Commentary for Thursday, March 13, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up a sleepy $1.90 today at $1372.20 as the market pauses still wondering about what will happen with the Russians and the people in the Crimea. The US has sent additional fighters to Poland but this is purely political and would not touch this hot potato under any circumstances. Gold ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) are active (GLD plus 6 tons since Friday) so speculative money might be looking for a quick place to land.
The premium on gold British Sovereigns is cheap if you are looking for smaller gold bullion coins.
Silver closed down $0.15 at $21.17 and was also very quiet. Baseball fans unit as the US Mint in San Francisco will soon produce a curved coin to celebrate the nation’s favorite pastime. This unique approach is the result of a new law (2012) the National Baseball Hall of Fame Commemorative Coin Act. The front of the coin is a baseball and the back is a baseball glove and the coin’s bowl shape makes them look like they belong together…pretty neat idea. The coins will be available in both silver and gold.
Platinum closed up $3.00 at $1479.00 and palladium closed up $2.00 at $778.00. The Platinum Group Metals have been getting great press, there are mining problems in South Africa and car sales are looking up so consider both of these sleepers. Also consider the Baird Rhodium Bar at $1225.00 which sounds very cheap.
From Peter Hug (Kitco) – Pause, But Buyers Present Thursday – The metals consolidate ahead of today’s retail sales and unemployment numbers, which will set the tone for early morning trading. The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against the Euro, approaching the 1.40 level, suggesting yet again that the Russian/Ukraine situation is not generating capital outflows from the continent. It may be suggesting that “big” money continues to seek value in the equity space and prefer the European risk to the lofty valuations in the U.S. market. This weekend will be a crucial time, as the referendum in Crimea is scheduled for Sunday, to vote on a separation from Ukraine to join Russia. The interim Ukraine government vows that the vote, in fact the process, is illegal and will not recognize a “yes to separate” vote, while the Russians insist that the current Kiev government is the result of a coup and not the will of the Russian speaking people in the Ukraine. Difficult to see anyone going into the weekend short and suspect any weakness in today’s metals markets, that may result in stronger U.S. economic data, will be met with safe haven buying.
Everyone knows this safe-haven theme has been pushing the price of gold higher since the first Russian troop movement in the area a few weeks ago. At first this presence was discounted but in short-order the traders sensed a growing concern which supported prices. I thought this process would unwind itself by now but the politics of the region have always been complicated. If the Russians use a heavy hand and the US decides to sanction all of Europe will suffer. This will not be good for stocks anywhere especially in the US and with continued troubles in China the storm clouds do not look good if cooler heads do not prevail. Still this conflict is not enough to support gold especially if China continues to melt and their need for commercial metals like aluminum and copper drag all metal prices lower.
The US stock market still looks frothy to me but there are plenty of commentators who believe the pent up demand for stocks is still there and will present itself as the weather clears. This top-heavy feel in stocks might push speculative money into Europe supporting the euro and pressuring the dollar lower. If this happens it may be another factor (besides safe-haven buying) which will help support gold in the near term.
The walk-in cash trade was average today and the phones were slow. Considering we are making new recent highs in gold and the technical picture belongs to the bulls I would have expected more action.
The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “3” for Thursday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (Wednesday – 3) (Thursday – 3) (Friday – 3) (Monday – 5) (Tuesday – 5) (Wednesday – 3). The scale (1 through 10) is a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.
On the new GoldDealer.com site: Comex closing prices are posted on the home page and individual product landing pages. Live pricing on the site moves all bullion products up or down during the day. We reworked the All Bullion Products link on the home page. It now includes our Bid (blue) and Ask (green) prices. Premium quotes vary with product and look like this – “spot plus $15.00” or “spot plus $50.00” and bullion products list them under the live prices on their respective landing pages. This makes product comparison simple and GoldDealer.com is the only precious metal site on the net with this transparency. Live Chat is doing well and new customers like setting up their own encrypted accounts. We recommend upgrading old browsers to Google Chrome (free/secure) especially as our site becomes more advanced. Sign up for our daily Gold Newsletter on the Gold Newsletter page if you are so inclined.
Email confirmation when buying or selling is functional. We are still working on the PDF file which will create an invoice on your computer which is the same as if you did the transaction in person.
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