Commentary for Friday, Feb 7, 2014 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed up $5.70 today at $1263.30 reacting to a number of cross-currents. The dollar was weaker on news that the January jobs number came in considerably under expectation. This is yet another sign that the economy might still be sluggish after a few months of improving numbers. All of which gives rise to a number of interesting scenarios.
Some commentators are wondering if the massive bond buying stimulus is no longer an effective policy. Some have been saying for months that because systemic economic problems in the US have not really been addressed we could be facing a prolonged period of stagnant growth or even deflationary waves similar to what has happened to Japan after their economic party was over with more than 10 years ago.
Stocks rallied somewhat so Wall Street ignored the poor jobs reports and blamed the severe weather.
So you can see gold remains a mixed bag but did trade higher on the week up $23.50 versus the $25.00 decline last week. So choppy would be a good word to use in describing gold of late. Keep in mind however we did test important higher resistance levels ($1270.00) these last two weeks but failed to gather follow through interest so something is going on relative to flight capital.
But it appears unlikely the Federal Reserve will do anything to change its taper plans so factor this important aspect into your buying plans.
Silver closed up $0.02 today at $19.92 failing again to hold the higher ground above $20.00 yet still supported by a firmer gold market. Still let’s acknowledge the strong $0.82 gain on the week which has attracted aggressive buyers in the big three (90% silver bags, 1 oz rounds, and Monster Boxes).
Platinum closed up $4.00 at $1379.00 and palladium closed down $1.00 at $709.00. Platinum was only up $3.00 on the week despite the continuing strike of mine workers in South Africa.
And now the famous Kitco Survey – Survey Participants Forecast Higher Gold Prices For Next Week – (Kitco News) – Positive technical price charts for gold could encourage the yellow metal to move higher next week, as a majority of participants in the weekly Kitco News Gold Survey forecast higher prices. In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 23 responded this week. Sixteen see prices up, while four see prices down and three see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. Last week, participants were bullish. As of noon EST, Comex April gold prices were up about $23 an ounce on the week. Participants who see higher values said gold prices continue to hold in a series of lower lows, which bodes well. Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, said even though gold is stuck in a range, with $1,280 as the ceiling and last week’s low of $1,237 as the floor, prices are trending higher. “The market is climbing up a trend line and the 20-day (moving average), and does look like it wants to trade higher. When it trades through $1,280, there should be a quick move to $1,300-plus, maybe $1,313 or even $1,335. The dollar remains as the most important influence for gold, but the correlation to equities seems to be lessening somewhat. One of the problems for gold right now is that there are less participants and less momentum. Gold will close well above last week’s close of $1,239 and I expect it (will) be higher next week,” Lesh said. Those who see weaker prices said in part they’re disappointed gold can’t break through the tough resistance at the $1,280 level. “We tried to rally (Friday), but gold is flagging up here when it tries to take out $1,280. We have higher lows, but $1,280 is too tough…. I just don’t see gold having the momentum to go over $1,280, especially with a light data week next week,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures. The high for the year in April gold so far was $1,280.10 an ounce, hit on Jan. 27.
Activity with the walk-in cash trade was average today and the phones were steady.
The GoldDealer.com Activity Scale is a “4” for Friday. The CNI Activity Scale takes into consideration volume and the hedge book: (last Monday – 6) (last Tuesday – 7) (last Wednesday – 4) (last Thursday – 4) (Friday – 4). The scale is 1 through 10 and a reliable way to understand our volume numbers.
On the new GoldDealer.com site: Comex closing prices are posted (upper right hand corner of the home page) and are included on individual landing pages. Live pricing and the change function works: you can now compare the Comex close with live product pricing for a true value picture. The All Bullion Products link lists all products and includes all Bid (blue) and Ask (green) prices. Visitors overlook the All Bullion Products so we reworked the link. When you hover over it with your cursor the text is highlighted.
Premium quotes look like this – “spot plus $50.00” or “spot plus $3.00” and bullion products have them listed under the live prices. This makes product comparison easy and GoldDealer.com is the only site on the net with this transparency. For example click on the link American Gold Eagle and under Our Live Buy Price and Our Live Sell Price you will see: our Buy Premium Spot + $15.00 and our Sell Premium Spot + $50.00 – Easy.
Live Chat is doing well and new customers like setting up their own encrypted accounts. Improvements will continue through the 1st quarter of 2014. Let us know what you want. We recommend upgrading old browsers to Google Chrome (free/secure) especially as our site becomes more advanced.
Sign up for our daily Gold Newsletter on the Gold Newsletter page if you are so inclined and remember this is now live for you too so why not sound off? Reader insight is interesting and varied.
Email confirmation when you are buying works and further details are being added including wiring instructions. Email confirmation when you sell to us is still a work in progress.
The four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing (BullionDesk.com) is a big hit with the cash trade. This live stream moves all the buy/sell prices on each product so the cash buying public can see the markets move on a real time basis. The site uses the same pricing model so no more guessing.
Our best price guarantee (buying or selling) remains famous so call Kenny at 1-800-225-7531. And for more than 30 years we have guaranteed your complete satisfaction.
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer.
Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend.