaps in the South China Sea, Day says. And, he says he does not envision a severe economic slowdown in China. “All in all, then, the gold market looks quite strong and set to continue to recover this year,” Day says.
Adrian Day is a big player in the physical market and this type of commentary lifts everyone’s sprits. To be honest I am not that positive as long as gold remains range-bound. Short players still rule this market and while this push-pull dynamic is in place these bear market raids for short term profit hold a great deal of sway.
What he means by using the term “all in all” is that given all the negatives gold has suffered it could be much worse. So the glass is half full.
We differ on monetary policy however in that I think the Federal Reserve will continue its $10 billion incremental downsizing unless our economic wagon goes off the tracks. Will this throw gold off its game and create the bear scenario which will further test lows in this settling market? Not long ago I would have thought the chances of this happening are more than 50/50 but today I am not so sure given how long gold has wondered between $1200.00 and $1400.00. This length of time is important because as weeks turn into months and then years gold carves out a “real value” relative to fiat currency and investors feel more comfortable returning to the market. Let’s hope Adrian is right however because if gold continues to recover through 2014 the mind-set will have changed and once that happens there is plenty of money sitting on the sidelines watching for that confirmed bottom in gold.
In the old days you could walk into a good dealership, put down cash and walk away with product. This is still true with us and a few others but most of the volume business is done nationally using the internet. The gold and silver market is not government regulated like the stock market. Other than normal business licenses there aren’t any special requirements necessary to call yourself a precious metal dealer.
And the gold business has always had its share of dealers with no regard for your money. So don’t assume that nice dealer on the other end of the phone has your best interests in mind. The chances are literally 50/50 that you are talking to a “phone room” designed to part you from your money so let’s be careful.
To avoid problem dealers (there are at least two still out there) look for precious metal dealers who belong to ICTA (Industry Council for Tangible Assets) and the PNG (Professional Numismatists Guild). Dealers who are members of both organizations are held to a higher ethical, financial and professional standard. Look for memberships in both ICTA and PNG from any national dealer and avoid headaches.
The walk-in cash trade was off today and the phones were significantly slower than Monday. This “up and down” market will take its toll on the physical customer.
The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “3” for Tuesday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Wednesday – 5) (last Thursday – 4) (last Friday- 4) (Monday – 6). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.
On the new GoldDealer.com site: Comex closing prices are posted on the home page and individual product landing pages. Live pricing on the site moves all bullion products up or down during the day.
We reworked the All Bullion Products link on the home page. It now includes our Bid (blue) and Ask (green) prices. Premium quotes vary with product and look like this – “spot plus $15.00” or “spot plus $50.00” and bullion products list them under the live prices on their respective landing pages.
This makes product comparison simple and GoldDealer.com is the only precious metal site on the net with this transparency. Live Chat is doing well and new customers like setting up their own encrypted accounts. We recommend upgrading old browsers to Google Chrome (free/secure) especially as our site becomes more advanced.
Sign up for our daily Gold Newsletter on the Gold Newsletter page if you are so inclined. Also note that our old Specials Email list is not compatible with the new format so we have cleared all data.
If you want to be notified about specials please check the appropriate box on the site. Also note that the email list for the Gold Newsletter and our Specials List are separate.
Email confirmation using a PDF File when buying or selling is functional and includes payment instructions. You can now see the actual invoice or purchase order on your computer screen.
When you buy or sell please check to see if we have your current email on file and that your computer will accept our email (no spam).
Our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) are a big hit with the cash trade. This live stream moves all buy/sell prices so the cash buying or selling public can see the markets move on a real time basis. Our site uses the same pricing model so no more guessing.
Our best price guarantee (buying or selling) remains famous so call Kenny (1-800-225-7531) and get more money in your pocket. We guarantee your satisfaction and include our No-Nonsense Policy (NNP) which clients consider a welcomed extra. Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer. Thanks for reading and enjoy your evening.